Three Factors Reducing Oil Revenues in Azerbaijan

The year 2024 presents significant challenges for Azerbaijan's oil and gas industry, indispensable in generating income and attracting investments for the independent Azerbaijani economy. The reduction in oil production (1), the increase in operational and transportation costs (2), and the relative decrease in global market prices (3) contribute to the decline in oil and gas revenues. This article explores the reasons for the declining resource revenues in Azerbaijan in recent years and assesses the current situation based on the factors above.

The internationally reputable rating agency Fitch Ratings upgraded Azerbaijan's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating (IDR) from "BB+" to "BBB-" — an investment-grade rating (!) with a stable outlook, but highlighted several obstacles hindering the country's economic progress.

The Azerbaijani government, through its budget formation and statistical accounting structures, reported that it concluded the first half of the economic year on a "positive note."

International rating agency Moody's has affirmed the issuer ratings and senior unsecured ratings of the government of Azerbaijan in foreign currency at Ba1 and has revised the outlook from stable to positive. The same ratings have been assigned to the Southern Gas Corridor CJSC (SGC or SGC).