Two trios of six partners

Since the start of the program in 2009, which became a continuation of the Neighborhood Policy (2004), Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, which entered the European integration “treadmill”, showed different speeds of advancement in the West direction. The first three were outsiders. Armenia and Azerbaijan were involved in battles for Karabakh; Belarus, pressed by Brussels for violation of human rights, completely suspended membership in the program in May this year. The leaders of the "race" Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine decided to break away and formed the "Associated Trio" in May this year in order to accelerate the integration process and teach the status of a candidate for EU membership.

In Baku and Yerevan, Michel paid attention to three aspects that will enable Armenia and Azerbaijan, as members of the EaP, to stabilize the situation in order to continue the interrupted dialogue within the framework of the European partnership. This includes 1) measures to prevent the escalation of violence and the establishment of confidence-building measures, 2) infrastructure cooperation, providing for the opening of transport communications, and 3) work on a peace treaty.

The EU is interested that by December of this year, at which the Eastern Partnership summit is planned, both between the members of the program and between Brussels and the capitals of the six states, equal-level horizontal relations, which are now violated, will be established. If the question were about holding the summit now, it would not be possible due to the contradictions between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the EU with Belarus.

In these conditions, a supporting role is assigned to the leaders of the process - the group of the "Associated Trio", whose presidents, in the presence of the head of the European Council at the Batumi international conference "The Power of Gravity of the European Union and Transformation of the Region" the rescue of the Eastern Partnership program. Because of the current Armenian-Azerbaijani and Belarusian-European relations, the summit is seen as problematic.

It is no coincidence that during Michel's talks in Yerevan, Baku and Batumi, despite the mention of the values, human rights of democracy, pragmatic emphasis was placed on unifying forms of cooperation, which, from the point of view of interests, cannot be abandoned by any member of the partnership:

1. Transport

2. Energy

3. Digital conversion

4. Green economy

5. Justice and home affairs

6. Strategic communications

7. Healthcare

Of course, there are some bilateral agendas of the EU with each EaP partner, such as the fight against corruption in Moldova and Ukraine, democratization in Azerbaijan and Belarus, parliamentary dialogue between the authorities and the opposition in Georgia and Armenia.

In fact, Michel's visit to the Caucasus left more questions than answers to the crisis of the Eastern Partnership. President Aliyev, as in the past, is trying to confine himself to the messianic role of maintaining the energy security of Europe and the development of the TRACECA transport corridor. After his second re-election, Prime Minister Pashinyan is immersed in public discussions about the future of Armenia in the context of defeat by Azerbaijan. President Lukashenko is blackmailing the EU with the collapse of the EaP if the sanctions persist, and the "Associated Trio" is limited in its actions by the impending Russian threat.

Under such conditions, the perspectives of the December EaP summit looks vague. Even the “Associated Trio”, which expresses its commitment to the EaP, with the Batumi Declaration makes it clear that it wants to break away from the ballast of the three outsiders of the process. Perhaps for the EU, the transition from a six-sided format to two trilateral looks much more realistic and it will simply have to be announced this fall. Otherwise, Brussels will be forced to postpone the EaP summit until better times.