In 2015 US will be ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production, reads the annual World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Last year IEA forecasted in its report that the US will become the world biggest oil maker later – by 2017.
“The US has been moving confidently towards the energy self-sufficiency,” reads the IEA report.
The predicted leadership of the US is accounted for production of oil in North Dakota and Texas using non-traditional methods, such as horizontal drilling and hydraulic seam fracture. According to the IEA forecasts, by 2020 oil production in the US will reach its peak and then it will start declining, because of limited resources of hard to extract oil.
“In the future we see two leaders at the oil markets. Till 2020 production of hard to extraction oil will keep on growing. As Brazilian oil supply will grow, demand in oil from Middle East will decrease in the coming years,” Fatikh Birol, IEA Senior Economist, said in his interview to Reuters. “However, Middle Eastern oil will dominate at the market after 2020 again,” he added.
Despite introduction of the technologies for production of new types of energy resources, operation of ultra deep fields and increase in the coefficient of the fields output, “the world is not on the threshold of a new era of oil abundance,” IEA believes. “None of the countries will be able to achieve such a success in extraction of oil from the hard to reach beds, as the US,” explained the agency.
IEA forecasts that by 2035 oil price will grow up to $128 per barrel. IEA earlier forecasted that by 2035 oil price will reach $125 per barrel.
It was reported in early October that for the first time since the early 1980s US was ahead of Russia in natural gas production and now it threatens to go ahead in oil production. According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), this could happen already in July 2013, when US produced 22 million barrels of oil against 21.8 million barrels by Russia.
According to the analysts, during the past five years US reduced natural gas import by 32% and crude oil by 15% and switched to its own energy resources.
In January 2013 BP released the updated version of the forecast, according to which this year US wil be ahead of Saudi Arabia and Russia in production of liquid hydrocarbons and bio fuel. According to BP, from 2013 to 2023 Russia will occupy the second place in liquid fuel production and then give this place to Saudi Arabia. By 2027 Saudi Arabia will displace US and again become the world oil leader.—0-
Economics
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