Conflict Around Iran Threatens New Escalation: Could Azerbaijan Be Drawn In?

Only a few months ago, the Iranian authorities presented the Strait of Hormuz as their main instrument of strategic pressure against the West. Nearly one fifth of global oil trade passes through this narrow maritime corridor, and Tehran long assumed that the threat of closing it could deter the United States and its allies from direct confrontation.

When Trump announced the decision, global markets interpreted it as more than a tactical pause. For many observers, the move signaled a deeper strategic shift: Washington, while demonstrating readiness to apply military pressure on Iran, is simultaneously trying to avoid a war whose consequences could extend far beyond the Middle East.

Amid rising risks of escalation around Iran and across the wider Middle East, a less visible but strategically significant dynamic is taking shape. Azerbaijan — a country traditionally associated with energy and geopolitical balancing — is gradually emerging in a new role: that of a humanitarian transit hub.

In this context, analysts are turning their attention to Afghanistan, which could become a key link in a new route bypassing Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. However, active development and use of this route are constrained by the Taliban’s limited capacity to enable Afghanistan to play such a role.