“With the strong will of the political elites of both countries, no one can prevent a peace agreement”

The views expressed by Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan in a recent interview with his country's Public Television last week aroused considerable interest in Azerbaijan as well. In the same interview, Grigoryan stated that Azerbaijan and Armenia intend to sign a peace agreement by the end of the year.

Grigoryan said that the Armenian Foreign Minister met with Anthony Blinken in New York. After that, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan arranged  his meeting with Hikmet Hajiyev. “We discussed a number of issues, mainly between Armenia and Azerbaijan,” Grigoryan said.

The diplomat said that the terms for concluding a peace agreement were discussed: “We also talked about the delimitation of borders and the signing a peace agreement by the end of the year,” Grigoryan added.

According to Grigoryan, the demarcation is planned to be completed by the end of the year. Peace treaty and delimitation are interrelated.

Can a peace agreement be signed by the end of the year? Are both sides ready for this? We discussed the ideas voiced by Grigoryan with international affairs expert Elman Fattah.

* * *

Question: Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia Armen Grigoryan told  about reaching the agreements on signing a peace treaty with Azerbaijan by the end of this year and delimiting the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. Will all issues be resolved by the end of the year and will peace really be signed?

Answer: Consistent peaceful rhetoric has recently appeared in the statements of Armenian officials. This is definitely a positive thing. But how does this rhetoric compare with real political steps? This question is still open. For the signing of a final peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia, it is important that the parties come to an agreement on several fundamental issues. These are: the recognition of each other's territorial integrity, the resumption of delimitation works on the border line and the demarcation process, the withdrawal of Armenia's military units from Azerbaijan, from the territory of the former Nagorno-Karabakh, the solution of the issue of a corridor connecting Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan.

From A. Grigoryan's statement it is clear that so far an agreement has been reached on only one of these issues - on the delimitation of the border. The second important issue is the "recognition of territorial integrity" mentioned in the joint declaration of Azerbaijan, Armenia, France and the European Union within the framework of the Prague Summit of the European Political Union. There is no progress on two other important issues - the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the territory of Azerbaijan and the corridor. Although without the withdrawal of Armenian troops, it is impossible not only to sign a final peace treaty, but in general to achieve serious progress in peace negotiations. From this point of view, the signing  peace between the two countries before the end of the year is doubtful.

Question: Grigoryan's statement caused a contradiction. He announced international mechanisms for Azerbaijan to discuss the security and rights of Karabakh Armenians. And Azerbaijani officials both before and after this statement stated and continue to state that negotiations with the Karabakh Armenians are an internal affair of Azerbaijan. Do you think  it is right? How should this issue be resolved?

Answer: The issue of the security of the Armenian population of the former Nagorno-Karabakh is also an integral part of the Brussels process. The Azerbaijani side has repeatedly spoken about its readiness to provide guarantees for their security. This is a "security instead of status" formula, in which there is nothing that could irritate official Baku. As far as the question of rights is concerned, whether it is the Moscow process or the Brussels process, none of them touches the question of "rights". That is, despite Grigoryan's statement, there is no question of "rights" in the international framework of negotiations. This is a question of the good will of Azerbaijan.

As for how the issue should be resolved, yes, the security of the Armenian population and all its rights as citizens of Azerbaijan should be ensured. The problem here is the presence in Azerbaijan of cardinal problems related to the provision of rights in general. Azerbaijan is a country of post-Soviet geography, dominated by a tough authoritarian regime. Under these conditions, it is impossible to grant exclusive rights to any group of the population, since there is no political will to ensure the quality of the rights of all citizens. A comprehensive solution to the issue should take place in the form of real political reforms in the country, the establishment of electoral democracy and the improvement of the institution of local self-government. But there is no hope for this. In connection with violations of the rights of citizens, human rights problems in Azerbaijan, there is also a threat that the claims of the Armenian side regarding "rights" will become the subject of international negotiations.

Question: Another contradiction is connected with the cards. Grigoryan said that “The border between Armenia and Azerbaijan was delimited in 1929. It remains to come to a mutual agreement that we accept this as a basis, as the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan.” But the Azerbaijani side takes the maps of 1919-1920 as a basis. Even the Armenian newspaper “Haikakan Zhamanak” wrote about the fact that a demand had been put forward in connection with this. But the Prague Agreement is based on adherence to the UN Charter, the Alma-Ata Declaration of 1991. How, in your opinion, will this issue be resolved?

Answer: Grigoryan's statement about maps reflects reality. If you remember, in one of the previous interviews, answering your question, I also stated that the delimitation between Azerbaijan and Armenia ended during the Soviet era. The last revised document was signed by Ilham Aliyev's father, First Secretary of the Azerbaijan SSR Heydar Aliyev in 1969. In any case, Ilham Aliyev will not consider the document signed by his father invalid. As for the assertion that the Azerbaijani side took the maps of 1919-1920 as a basis, then, to be honest, I have not seen an official statement of such a position from Azerbaijan. As for the solution of the problem, the parties must come to an agreement on the basis of the maps that existed during the Soviet era, which existed at the time of admission to the UN, according to which the territory of Azerbaijan is 86.6 sq. km, and Armenia - 29.8 sq. km, and it should not dispute, that the former Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan.

Question: Who and in what form can prevent a peace agreement?

Answer: No one can prevent a peace agreement if there is a strong will of the political elites of both countries . The problem is that the political elite of Armenia is seriously dependent on the influence of the diaspora, the church, the Kremlin. On the other hand, the Azerbaijani authorities are official allies of Russia. This alliance shows the possibility of official Moscow's influence on Baku. Russia is not interested in peace in the Caucasus. From this point of view, the presence of a firm will of mainly of Armenia and, in a certain sense, of the Azerbaijani authorities to sign peace is questionable. The answer to this question will be how much Putin's Russia has weakened or strengthened in previous periods. The weakening of Russia means overcoming the biggest barrier on the path to peace, and strengthening means the collapse of hopes for peace.

Question: What specific steps should both countries take to reach a peace agreement?

Answer: The first step towards peace could be an interstate agreement between the two countries "On mutual recognition of territorial integrity." The next step should be the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the territory of Azerbaijan. Only after this  it is possible to sign the final peace treaty, including the clarification of borders, the opening of communications, the mutual solution of the issue of the corridor (from Armenia to Khankendi, from Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan).