Society has changed; power imitates reforms - expert opinions

In the politicized part of Azerbaijani society, there are changes in activity, turning into radicalism. On the other hand, the state weakens repressive mechanisms. In the past four months, the Azerbaijani police did not detain and the courts did not condemn politicians and journalists on charges of drug offenses, and the detention of activists led to convictions on administrative sentences of up to 30 days. The latest arrest with drug trafficking charges was against the Musavatist Azad Hasanov in October 2018.

The trials of journalists Mustafa Hajibeyli and Anar Mammadov, accused of publishing inflammatory (against the authorities) articles after the Ganja mass events, pass passively, accused at large. Previously, in such processes, the defendants were held in a detention facility. Journalist Fatima Movlanly for the sixth time is taken from the street by police officers for preparing reports and participating in protest actions, and each time she is soon released.

Strange events are taking place in the power that surprise people. The decree on the threefold increase in fines for picking berries in reserves was canceled a day later. By presidential decree, the Center for Strategic Studies was liquidated. However, less than a month later, two analytical centers were created - Social Research and Foreign Policy Studies. "I hope that the new experts will gather adequate experts who will report to the management on the real state of affairs," journalist Nijat Hajiyev shared with disappointment on the social network.

For the first time, a high official (head of the Migration Service Vusal Huseynov) communicated directly with the people through modern communication tools. The president personally intervened in the incident of the blogger Mehman Huseynov with the lieutenant of the jail in which he is being held, and ordered to stop the criminal case against the blogger.

"Gentlemen, the situation has changed ... The people has woke up. At other times, citizens who fled when they saw a video camera, now they themselves run to a journalist, they say what they think. Why should they arrest me if the people find someone to speak out? ", asked Fatima Movlanly.

The chair of the Mejlis of the REAL party, Azer Gasimly, believes that there is such a deep abyss between the government and the people that it is impossible not to see it. The authorities, as before, cannot ignore what is happening, understanding that the situation is getting worse. The authorities are trying to solve contradictions artificially. Instead of solving problems, come up with stage actions to increase the president"s rating. Get up with imitation of reform.

Gasimly explains the observed easing, as well as the unexpectedly significant increase in the minimum wage (from 130 to 180 manats per month, from March 1, 2019) to the effect of the opposition rally held on January 19 that gathered a large number of protesting citizens.

Mustafa Hajibeyli, editor-in-chief of the Basta.info website, which was blocked by the government, recalls that increases in benefits and wages had occurred on the eve of elections. Now, the promise to pay benefit to the families of martyrs in the amount of 11,000 manat and the increase in the minimum wage by 38% occurred without reference to the electoral process. Consequently, the government is forced to cede under the discontent of the people.

Azer Gasimly is not satisfied with what is happening and argues that there is no reform, this can be seen from the way two other analytical centers, social and political research, were created instead of the liquidated SRC. The new Centers are most likely joined by workers of the closed center. What is the reform if the visibility and structure are changed, but not the essence? International relations should be studied by non-governmental organizations, institutes and independent experts, rather than those attached to the authorities and established Centers, he noted.

"The direct communication of Vusal Huseynov, the Chairman of the Migration Service, with the people is not because of the changes in the state"s policy. If the authorities really decided to get closer to the people they would organize the same direct communication with the citizens for the head of the Administration Ramiz Mehdiyev, Minister of Emergency Situations Kemaleddin Heydarov, Minister of Internal Affairs Ramil Usubov, Minister of Youth and Sports, Azad Rahgimov, Minister of Health Oktay Shiraliyev, Minister of Taxes, Michael Jabbarov, and others. The fact that the president cancelled the Cabinet"s decree on fines indicates unproductive work of the government,"Azer Gasimly added.

Economist Rovshan Agayev also sees no real reforms. "The government that deals with reforms should first of all ensure their reporting. Reporting is necessary for transparency, and transparency is necessary for the effectiveness of reforms; but this is not. On the official website of the Ministry of Economic Development last update is dated 2015. The central bank has a five-year report of up to 90 pages I cut it down and placed it on the site on 13-15 pages; - R.Agayev cited an example of the closeness of state reports.

"There is noticeable concern at the top," says analyst Shahin Jafarli. Public opinion differs from that in previous years. The reaction and steps of the authorities in response to problems indicate the deadlock of the system. One feels that they understand the inability to control the old methods and are looking for ways out. It is good...

I see no need for magical, unusual, extraordinary methods of solving problems. There is a simple way out: it is necessary to exercise the rights and freedoms enshrined in the Azerbaijani Constitution. The second part of the second Article of the Constitution deals with the right of citizens to elect and be elected. If you fulfill this constitutional requirement, citizens will feel like full-fledged residents of the country, its masters. If in the upcoming parliamentary elections (2020) people can really elect, then the aggression accumulating in the society and disturbing the authorities will disappear, and the state policy will receive popular support. Otherwise, the decisions will not go beyond the palliative effect, and the disease will develop," said Shahin Jafarli.