Erdogan won but his party backed down

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-Elkhan-bey, preliminary results of the elections were promulgated in Turkey under which Erdogan gained a victory again. Muharrem Ince who pursued him at all stages unexpectedly retreated that caused some questions. Why did it happen? Were there any pressures, threats, intimidation, or Ince merely acknowledged his defeat?

-I don"t think that Muharrem Ince gave himself up; instead he sparkled earning sufficient votes. Should candidates from other parties won the same votes, the second round would take place. For instance, if Meral Akşener had 10% in place of 7%, the second round would be held to identify a winner and a very serious competitive struggle. When it comes to Ince"s declaration of Erdogan as a winner, it is normal in democratic countries. The point is that Erdogan made rings around Muharrem Ince by 22% of votes. Even despite supposed falsifications at some election districts, Muharrem Ince would unlikely close the gap. At any rate, Muharrem Ince"s deed commands respect. Besides, he is not going to withdraw from political activity. Instead, his political rating is sure to rise, and he will lead the party or create his own party. As a matter of fact, Muharrem Ince will gain in his rating due to the fact that the Turkish society has perceived him as a charismatic politician. He has gained success the Republican People"s Party (RPP) failed to do within 40 years of its existence. Thus, in 1977 the leftist party gained about 30% while the leftists were content with not more than 20-25% of votes. In other words, during the elections Muharrem Ince realized that he had lost.

- To be exact, he acknowledged his defeat...

- He knew that there were negative facts at some election districts. Upon second thought, he realized that even if these shortcomings had negative consequences for Erdogan, it would not be enough to conduct the second round. If Erdogan would gain slightly above 51%, it could be called in question, but the latter won slightly above 52%. Muharrem Ince realized that it was not possible to remove a difference in 22% of votes, so he conceded his defeat. I do not rule out that during his meeting with Erdogan, he will shake hands with him. Was there any alternative to the admission of the fact? Bringing people out onto the streets would aggravate Turkey"s current geopolitical situation. Besides, Ince is a state-minded person who assigns primary importance to state"s security. Therefore he preferred to address country"s challenges by means of dialogue, not confrontation.

- It should be noted that Muharrem Ince stood back prior to the declaration of the results of the elections. At the same time he made some contradictory statements. At first, he stated that "we shall lay claims to our votes". And an hour before his last statement about his Party"s concession the RPP confidently declared that the second round of the elections would be conducted. At the same time there were rumors that some CEC members tendered resignation, etc. Under the circumstance the Muharrem Ince"s last statement caused some doubts that led to another question of threats. But you insist that threats are hardly probable.

- In Turkey candidates involved in the political process in the course of the elections are more informed than ordinary people. And Ince is not alone, he has numerous aides, advisors who calculate and process information about falsifications. This is a political process, a struggle, rumors, misinformation, etc. I do not rule out the "Аnadolu" agency, as before, has currently been involved in certain manipulations. First, it was reported that Erdogan won 56% of votes, then a figure fell to 52%. At any rate, no manipulations and falsifications could have a serious impact on Erdogan"s indices. At best, some 100-200,000 votes could have been falsified. But if a difference in the votes goes to million, it is impossible to remove drawback. That"s why Ince took this into consideration and declined from aggravation the situation. He could declare that the results of the voting were falsified and that he did not recognize them. In this case Turkey with its current economic conditions and combat operations in Syria and Iraq proved to be disadvantaged dramatically and non-recognition of the results of the elections by Ince would be tantamount to the call to his supporters to take to the streets. That would lead to the revolution and Turkey would not withstand it properly. So Ince as a state-minded person adopted a right decision. But this is not say that he leaves the political arena. He specified that for him a 50-day election campaign is a very short term. Previously little-known politician, he competed on equal terms with Erdogan within 50 day and won 30% of votes. He declared that if his election campaign lasted not 50 days but 3-4 months, he would reach more appreciable results. I think that Ince"s future is ahead and a brilliant political career awaits him in perspective. He is a charismatic figure, has an excellent oratorical talent. In my view, he is even stronger as a politician as compared with his Party"s leader. He has every possibility to become a strong rival against the current President. Municipal elections will be held in Turkey in 9 months, and Ince is in position to do his utmost for supporters to win.

-One of the versions says that Ince"s last statement went to show that he is allegedly a man of the authorities to act under their scenario.

-All these are none other conspiracy theory. Those in Azerbaijan are also involved in holding discussions around various conspiracy theories. It is unthinkable that everything has been staged beforehand, and Ince has allegedly been nominated to approve Erdogan"s victory. Who knows but Ince suddenly won votes required for the second round? It transpires that no plan of this sort has been devised. We have well-known results to generate various conspiracy theories. Allegedly Kemal Kylycdarogly would not cede the victory of Erdogan. Or let"s remember previous Presidential elections with participation of a certain Ikmeleddin Ihsanogly. As a politician weaker than Ince, he won more votes than his opponent - 38% at the expense of support by two large Parties. But in the reviewed period the results of the elections were accepted, and nobody called people to take to the streets, to the revolution. The same is true today. I do not believe that Ince was a part of Erdogan-devised plan. Moreover, he was regarded as a competitor to Erdogan. Millions took to the streets in Izmir; mass meetings were held in Istanbul and Ankara. I cannot believe that Kemal Kylycdarogly could mobilize so many people to hold meetings. But Ince succeeded in doing that. He harshly criticized Erdogan for some trends of his political line. In my opinion, it is not a preconcerted scenario. Instead, there was another agreement: Erdogan entered into alliance with the MHP (Nationalistic Movement Party) and adopted a strategically correct decision; otherwise, he would not be elected as a resident in the first round.

- Some experts are prone to believe that following the elections Turkey has lost chances to follow the path of democracy and secularity. Others believe that the elections were the last chance of Turkey. Thirds allege that authoritarianism is sure to intensify in Turkey. Some analysts think that Erdogan will attempt to consolidate his power and not relinquish his hold but his entourage only. How far are these theories logic?

- These theories appear because Erdogan has been in power for more than 15 years and his methods of rule are causing certain questions. The point is that Erdogan has for 15 years invariably gained victory at all the elections, and even his contenders have to accept the fact. However, even his 52% at the elections mean that the remaining 48% of voters disapprove his policy. The figure is rather high. Under such circumstances no real autocracy is possible in Turkey. We watched the election campaign. The opposition held its meetings under absolutely normal conditions; TV-channels provided other nominees with air-time. I cannot believe in building autocracy and forming authoritative state in Turkey. Political parties and society in Turkey are strong. Citizens are aware of their rights. However strong is Erdogan; regardless of his stay in power, there is a certain system in the country to impede the establishment of authoritarianism and dictatorship in Turkey. Maybe, Erdogan would like to rule in such a society, yet he is in no position to overcome the obstacle because there is a certain line and a certain limit. True, there were complaints in society that Turkish mass media have been under control and that authoritarian methods of managements allegedly applied. There is the CHP in Turkey, like a newly established İYİ Party which are a great obstacle on the path of Turkey"s sliding into authoritarianism. Ince"s successful campaign went to show that Erdogan should be prudent in his policy, because he has both supporters and rivals to oppose him.

- What did the elections prove for Erdogan? What lessons can he derive from them and what can he change in his policy? Do you expect any reforms in Erdogan"s policy?

- I expect no changes. For 15 Erdogan has been engaged in various elections to continue his policy. He was interested in his victory at the present elections because he has extensive projects. The Turkish Republic marks its 100-anniversary in 2023. He is willing to head the state by the 100-anniversary and thus implement his plans. The world"s largest airport will be open on October 29. There are a large-scale "Istanbul canal" and other projects being realized jointly with Azerbaijan. He wants these projects to be associated with his name. This is a natural desire of any politician. A politician is seeking to stay at power as long as possible, attain successes and prolong his rule. Of course, it is talked of countries with democratic elections. But I do not believe that after the current elections Erdoganа will pursue any extraordinary goals. Instead, there may set in a certain power fatigue, as witnessed by Erdogan himself at a meeting when he first used a phrase "fatigue of metal". In other words, either ordinary people or the powers that are becoming tired. A question arises: why has Erdogan been elected again? A of the Turkish society believes that the country should continue Erdogan-led political line. The situation may change from bad to worse without Erdogan. It is hard to judge whether it is right or wrong. But the fact is that the fatigue tends to accumulate following a long staying in power as witnessed by Erdogan"s meetings. That"s why he won the elections, his Part ranked first at the Parliament which means that his associates will stay in power in Turkey for a certain period. However, the authorities risk facing challenges without innovations and economy"s development. It was reported in the course of the election campaign that prices for potatoes and onions sharply rose. Lately the Turkish lira rate against the dollar essentially dropped, paces of inflation intensified. Erdogan will have to address these issues. Muharrem Ince stressed these tendencies; otherwise, President"s rating may go down.

- Will there be any changes in the foreign policy?

- I expect no particular changes in the foreign policy, the previous political line will be continued. For some time past there are certain tensions between Turkey and the West. When Erdogan came to power earlier 2000s, relations with Europe were very close, and the country was going to become a EU member. However, later on, for objective and subjective reasons, there arose some tensions. The Turkish army is waging war in Syria and Iraq. This political line will not change. The strategic partnership with Azerbaijan will develop henceforth. Attempts will be made to get closer to America. Serious strategic partnership relations are going to be established with Russia. In other words, no changes are expected to take place in Turkey"s foreign policy.

- Preliminary results of the parliamentary elections are well-known. In his first address to the nation in the end of voting Erdogan declared that though they failed to attain their goals, they gained a sufficient number of votes. The AKP will quite a few seats at the Parliament. What goals did he mean?

- Erdogan won above 52% of votes, and his Party - 42%. The difference means that voters do not equate Erdogan with his Party. Erdogan has greater credibility than his Party. The latter ranking first at the elections has, nevertheless, lost votes in many regions of the country. This is explained as being due to the so-called "fatigue of metal". In this respect Erdogan proved to be right. This notwithstanding, an alliance with the MHP was a deliberate action to have rescued the ruling Party. Also, the role of Devlat Bahceli has increased, and Erdogan got, in a sense, hooked on Bahceli. In the aggregate, the two will have 339 votes at the Parliament. That"s quite enough to push forward any laws and resolutions even despite the fact that that the ruling Party has lost votes. In other words, if not Erdogan, the AKP would not be able to win the above-mentioned number of votes. Note that the AKP based its activity on Erdogan"s charisma. If fir some reason or other Erdogan would leave the politics, the AKP would not be able to win so many votes. It has to be kept in mind that Turkey the politics is built on leaders, including the CHP. During the said elections the Turks separated the CHP and Muharrem Ince. Of interest are details of Parliament formation. We shall still witness serious discussions at the Turkish Parliament.