Negotiations to Be Held on Basis of Madrid Principles, with New Status Quo - experts

Baku / 10.10.20 / Turan: At the talks in Moscow on October 9, 2020, the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia agreed to end hostilities in Karabakh from 12:00 on October 10. The parties are embarking on substantive peace talks, said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Twitter.

Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed on a truce and agreed to begin an exchange of prisoners and killed after the ceasefire came into force. This was stated by the head of the MFA of Russia Sergei Lavrov, reports TASS.

Following the results, the parties agreed on a tripartite document. The negotiators agreed on a ceasefire for the exchange of prisoners and bodies of the dead. It is noted that the specific parameters of the ceasefire regime will be agreed upon additionally.

In addition, the parties will begin substantive negotiations for an early peace settlement through the mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group. Yerevan and Baku also confirmed the invariability of the format of the negotiations, TASS reported.

Turan agency asked experts about possible Azerbaijani conditions in these negotiations after the status quo in Karabakh that existed before September 27 (2020) was changed by the Azerbaijani army.

Political scientist Zardusht Alizadeh believes that Azerbaijan should seek the withdrawal of all the armed forces of Armenia from Karabakh, de-occupation of seven regions and, together with Armenia, make a decision on joint residence of Azerbaijanis and Armenians in NK.

There is no longer a need to leave the Lachin corridor to the Armenians, because the 20 thousand Armenian population remaining in Karabakh can leave for Armenia on the usual basis with our other citizens. The Karabakh Armenians are also no longer entitled to a special status.

“The previous status quo no longer exists; it could have been discussed before the decisive actions of the Azerbaijani army, when Azerbaijan proposed a compromise in Karabakh. We need peace negotiations to prevent new deaths of Azerbaijanis and Armenians. I know the mood in our people, but the death of every young man is a tragedy for his family. The difference between the current state and the period before September 27 is that earlier the Armenians dictated conditions to us at the negotiations and we told them about our rights, and now the decisive word is for Azerbaijan,” Alizadeh said.

Expert Ali Abbasov believes that negotiations with Armenia will be conducted from today on the results of the 2020 war, and not the military actions of 1993 when the Armenians won. Yerevan must submit a schedule for the withdrawal of its troops from Nagorno-Karabakh and other occupied regions. Under the guarantee of the OSCE Minsk Group, Armenia is obliged to fulfill the four well-known UN Security Council resolutions on a peaceful settlement in Karabakh.

A. Abbasov believes that the status of Nagorno-Karabakh should be decided in a special referendum, in which about 200 thousand residents of all Karabakh, including children born during the years of occupation, will take part. About 150 thousand Karabakh Armenians will take part in the referendum from the Armenian side.

“If Azerbaijan does not include this item in the peace treaty, then the Armenians will hold their referendum there on other favorable terms, so there should be a referendum on the status of the Armenian population,” the expert explained.

 The negotiations should be carried out in the format of the preserved Madrid principles, since this is the only package of documents agreed by the parties.

“Baku must declare that if the peace negotiations do not lead to success as it has been so far, Azerbaijan reserves the right to resolve the issue of de-occupation of Karabakh by other means. Which ones? There is no need to specify this in the statement,” explained Ali Abbasov.

A human rights activist specializing in the Karabakh conflict, Avaz Hasanov, is confident that the previous status quo has been changed, the former buffer zone (in the terminology of the occupants) has been eliminated and, accordingly, Azerbaijan will set new negotiating conditions.

Baku will proceed from the fact that our army liberates the territories, and the lands are returned to us not as a result of negotiations with Armenia. I. Aliyev must demand from the enemy a plan for the withdrawal of the occupying forces from NK in exchange for peace with Armenia.

The success of the October 9 negotiations is the opportunity for the Azerbaijanis to return to the liberated regions and further to the regions from where Armenia itself will withdraw its troops. The parties should start working out joint measures and principles to ensure the peaceful residence of the two peoples in Karabakh. The renewed negotiations can be based only on the Madrid principles, that is, the liberation of Azerbaijani lands, the return of refugees, the unblocking of roads, etc. At the end of the process, if it is successful, we can start determining the status of residence of Armenians in Azerbaijan, added Avaz Hasanov.

The Azerbaijani society received the news of the agreement in Moscow extremely negatively. Journalist Khadija Ismayil writes in FB that Armenia will use the truce to restore its army and purchase new weapons. "Azerbaijan could not resist the pressure from Russia."

Journalist Nailya Balaeva asks: “Why, in this case, did so many people die in the battles, did they give their lives for this? Russia again raped us and Armenians”.

After analyzing the text of the agreement, taking into account the mood of our society and predicting the mandatory revanchist sentiments of Pashinyan, former Foreign Minister Tofig Zulfugarov believes that the war in Karabakh will resume in the coming days or weeks.–0—