The zeal of electoral alliances or the skill of leaders?

The beginning of the election, which is decisive for two main competitors in the 100-year history of the Republic of Turkey, should be considered normal. Because one of those competitors is trying to subjugate the institutions of the republic completely to himself, while the opponent on the opposite pole, which is the founder of the republic, disagrees with this reality and tries to restore the lost state structure.

The current president Erdoğan, who ran for the third time without the obstacle of the High Election Council, did not delay in warning Meral Akşener, the leader of the İYİ Party, the second-ranking political body of the opposition bloc. 2 days later, when the building of the party's Istanbul provincial organization was fired from outside, Akşener, who went to the scene without her bodyguards, challenged the head of state once again, and the next day, Mr. Erdoğan repeated his warning even more sharply: "You should know very well who you are against."

Yes, Erdoğan, who is currently the most experienced personality in Turkish politics and state administration, is sure that the policy of increasing tension, which he has been circulating for years on the eve of the elections, will come to the rescue in the elections on May 14 as well. Therefore, on the eve of the start of the official election campaign, while accusing the presidential candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and other parties of the opposition bloc, he could not hold his temper and linked them to the "connection with a terrorist organization" and LGBT. Raising the rating of the ruling bloc aside, it is necessary to admit that Mr. Erdoğan's words have a significant benefit in keeping both the AKP and the People’s Alliance consolidated.

We have written many times before that blaming his opponents on religion will be one of the methods that Mr. Erdoğan will use most in his pre-election campaign. Even the AKP introduced that method before Mr. Erdoğan and accused Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the candidate of the opposition bloc, of posing for a photo by stepping his foot on the small carpets thrown on top of the big carpets after an iftar party. So to say, those small carpets were prayer rugs on which prayers were performed, and the main opposition leader deliberately disrespected religion. AKP leader, head of state and presidential candidate Erdoğan, as he played an active role in these accusations, did not stop there and directly linked the leader of the main opposition party, which is his main opponent in the election, with a terrorist organization. As if these accusations will not be interrupted, the period of propaganda will be left behind in this way by being "enriched" with new accusations.

As for the practical work: against this tactic of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who tries to influence the masses by adding as much pragmatism as possible to emotional promises, since the candidate of the opposition bloc has no alternative but to make promises, we have written about the "instruments" of his opponent Erdoğan before: banknote machines of the Central Bank, Treasury, etc. After the February 6th earthquake, the AKP and Mr. Erdoğan did not stop at making the government's work in natural disaster areas a part of their election campaign and took the next tactical step by nominating the “heavy guns of the government” as candidates for parliament from those regions.

This tactical step follows the policy of winning the parliamentary election by a large margin in case of losing the presidential election and keeping his supporters around him in this way. The period of campaigning for the candidates for the post of deputy, which started on March 18, started on March 31 for the candidates for the presidency.

Despite all the controversies, Mr. Erdoğan's candidacy for the third time has undoubtedly raised the mood of his supporters. Regardless of the efforts made by the People’s Alliance to attract even the smallest parties to its side, the presence of Erdoğan helps to predict that a certain number of voters, who have not anchored anywhere, will return to their leaders, despite the fact that he has cooled off from the AKP.

The situation should not please the opposition bloc too much if the AKP's voters, who are "not up to the market, but up to the grave" supporters of Erdoğan, do not demonstrate the same activity shown by the opposition bloc on social media and remain silent. Because since 20 years, the number of those silent voters who have received money, food, clothing, and credit assistance from the government directly under the instructions of Mr. Erdoğan and the organization of the AKP exceeds 12 million. The advantage given to AKP by the electoral law shows that the support of that mass will be of decisive benefit to AKP, especially in the parliamentary elections.

Look, as Mustafa Kemal Atatürk said, “in this mood and conditions”, objective public opinion polls also show that the difference between presidential candidates Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu is not very big. That's why the two leaders are forced to demonstrate their skills in the upcoming 40-day marathon.