Azerbaijan's Hydrocarbon Revenues: A Deceptive Boom in 2023

In 2023, Azerbaijan reported a net income of 14 billion 519 million manats ($8 billion 540.6 million) from the sale of hydrocarbons, according to the Accounting Chamber's report titled "Audit of the formation and use of funds of the State Oil Fund in the main directions." This report, stemming from the external state financial control event, offers a nuanced look at the financial health of Azerbaijan's hydrocarbon sector.

The report highlights a significant overachievement relative to the State Oil Fund's budget for 2023. Specifically, the actual income surpassed the approved budget target by 2 billion 753.2 million manats, or 23.4%. This variance is attributed to a higher-than-expected average crude oil price, which was projected at $60 per barrel but averaged $83.4 throughout the year. The $23.4 per barrel increase resulted in revenues exceeding forecasts by the aforementioned 2 billion 753.2 million manats.

Despite these seemingly positive figures, a closer inspection reveals a declining trend in hydrocarbon revenues. In reality, the net income from hydrocarbon sales in 2023 marked a 14.5% decrease from the previous year. In 2022, Azerbaijan's hydrocarbon sector yielded a net profit of 19 billion 698.9 million manats ($11 billion 587.6 million).

This decline underscores a broader economic challenge facing Azerbaijan. The oil sector, long the cornerstone of the national economy, is waning. Amid this downturn, official structures are reportedly presenting statistical data that mask the true state of the oil and gas sector and the broader economy.

The reliance on hydrocarbons has long been a double-edged sword for Azerbaijan. While the sector has historically driven economic growth and development, its current decline poses significant risks. The country's economic strategy now faces a critical test: diversifying away from oil dependency while managing the socio-economic impacts of reduced hydrocarbon revenues.

The government’s optimistic financial reports, bolstered by favorable but volatile oil prices, offer temporary relief but do not address the structural issues within the sector. The high revenue figures for 2023, driven by an unexpected rise in oil prices, do not reflect sustainable growth but rather a fortunate market anomaly.

Looking forward, Azerbaijan must grapple with the dual challenge of enhancing transparency in its economic reporting and fostering sustainable growth in non-oil sectors. The apparent discrepancy between reported financial health and the underlying economic realities highlights the need for robust economic reforms and strategic planning.