Denying reality does not mean escaping it

***

- Arastun bey, lately government officials and deputing of the ruling party have made interesting statements. For example, Siyavush Novruz are charging former ministers with treasuring up riches and financing emigrants abroad. What is more, another member of the ruling party, Eldar Ibrahimov titled those in power and with deputy mandates as enemies of the nation. What are all these statements about?

- It should be remembered that a greater portion of these statements is true. For instance, Siyavush Novruzov is right in saying that ministers and members of "Yeni Azerbaijan" Party" ransacked the country and the nation by misappropriating billions. All of them provided their heirs to riches at the expense of captured booty. The truth about the rule of "Yeni Azerbaijan" Party" was made known by one of its top functionaries. In pursuit of "witches" Eldar Ibrahimov revealed profound irremovable failures inside the power caused by several factors.

The first and basic: split inside the ruling regime where uncontrolled groups are stepping up struggle for power. In Azerbaijan, the crisis of the system enters into its final stage mainly characterized by the split inside the power and the strengthening of antagonistic differences between split groupings.

However, these differences have always been typical for the ruling regime. The point is that they were not apparent earlier due to a strong center. It may be concluded that from now on there is no longer unified control center to sort the situation out. Another reason are forthcoming parliamentary elections. Note that the risk of losing mandate at any moment for compulsory majority, except for 5-10 persons, is rather great. It transpires that rough, scandalous statements are to be made to remain in the agenda, or even file menacing messages in an effort to preserve a mandate in the elections. On the other hand, under Eldar Ibrahimov"s statements are meant his colleagues who left groups they were members of to join other groups.

However, there remains possibility of the third reason, i.e. the authorities staged this discussion to distract the public opinion from deplorable situation in all the regions of the country. To my thinking, the last reason seems to be untenable, though one cannot rule out that.

- Eldar Ibrahimov was retaliated promptly by assistant to President Ali Hasanov and vice-premier Ali Ahmedov. They declared that Ibrahimov"s views do not reflect position of the ruling party and Ilham Aliyev"s administration. What do you think, are the ruling party and the authorities as a whole torn into internal strife in their approaches to the current situation?

- In all probability, his views are not reflective of the position of the leadership of the ruling party and presidential administration. It is no mere coincidence that representatives of the both structures responded in the above manner. There is not a mere difference in opinions both in the ruling party and the authorities; there is a profound split that tends to deepen from day to day. The problem is that the current authorities have never had any strategic plan over any issues; that it is unprepared to today"s crisis even despite the fact that mass media, experts have for years drawn public attention to the deplorable situation in the country and inevitable crisis.

It should be recognized that crisis situations call for special technologies and management for their resolution. Otherwise, any impulsive measures aimed at resolving crisis, just aggravate it. Such are realities of today.

It"d be appropriate to draw your attention to the second aspect of the problem: where competition and struggle between intra-power structures aggravate, there is a heightened interference with economic positions of the conflicting parties, spheres they control. As a result, consequences of this confrontation tell on social plight of the population. Unfortunately, intra-power wars reached a degree where participants of these wars must have forgotten about millions of country"s citizens; about their day to day life and needs. Historically, where people"s needs are ignored, they have to show themselves, sometimes too late.

- Noteworthy is the fact that for some time past the charimen of the parties at the parliament, titled as opposition, have made interesting statements. Thus, Gudrat Hasanguliyev insists that the time is ripe to start self- purging in power. In turn, Sardar Jalalogly says that even sitting ministers decline from protecting the authorities. All of them are engaged in compromising each other. What forces the above-mentioned persons to make statements of this sort?

-Gudrat Hasanguliyev has always been making such statements and even more radical. That"s not for the first time. It may be regarded a prescription for the power to get out of the current deadlock. However, it looks like an aspirin prescribed by a doctor to an agonizing patient. In my view, attempts to put "somebody out of action" under current circumstances are sure to increasingly aggravate the situation and bring in a greater dissidence. As noted above, under the current situation it is essential to apply anti-crisis technologies and thus gain, at least, a stabilizing effect.

It should be recognized that today all governmental and non-governmental institutions of the country to explore and apply the said technologies are out of order. As for reasons of the statements made above, all of them are reminiscent of mutual, unsystematic accusations arising from behind-the-scenes struggle. indeed, most of these statements are true.

- There is an opinion that interesting events are expected to occur on the political arena of Azerbaijan and that politicians who left politics years ago will appear again. For instance, Etibar Mamedov is said to return to the political arena in the nearest future. Can there be any changes on the political arena?

- Processes you call interesting I"d rather call dangerous, have already begun. It is natural that the enlivening in the political sphere urges everybody to earn political dividends. True, this is not to say that some people have no these rights or too few than others. The most pessimistic aspect of the issue is that the current political panorama of Azerbaijan differs from the situation 25-30 years ago, both by quality and composition of participants. Indeed, new persons entered the political arena in the reviewed period; however, there is no political party, movement or leader to represent a new, qualitatively different pattern capable of leading the nation. It is not talked of the power or the authority but of the entire political spectrum. Arguments cited above have both objective and subjective reasons причины. To sum up, it"d be appropriate to say that the political system of Azerbaijan is in profound crisis, this is a risky tendency.

One cannot forget that the problem is not confined to the social-political crisis in the country: impetuously growing economic recession and impoverishment of the population, social stratification has assumed abnormal level, lawlessness and illegality become ordinary for citizens, activities of state and governmental institutions are close to paralysis, etc. All these open wide opportunities for populism. It should be acknowledged that populism, both left and right, has become a trend in most countries worldwide. There is guarantee that Azerbaijan is firmly secured against it. At present, the most important thing is to start a large-scale dialogue in the country. It is solely a mutual understanding, trust and political will directed to getting the country out of the current crisis period with minimum losses. Regretfully, political polarization has gone deep so far in both camps that the very process of the dialogue seems unfeasible.

There is an urgent need in restoring the rule of law, and the authorities have greater potentialities in the matter than the opposition. But is that possible? Alas, I feel no optimism on this track. An emphasis is laid on strengthening of repression machinery. As it happens, this optimism is groundless, there no rosy picture.

- One of the interesting tendencies is intensification of activities of government officials in social networks. Some of them took Ali Kerimli as their aim; others oppositionists operating abroad. At any rate, social networks are noted for political claims. In your opinion, what led government officials to social networks?

- There are many reasons, in the first turn, this is ambitions of the authority that for years ignored role and importance of social media, to strike home. Besides, they realize the necessity of restoring ties with citizens. On the other hand, intra-power groups are seeking to avail of social media in the struggle against the opposition.

However, restoration of relations between the authorities and the citizens seem to be unrealistic. By most parameters, a greater portion of the authorities and ordinary people is in conflict with each other, and this is just a small part of issues to be addressed in social networks. On the other hand, social network activity calls for a certain experience and, the most important thing, is to benefit from the freedom of speech and expression appropriately.

However, they have nothing of this kind, for long years the government officials have actually been tabooed to express their view freely. For this reason, their presentations to the audience sometimes cause reverse reaction. Suffice it remember harsh reaction caused by statements and assessments of pro-governmental deputies. To my thinking, a picture in social networks will be different from this one.

- What do you think of processes to occur in Azerbaijan and how will they end?

-A reply to your shortest question is hardest and lengthy. As I noted above, unless prompt and rational steps are undertaken, political and, perhaps, social-economic crises are inevitable. It is not possible to estimate or forecast consequences of the crises now, even theoretically. Hopefully, there is still a chance, pessimistic though, to avoid it. The point is that the issue is not confined to domestic developments only. The picture of global policy is radically different from the one 5 years ago. Nowadays, main conflicts are typical for control over transport corridors, communications, sea and motor-roads. Note that China has joined geopolitical actors in the region as well.

It has to be kept in mind that today"s ambitions of Turkey and Iran are not those from 5-10 years ago. In turn, Russia has intensified its policy regarding post-Soviet countries, including interference with these countries" internal affairs. Allowing for the fact that these interests are diametrically opposite and that there are two main transport and communication corridors in Azerbaijan (north-south and east-west), it is hard to make any assumptions.

This notwithstanding, it is safe to say that successive, rational policy, in accord with national interests, would help avoiding oncoming excess. For this to happen, it is essential to foresee and reaffirm it. Denying reality does not mean escaping it.