Growing tensions on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border: a delicate balancing act

Recent events near the village of Nerkin and in the Gafan district have once again drawn close attention to the long-standing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry's report on a shootout with Armenian forces that resulted in injuries and casualties highlights the unstable nature of the region.

Opinions differ on the parties responsible for the conflict. What do we know about the real situation?

According to the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry, on February 12, at 13.37 hours, fire was opened from the positions of the Armenian Armed Forces near the village of Nerkin-And in the Gafan district at the positions of Azerbaijani border guards in the village of Kollugyshlag in the Zangilan district. As a result, a border guard was injured.  On the same day, at night from 20:50 to 23:40, Armenian units opened fire on Azerbaijani positions located in the northeastern part of the border zone. In response, Operation Retribution was carried out at 5:30 a.m. on February 13. The shootout claimed the lives of four members of the informal military-patriotic organization Union of Volunteers "Yerkrapa". On the contrary, the Armenian Defense Ministry claims that the firefight in this area stopped at 9:30 a.m. However, the hidden tension remains palpable.

One of the key aspects to be considered is the role of informal military organizations such as the Yerkrapah Volunteer Union in Armenia. These groups, although not formally part of the Armed Forces, have significant influence and could potentially increase tensions along the border. The rise of revanchist sentiments within Armenia, often fueled by such groups, adds another level of complexity to an already unstable situation. The presence of these informal military formations along the line of contact only increases the risk of sporadic clashes.

Moreover, the sudden upsurge in violence after a period of relative peace raises questions about the deeper causes of the conflict. Issues such as internal strife within the Pashinyan government, stalled peace treaty negotiations and smoldering territorial disputes continue to fuel tensions. Azerbaijan's demand to exclude from the Constitution of the Republic of Armenia a reference to the Declaration of Independence, in which Nagorno-Karabakh is declared an integral part of Armenia, underscores the difficulties of achieving a lasting settlement.

The involvement of external players, in particular the United States, Europe and Russia, adds another dimension to the conflict. These interested parties have consistently called on Armenia to recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and engage in constructive negotiations. The recent escalation gives Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan an additional impetus to conclude a peace treaty, presenting it as a choice between diplomacy or further conflict. Given that most Armenians fear a new war, Pashinyan's position on achieving peace is likely to gain momentum.

In conclusion, the recent outbreak of violence on the border highlights the delicate balance needed to navigate the complex web of historical grievances, territorial disputes and external pressures. While the prospects for concluding a peace treaty and improving bilateral relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan remain uncertain, the need for constant diplomatic efforts and dialogue cannot be overestimated. Only through constructive interaction and compromise can the vicious circle of violence be broken and lasting peace in the region be achieved.