Containing the Russian threat to international order

In an emotionally charged speech to the Verkhovna Rada on October 16, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented his "Victory Plan"—a bold and multi-layered roadmap to end the war with Russia. The plan, consisting of five public points and three secret appendices, combines geopolitical, military, and economic strategies, portraying Ukraine's determination to regain control and force Russia into diplomacy. However, behind the rhetoric of strength and resolve lie important questions: Is this truly a plan for peace, or does it risk escalating an already volatile conflict?

In a move that underscores Russia's strategic interest in the South Caucasus, Sergei Naryshkin, Director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), visited Baku earlier this week, holding high-level meetings with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and officials from Azerbaijan's intelligence agencies. The visit, held on October 2-3, highlights Moscow’s intention to reinforce its influence in the region amid a backdrop of growing anti-Western rhetoric from both Russian and Azerbaijani leadership.

The September 17, 2024 summit in Astana between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the heads of Central Asian states marks a critical moment in regional diplomacy. Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasized the importance of this evolving dialogue, highlighting its strategic significance in a world grappling with geopolitical instability. As the two regions deepen their ties, this summit reflected growing attention to economic diversification, energy security, and technological cooperation.

Kazakhstan, situated at a complex geopolitical crossroads in Central Asia, is striving to maintain a delicate balance as Western powers tighten sanctions against Russia amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. While adhering to sanctions remains part of the national strategy, the country faces significant challenges in maintaining this precarious position without compromising its own economic interests or regional stability.