The head of the General Staff of the Turkish Armed Forces, General Hulusi Akar, and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States, Joseph Dunford.
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- How do you assess the statement of President Erdogan?
- Erdogan's statement means that Turkey has made very serious calculations for conducting a new military operation on the other side of the border; for after crossing the border, the Turkish army could face not only the militants of the terrorist organization PYD / PKK, but also the US soldiers. However, current processes indicate that Turkey has conducted very serious diplomatic negotiations in connection with this operation.
I don"t think that the Turkish army will conduct a large-scale military action on the other side of the border. The idea is to go deep 15-20 kilometers on the Syrian territory, take it under control and evict a PYD / PKK from there. The fact that the US Special Representative in Syria, James Jeffrey, after consultations in Ankara, arrived in Gazientepe and held talks there with tribal leaders close to Barzani and Telebani, indicates a secret agreement between the US and Turkey on this issue.
The rapprochement of Turkey with Russia in various areas worries the United States. Therefore, the United States do not want to lose Turkey and remain alone in the processes occurring in the region. The main objective of the upcoming operation is to drive out the terrorist organization PYD / PKK into the depths of Syria from the regions close to the Turkish border, and create there a buffer zone.
The absence of an obvious reaction of the leading powers to the statement of President Erdogan indicates that Ankara had a detailed discussion of this issue with the security centers. At present, there is a buffer zone in the West Bank of the Euphrates River, and after this operation such a zone will be in the East Bank.
- President Erdogan stressed that the target of Turkey in Syria is not the US troops, but a terrorist organization. Is there a possibility of a collision of the Turkish army with the US troops?
- The main issue is that the United States does not close airspace there for Turkey. Because without an air operation, it will be very difficult to carry out a ground operation; but I do not think that the United States will agree to it. The statement by the Free Army of Syria also noted that US soldiers would not be targeted. It is highly likely that Russia will support this operation, because it also wants to eliminate the PYD / PKK in Syria.
Turkey will not conduct a large-scale operation there, since such a campaign has different requirements. The military action will contribute to raising the rating of both the ruling party AKP and President Erdogan.
-So, you completely exclude the possibility of a collision between the troops of Turkey and the United States, do not you?
- I do not think it is possible, because in the secret and overt global wars taking place in the world, the United States does not want to lose Turkey not only in the Mediterranean, but also in the Middle East, in the Black Sea, in the Caucasus, in the Caspian Sea, and even in Afghanistan. Therefore, I am convinced that the expected operation has been seriously discussed with the security centers, including the United States.
-Can this operation carried out by Turkey prevent the implementation of the Kurdish Corridor project in the region?
- If Turkey conducts a decisive operation, the balance of forces in the region will change completely. It will be necessary to discuss again the Kurdish question in Turkey, in Syria and in Iraq, in order to find new political formulas. The main reason why the United States provides political support for the Kurds in Syria is the desire of the US to deprive Iran of its presence in Syria, its entering the Mediterranean Sea, and its assistance to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Therefore, in all respects, the US needs Turkey, and does not want to lose it. It is highly likely that President Erdogan discussed the upcoming operation with President Trump.
At the present stage, the main issue for Turkey, as in previous operations, is to find the solution to this problem with minimal losses. Russia's silence also suggests that the issue has been thoroughly discussed with the Kremlin.
I consider impossible the clash of the military of Turkey and the United States, as well as the closing by the US the airspace of Syria.
Different point of view
"The probability of a collision of Turkish and American troops is high", said Nihat Ali Ozcan, the specialist on the Middle East and terrorism issues, the permanent commentator of the Milliyet newspaper and the NTV television channel in his interview with the news agency Turan.
Responding to the related questions from the Turan Agency, Nihat Ali Ozcan drew attention to the fact that Turkey is unhappy with the US policy in Syria: "Turkey is not satisfied with the policy pursued by the United States in Syria. On this issue, tensions arose between the two countries before.
The president"s words indicate that this time Turkey intends to act decisively and eliminate the PKK / PYD terrorist organization on the other side of the border. Ankara is awaiting decisions related to military operations that must come from various power centers. And there is a high probability that during the ground operations in the region, the Turkish army may encounter US soldiers. In this case, the situation in the region and in the relations between Turkey and the United States will be completely different. Therefore, now everyone, remembering this probability, is trying to avoid confrontation between the troops of the two countries. "
Nihat Ali Ozcan, recalled that the fight against terrorism in the region of Idlib did not go as it was expected, and noted that it was impossible to open the highway there, and this made it difficult to work in the region.
"Everyone knows that the United States dominates the region. The operation planned by Turkey on the eastern bank of the Euphrates River is essentially the first sign of the beginning of the creation of a confederative structure in Syria. However, the United States continues its alliance with the Kurds. And Turkey considers the creation of a "Kurdish corridor" there as a matter of its existence. That is why a very chaotic situation has developed," said Nihat Ali Ozcan.
Once again, speaking about the probability of clashes of Turkish and American soldiers in the region, he stressed that to prevent this, it is necessary for Turkey to conduct a limited military operation, and the United States must withdraw its troops from this region during this operation. As long as the situation here does not change, the probability of confrontation between Turkish and American troops in the region will remain high.
The US Department of Defense responded to President Erdogan"s statement on the preparation of an operation on the East Bank of the Euphrates River. One of the representatives of the Pentagon, Maj. Sean Robertson, commenting on the words of President Erdogan, said: "The unilateral steps that could be taken by any armed forces in northeastern Syria, and in particular, in or near the location of US troops, cause a serious concern, and we believe that such measures are unacceptable." He recalled that "Turkey and the United States are responsible for each other"; Robertson also added that the United States respects the security of the borders of Turkey.
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