Is the increase in gas exports from Azerbaijan to Europe an illusion or a reality?

On December 19, the European Parliament adopted a resolution addressing the repressions against civil society and independent media in Azerbaijan. The resolution stated that since 2023, the Azerbaijani government has systematically pressured civil society, political opposition, human rights defenders, the LGBTI+ community, and independent media, with these pressures intensifying ahead of the COP29 summit.

The export trunk gas pipeline Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod has recently garnered heightened global attention. This is not due to its rank among the top five longest pipelines in the world (spanning 4,451 km) but because it is the last operational pipeline through which Russia delivers gas to Europe. Its operation could cease on January 1, 2025.

As the potential halt to Russian gas transit through Ukraine approaches—scheduled for 5 a.m. Ukrainian time on January 1, 2025—effectively signaling the cessation of pipeline gas supplies from Russia to major EU economies in Central and Western Europe, EU nations and the newly updated European Commission (EC) leadership have intensified consultations on ensuring Europe's energy security.

The meeting of the newly elected Secretary General Mark Rutte with President Erdoğan in Ankara on November 25 was aimed not so much at familiarizing himself with the member countries but at holding direct discussions about ongoing developments in the region. This is understandable, as the closer the date for Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House approaches, the more intense the situation on the Russia-Ukraine front becomes. On the other hand, despite the latest reconciliation between Israel and Lebanon, questions surrounding Gaza’s future are growing in number.