The Almaty Temptation of Azerbaijan and Armenia

In a significant development poised to reshape regional dynamics, the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia will convene in Almaty on May 10 for the first talks on the Kazakh platform, an initiative proposed by Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev during his recent diplomatic visits to Baku and Yerevan.

The choice of Kazakhstan as an equidistant venue for direct bilateral negotiations is strategic and marks a deliberate turnaround by traditional international mediators such as the European Union, the United States, Germany and France, which followed the Prague meeting in October 2022. At it, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reaffirmed their commitment to the 1991 Alma-Ata Declaration on mutual recognition of the borders established at the time of the collapse of the USSR. Moscow, which has historically played a key role in the region, also supports this step towards direct bilateral negotiations, emphasizing its commitment to the Alma Ata Declaration, a framework program, ironically initiated by Russia itself.

The selection of Kazakhstan was influenced by three key factors. First, the potential peace agreement, which has been gradually approaching three years after the 44-day war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, could symbolically be signed in Alma-Ata, the city that marked the start of independence for both nations in 1991. Second, Kazakhstan’s geographic and political distance from major geopolitical centers makes it a neutral ground acceptable to all parties involved in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Lastly, Kazakhstan has previously facilitated significant diplomatic engagements, such as the Astana peace process in 2017, which made notable strides in addressing the conflict in Syria.

This upcoming dialogue in Almaty is underpinned by a broad consensus among the involved mediators on the structure of the peace treaty, as well as substantial support from both the Armenian and Azerbaijani publics. The process of delimiting the border between the two nations is already underway, signaling a mutual commitment to achieving lasting peace.

Expectations are high that these talks could lead to the signing of a formal peace treaty in Alma-Ata as soon as September 2024. This timing would strategically align with the period following Azerbaijan's parliamentary elections, scheduled for July-August and just before COP29, which is anticipated to be a major international climate summit with significant geopolitical implications. The participation of Prime Minister Pashinyan in such a high-profile event would underscore the global significance of the peace agreement, potentially heralding a new era of stability and cooperation in the region.