Turkey supports de-occupation of Azerbaijani lands

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- Large-scale joint Turkish-Azerbaijani military exercises, as well as their holding immediately after the aggravation of the situation on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border, became the reason for wide discussion. In your opinion, was the holding of military exercises at this time and in this format a pre-planned step or a coincidence?

-“In fact, these exercises were pre-planned military exercises. In February this year, during the visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Azerbaijan, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev also stressed that several joint military exercises would be held during the year. However, the incident in Tovuz naturally increased interest in military exercises. To be honest, until this time we have not seen such a stir for military exercises. Joint Azerbaijani-Turkish military exercises have been held for many years; and this time, the military exercises generated a lot of discussion. For the first time, military exercises between the two countries aroused great interest in Azerbaijan, Turkey, Russia, Armenia, including in distant countries of interest in the region. There are two reasons for this.

The first reason is that the Azerbaijani society wants to speed up the liberation of the occupied lands and does not believe that negotiations with Armenia will be beneficial. The President and the society of Azerbaijan understand the inevitability of war. The battles in the Tovuz direction, and then the joint military exercises of Azerbaijan and Turkey, created the impression that the two fraternal states are ready to take joint steps to liberate the occupied lands.

The second reason for the interest in joint military exercises is related to the growing role of Turkey in the region. Turkey is no longer the country it was 15 or 20 years ago. Turkey has become the leading power in the region. Turkey is conducting a military operation in any direction, without reckoning or consulting with anyone, including the United States, Russia or the European Union. Turkey explains these operations by the interests of Turkey's national security. Turkey, which is strengthening in Syria, Libya, Iraq, the Mediterranean basin, has included the South Caucasus in the list of its interests. Russia has to reckon with this too.

- Are these military exercises a message to someone? Can this be considered a demonstration of muscles against someone?

“These exercises are a message to both Armenia and Russia. Armenia is informed that Azerbaijan and Turkey will never stay indifferent to the fact of the occupation; preparations and planning are already underway to take decisive steps. Russia did not accelerate the conflict. Therefore, Azerbaijan and Turkey are forced to take decisive steps. Russia cannot prevent this. Because the talk is not about an attack on Armenia. It is about ensuring the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, since Russia itself recognizes, albeit in words, the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.

The Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan thinks that Turkey, as before, will take an observant position on the issue of the occupation of Azerbaijani lands. However, if Russian President Vladimir Putin during his last telephone conversation with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed the opinion that this country plays a role in the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict, then small and poor Armenia can do nothing against it. Pashinyan does not want to accept this, but his main competitor, ex-President Robert Kocharian, understood this.

Kocharian understood two truths. Kocharian said that the Azerbaijani society wants war, and this factor must be reckoned with. Kocharian also realized that it was no longer possible to keep Turkey away from the South Caucasus. In fact, Pashinyan also understands this, he is simply afraid to voice it so as not to look weak. But reality cannot be avoided.

- Armenia does not hide its concern about these military exercises. This is clear from the Armenian press. Can the Turkish army provide support to Azerbaijan in case of aggravation of the situation with Armenia, if conditions for war are again created in Nagorno-Karabakh? Because Turkey is a NATO country, but Azerbaijan is not.

- I believe that Turkey will provide Azerbaijan with all-round support in the event of a war and Azerbaijan's appeal to Turkey in this regard. Since the military agreements signed in the past, indicate that Turkey is ready to provide Azerbaijan with any support, if there is an invitation or desire. The latest statements by the Turkish President, Foreign Minister, Defense Minister also indicate that Turkey is always ready to provide military support to Azerbaijan, taking into account all the risks that occur at this time. That is, of course, relations with Russia maybe cold. Despite this, Turkey is ready to provide military support to Azerbaijan and take part in hostilities.

The reality is that the Turkish authorities and society already consider Nagorno-Karabakh theirs. That is, what the occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent regions means for Azerbaijan, the same means for Turkey, and the fraternal state does not want to demonstrate the patience of the occupation of Azerbaijani lands. In a good way, this means pressure on Azerbaijan, in the sense of speeding up the operation to free the lands from occupation, and at this time Turkey will be next to Azerbaijan, not fearing anyone or anything.

- The other side of the question. Armenia is a member of the CSTO and usually relies on Russia in this organization. There are still Russian military bases in Armenia. It is curious that in the current conditions Russia does not react to these military exercises. If, as we have already said, relations in the region, that is, between Armenia and Azerbaijan, create conditions for war and the Turkish army will support Azerbaijan, then from what will be the position of  Russia? What steps will be taken?

- I do not think that Russia will interfere in the process harshly. When does Russia interfere in the processes? When it comes to areas close to its borders. In 2008, because of the war with Georgia, Russia remained in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In 2014, Russia settled in Ukraine.  Russia has no direct borders with Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia guarantees the security of Armenia, but Nagorno-Karabakh is recognized as the territory of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan does not intend to conduct a military operation in Armenia. He can conduct an operation to liberate Nagorno-Karabakh. Therefore, Russia officially does not have the right to interfere in this process. At best, Russia can increase military support to Armenia.

- In general, can a spark of war break out between Azerbaijan and Armenia? A lot has been said about this in recent days. Do you think that the real situation leads to this, or what is happening is simply a means of political pressure on some of these countries?

- There is a risk of war in the region. This risk is much greater than in previous years. Because the Azerbaijani society and officials have already understood that if the negotiations continue for another 25 years, then there will be no benefit. Armenia will not liberate the territory voluntarily. Azerbaijan must free its lands by means of pressure. Only this can speed up the process. Of course, there are risks in this too. In the 1990s, we faced these risks. To prevent these risks from arising, so that Azerbaijan does not face an even more dangerous situation, it is necessary to strengthen the military alliance with Turkey.

The agreement on strategic partnership and mutual assistance signed in 2010 between Azerbaijan and Turkey allows both states to raise military cooperation to a high level. According to this agreement, when one of the parties is subjected to an armed attack or military aggression by a third state or a group of states, the parties can exercise the right of collective self-defense. According to another article of the agreement, the armed forces of Azerbaijan and Turkey can carry out the necessary planning to coordinate the security and command structures.

It seems to me that there is a need to strengthen this agreement. It would be good to start during the military exercises the negotiations on the deployment of military bases of the brotherly country in Azerbaijan. First, a military base should be created in Nakhchivan. This guarantees us that if we start military operations to return Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent regions the enemy will not be able to threaten us in the Nakhchivan direction. According to the new agreement to be signed between Azerbaijan and Turkey, the Kars agreement should cover the whole of Azerbaijan. At the same time, the occupying country will always be in fear and panic. As was the case when Turkish military planes approached the Armenian border during joint exercises, which caused a strong panic in Yerevan. This is also necessary for Azerbaijan.