In earlier centuries, the main factors contributing to longevity were a healthy lifestyle, natural and quality food, and clean air. Today, advancements in sustainable healthcare services and innovative technologies that enable the early detection of human diseases have paved the way for longer lifespans.
One of the primary expectations of the Fourth Industrial Revolution relates to biological health. Genetic engineering and nano-biotechnologies are anticipated to bring revolutionary changes to human health. Personalized medical approaches will facilitate earlier detection and more effective treatment of diseases.
Automation and artificial intelligence will create more opportunities for humans and improve the quality of life. Technology will be developed not to replace humans but to support them.
Countries like Japan, which have achieved sustainable economic development through innovative technological opportunities, have reached higher living standards. Due to decades of economic growth and resilient healthcare systems, the Japanese people have successfully ranked among the world's longest-living nations. Currently, over 80,000 of Japan's 125 million population are above the age of 100. In a humorous comparison, one might say that the citizens of Tokyo and the beautiful Lerik region, known for its centenarians, have swapped places in terms of longevity.
The Fourth Industrial Revolution has brought forth a paradoxical reality: while human lifespans are increasing, the lifespans of companies are decreasing. Companies either merge to increase their market share or are outcompeted by digital enterprises emerging in the new ICT sector. They gain swift access to resources. On the other hand, the latest industrial revolution has also contributed to human longevity. While extended human lifespans are generally positive, they also impose additional fiscal burdens on governments, including higher social and healthcare expenses for those requiring more care.
In her book "Fundamentals of Insurance", Tena B. Krews cites data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, stating that approximately nine million Americans over the age of 60 will require long-term care. As the number of individuals over 60 increases, so will the number needing long-term care.
Is this phenomenon exclusive to the United States? Globally, the situation is quite similar. Life expectancy indicators worldwide are improving. The global population, currently [2] at 7.2 billion, is projected to reach 8 billion by 2030 and 9 billion by 2050. This will lead to an increase in aggregate demand. However, there is also a strong demographic trend: aging. It is widely accepted that aging primarily impacts affluent Western countries.
By 2050, the ratio of individuals over 65 to those aged 15–64 is expected to double to 54 percent. This demographic burden implies that the number of working-age individuals per retiree will drop from four to two. Such a shift could jeopardize the fiscal sustainability of healthcare and pension systems, which are two critical pillars of governmental stability.
Life Expectancy in the South Caucasus
There are conflicting perspectives on life expectancy in Azerbaijan. Approximately 45 percent of the population does not reach retirement age. In contrast, official statistics [3] report an average life expectancy of 76 years for 2023, raising questions about its reliability.
The Absheron region leads in longevity within the country, with an average life expectancy of 82.7 years. Only two regions in Azerbaijan exceed an average life expectancy of 80 years: Absheron and Khankendi (81.6 years). The lowest life expectancy is in the Dashkasan region, at 72.3 years.
The United Nations Human Development Index (HDI), which reflects the welfare levels of countries using three indicators—income per capita, quality of education, and average life expectancy—placed Azerbaijan 89th among 193 countries in its 2024 report. Georgia ranked 60th, and Armenia 76th, making Azerbaijan the lowest-ranked South Caucasus country.
Given that Azerbaijan is experiencing a golden age of natural resources, the inability to increase life expectancy raises questions about the country's ability to address this issue in the post-oil era. Predicting how the retirement age will be adjusted in the future is challenging, leaving room only for speculation.
Sources:
[1] Tena B. Krews, "Fundamentals of Insurance", TEAS Press Publishing House, 2023, p. 222
[2] Klaus Schwab, "The Fourth Industrial Revolution", NURLAR Publishing, 2020, p. 43
[3] https://www.stat.gov.az/source/demoqraphy/az/002_4.xls
Social sphere
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