In 2019 Baku may present ultimatum to Armenia, political scientist

The hopes for a solution to the Karabakh problem do not come true for years. However, the events of 2018 show that the next year may be decisive in the Karabakh settlement - this is the main conclusion of the lengthy analytical report of the Atlas Research Center, which is annually prepared by political scientist Elkhan Shainoglu.

For this, the necessary changes were implemented in Azerbaijan: permanent army exercises, movement of the front line in the Nakhchivan direction towards the enemy, withdrawal of the army unit from the border with Armenia for the possible direction of this military unit to the Karabakh front, cardinal personnel replacement in the Azerbaijani community of Karabakh, relative calm in fronts provided by Azerbaijan for the unhindered displacement of Pashinyan by his predecessor Sargsyan and others. Pashinyan, who did not take personal part in the occupation of the Azerbaijani territories, is more preferable to Azerbaijan than the previous rulers of Armenia, representing the Karabakh clan.

In 2019, Baku should perform the following tasks: the new leadership of the Azerbaijani community of Karabakh should intensify work in international organizations, the chairman of the community Tural Ganjaliyev will hold talks in European capitals, it is necessary to bring to the world no alternative to returning Azerbaijani refugees to their homes. It is necessary to achieve direct contacts between the Armenian and Azerbaijani communities of Karabakh to discuss the conditions for the preservation of this territory within Azerbaijan.

In 2019, several meetings are possible between I. Aliyev and Pashinyan, but before that Pashinyan must abandon the idea of ​​bringing Karabakh separatists to the negotiations. So far, Pashinyan has not made statements indicating his intention to sign peace with Azerbaijan on terms that suits us. It is not excluded that Pashinyan will decide to continue the policy of the Karabakh clan, and then Aliyev can declare an ultimatum to Armenia, because geopolitical realities are favorable for us to solve the problem - the coldness in the Russian-Armenian relations and the warning statements of Lavrov demanding Armenians to give up their intentions get closer to NATO and the EU, sign an obligation on impossibility of the stay of foreign servicemen in Armenia, etc.

"Official Baku will wait for Pashinyan"s favorable attitude towards the problem throughout the first half of the year. If Yerevan doesn"t show practical intentions to solve the problem on the basis of international law, then the Azerbaijani army activates, and official Baku can put forward an ultimatum to Yerevan with something like this: "The Armenian army must liberate the territories around Nagorno-Karabakh in the next three months. Otherwise, Azerbaijan will take compulsory measures ", considers E. Shainoglu.

Baku"s determination will lead to toughening the demands of other countries to Armenia, who do not want a new war in the Caucasus, he added.

The Karabakh separatists are preventing Pashinyan's constructivism. The actual ruler of Nagorno Karabakh (NK), Bako Sahakyan, is against Pashinyan, but pretends to submit to him, at the same time without leaving the sphere of influence of Sargsyan and Kocharyan. Under such circumstances, Pashinyan will not make peace with Azerbaijan, trying to preserve the status quo. Visiting Khankendi, meeting there with local leaders and discussing the future budget of Armenia with the budget of NK involved in it, Pashinyan shows that he continues the policy of his predecessors. And this will certainly increase the military pressure of Azerbaijan on Armenia. "Pashinyan is afraid of war," the political scientist believes that Azerbaijan should use this factor in the Karabakh policy.

Not a single Armenian president or prime minister will voluntarily sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, this will not allow the internal situation in his country to be made. Therefore, Azerbaijan should force Armenia to peace. We will continue military pressure on the occupier and will acquire new weapons in various countries, the political scientist said.

E. Shainoglu highly appreciated Ankara"s last statement, which gave tough answer to Pashinyan"s proposal to establish the Armenian-Turkish good relations without preconditions. Turkey repeated that the normalization of relations is impossible without the liberation of the regions around NK, which means that Pashinyan will not be able to relieve the tension on the border with Turkey.

Touching on the Armenian-Russian relations, E. Shainoglu is confident that the Kremlin will continue close cooperation with Armenia, despite the fact that Putin did not congratulate Pashinyan because of Kocharyan"s arrest. But Moscow will not remove the Prime Minister from his post, because people support Pashinyan, and the Russian Federation does not want a civil war in Armenia to prevent Azerbaijan from taking advantage of it.