Putin Congratulates and Pressures at the Same Time

Why Armenia's Elections Have Become a New Arena of Struggle Between Moscow and Yerevan

Just days before Armenia's parliamentary elections, the political atmosphere in the country has reached a boiling point. What began as another domestic confrontation between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's governing team and the opposition has gradually evolved into a geopolitical contest involving the interests of Russia, Europe, the United States, and Armenian society itself.

The contradiction was symbolized by an event that occurred on the eve of the campaign's final stage. Russian President Vladimir Putin sent birthday congratulations to Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The gesture appeared to reflect diplomatic courtesy between two formal allies. At the same time, however, according to Armenian authorities and many Western observers, the Kremlin continues to conduct a large-scale campaign aimed at weakening Pashinyan's position ahead of the June 7 vote.

In Yerevan, these developments are viewed not merely as part of an election campaign but as an attempt to influence the country's future from outside. Armenian officials argue that Moscow is seeking to prevent the consolidation of Armenia's increasingly pro-European orientation and its efforts to reduce dependence on Russia.

Allegations of Russian Interference

In recent weeks, Western governments have become increasingly vocal about Russia's activities in Armenia. A new wave of attention followed a Reuters report citing sources within Western intelligence services who alleged that Russia was conducting an operation designed to influence the outcome of the Armenian elections.

According to the report, intelligence officials from several Western countries provided documents indicating the existence of a broad disinformation campaign intended to support pro-Russian political figures in Armenia. The report also described an alleged plan to transport tens of thousands of Armenians living in Russia to Armenia for the purpose of participating in the vote.

According to the same sources, Moscow is placing particular hopes on billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, who is viewed as one of Russia's potential political partners in Armenia. The report further stated that the Kremlin established a special body known as the Directorate for Strategic Cooperation and Partnership, which is allegedly responsible for coordinating efforts to preserve Russian influence across the post-Soviet space, including Armenia.

Particular attention has been paid to the Armenian diaspora in Russia. Various estimates suggest that approximately two million Armenians reside there. However, Armenian parliamentary elections do not permit voting from abroad. For that reason, Armenian authorities tightened controls in advance to prevent any organized transportation of voters into the country.

According to information cited by Western sources, Moscow allegedly allocated approximately fifty million dollars to support the operation. Reports further claimed that Russian regional authorities were given targets specifying how many Armenians should be encouraged or assisted in traveling to Armenia to participate in the election.

The Kremlin has officially denied such allegations. Nevertheless, the issue of Russian interference has become one of the central themes of the election campaign.

Why Pressure May Be Backfiring

The paradox of the current situation is that several measures that were expected to weaken Pashinyan's government appear to have produced the opposite effect.

In particular, restrictions imposed on Armenian exports to Russia generated significant public attention. The Russian market remains one of the most important destinations for Armenian exports, making such measures especially sensitive for the country's economy.

However, many Armenians interpreted these restrictions not as economic decisions but as politically motivated actions. As a result, Moscow's policies contributed to growing distrust of Russia and strengthened the position of those advocating a more independent foreign policy course.

Armenian media outlets have regularly published analyses portraying sanctions and trade restrictions as instruments of political pressure. Experts note that such tactics have reinforced among many citizens the belief that Armenia must diversify its international partnerships.

Even some Russian political analysts acknowledge that Moscow's efforts to impose its preferred political scenario on Armenia have thus far failed to achieve the desired results.

Moscow's Preferred Candidates: Kocharyan and Karapetyan

The most prominent figures associated with the pro-Russian political camp remain former President Robert Kocharyan and businessman Samvel Karapetyan.

Despite considerable promotion of Karapetyan, Kocharyan remains the most experienced and influential opposition politician. His political experience, public speaking abilities, and skill in addressing emotionally sensitive issues continue to provide him with a significant advantage.

Compared with Kocharyan, Karapetyan appears considerably less convincing. Although he has achieved success in business, he possesses little experience in major political campaigns. Some of his public statements have attracted criticism even among opposition supporters.

One example was his assertion that the Pashinyan government intended to allow the return of hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis to Armenia and to establish an Azerbaijani theater in Yerevan. Critics viewed these remarks as an attempt to mobilize voters through emotional and nationalist narratives.

Kocharyan has pursued a different strategy. His campaign is built around a clearly defined geopolitical platform.

According to the former president, the region is witnessing a major struggle between Russia and the West, and Armenia risks finding itself on the frontline of that confrontation. He argues that the European Union and the United States are attempting to push Russia out of the South Caucasus and that Armenia's participation in this process runs counter to its national interests.

Kocharyan warns that deteriorating relations with Russia could have severe economic consequences for Armenia. As evidence, he points to the country's significant dependence on the Russian market for exports and trade.

Karabakh and Turkey Remain Central Issues

The most sensitive issues for Armenian society continue to be the fate of Karabakh and relations with Turkey. Kocharyan has built a substantial part of his campaign around these topics.

The former president argues that the loss of Karabakh resulted from the Pashinyan government's decision to recognize the region as part of Azerbaijan without coordination with Russia. According to Kocharyan, there had been an opportunity to preserve Armenian influence in the region through a Russian-backed settlement formula.

In his interpretation, this would have involved granting Russian border guards control over transport routes connecting Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan while excluding Western or American involvement.

Kocharyan is equally critical of efforts to normalize relations with Turkey. He accuses the current authorities of attempting to rewrite history in order to improve relations with Ankara.

Furthermore, he argues that the reopening of regional transport links does not necessarily guarantee economic benefits for Armenia. On the contrary, he believes such developments could damage Armenia's relations with Iran, one of the country's few remaining stable regional partners.

As a result, pro-Russian candidates continue to promote narratives that closely mirror Moscow's foreign policy positions. Thus far, however, these arguments have failed to generate a significant increase in public support.

What the Polls Show

Recent opinion surveys indicate that Nikol Pashinyan continues to maintain a clear lead despite deep political polarization within Armenian society.

According to the International Republican Institute, the prime minister remains the most trusted political figure among Armenian voters. Robert Kocharyan ranks second, followed by Samvel Karapetyan.

Other surveys likewise demonstrate an advantage for the ruling Civil Contract party. According to Gallup International, 24.3 percent of respondents are prepared to vote for Civil Contract. Samvel Karapetyan's Strong Armenia party receives 13.4 percent support. Prosperous Armenia, led by Gagik Tsarukyan, attracts 7.9 percent, while Robert Kocharyan's Armenia Alliance receives 5.5 percent.

Additional surveys place support for Pashinyan's party even higher, at approximately 27 percent.

A Choice Between Past and Future

With only six days remaining before the vote, Armenia's political landscape has reached a moment of maximum tension. The election is no longer simply a contest between parties and political leaders. It has evolved into a choice between two competing visions of the country's future.

One path emphasizes maintaining Armenia's traditional orientation toward Russia as its principal security guarantor and key economic partner. The other seeks to deepen cooperation with Europe and the United States, despite the uncertainties and risks associated with such a strategic shift.

Regardless of the final outcome, it is already clear that the 2026 parliamentary elections have become one of the most consequential political tests Armenia has faced in recent decades. The results will determine not only the composition of the next government but also the geopolitical direction of the country for years to come.