Creation of GUAM free economic zone is unlikely - expert

Baku / 09.10.17 / Turan: At a meeting of GUAM foreign ministers last week, many issues were discussed in Tbilisi, including frozen conflicts in the member countries. However, the greatest interest was caused by the statement of Georgian Foreign Minister Mikheil Janelidze that documents are being prepared for the creation of a free economic zone within the framework of GUAM. Janelidze added that by the end of the year the first results are expected.

GUAM - Organization for Democracy and Economic Development was established by the four countries Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova in 1997. Since the establishment of the organization, the Russian media have more than once called GUAM an anti-Russian bloc, or "an organization of orange nations", behind which the United States stands. Opinions were expressed that the direct goal of the union was the weakening of the economic, primarily energy, dependence of the states that entered it from Russia and the development of transit of energy carriers along the route Asia (Caspian) - Caucasus-Europe, bypassing the territory of Russia. Therefore, it is quite possible that Russia will unambiguously accept the creation of a free economic zone by GUAM members.

Azerbaijan's entry into this zone can also "prick" the northern neighbor, because Azerbaijan refused to join the EEU - the Eurasian Economic Union, created in 2014 on the initiative of Russia. This union includes Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. Minister of Economy and Industry of Azerbaijan Shahin Mustafayev argued that the country does not want to join the Unified Energy System by the fact that the Eurasian Economic Union and the European Union are projects that have not only economic components, but also political underpinnings.

What benefits can the free economy of the GUAM bring to the Azerbaijani economy? How will the creation of such a zone affect the Russian-Azerbaijani relations?

According to the head of the Center for Strategic Studies "Atlas" Elkhan Shakhinoglu, the creation of a free economic zone by the GUAM member countries is only an intention, which will not necessarily be realized: "If the foreign ministers make proposals, it is not necessary that all of them will be realized. At the same meeting, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan introduced a proposal to hold sports competitions in the framework of GUAM. This is just a proposal to be discussed. The same applies to the proposal for a free economic zone. "

"Personally, I consider Moldova to be a weak link among the member countries of the organization. President of this country Igor Dodon is pursuing a pro-Russian foreign policy. True, the Prime Minister and the Parliament are pro-Western and, possibly, prefer cooperation with GUAM. However, so far the exact position of Moldova is unknown. Thus, there is uncertainty in the relations between the four member countries of the organization.

Azerbaijan and Georgia are strategic partners. It is possible that the free economic zone will begin to operate within the framework of these two countries.

At the same time, no serious project within GUAM was realized in 20 years. However, recently the trade turnover between Azerbaijan and Ukraine has grown 5-6 times, Ukraine through Azerbaijan sends its goods to Central Asia. However, this does not mean that all of the above will accelerate the process of creating a free economic zone.

As one of the reasons for this, the political scientist sees in the Russian factor: "Russia's relations with Georgia and Ukraine are tense. However, the relations between Azerbaijan and Russia are quite normal and the Azerbaijani authorities do not want to irritate Russia. If the discussions on the creation of a free economic zone go to a serious phase, Azerbaijan will try to take into account Russia's position.

On the other hand, despite Russia's almost hostile relations with Georgia and Ukraine, Azerbaijan makes billions of investments in Georgia, SOCAR expands its activities in Ukraine. Knowing that this may not please Russia, Azerbaijan nevertheless enforces its interests. If the free economic zone brings profit to Azerbaijan, I think Baku will go to its creation," Shakhinoglu added.

In an interview with Ukrainian media, economist Alexander Okhrimenko said that the introduction of a free trade zone in GUAM will not bring economic benefits. In his opinion, Ukraine has nothing to offer GUAM member countries and in general, there is no rich representative in the organization who could finance the whole process: "In the European Union there is Germany, in the Eurasian Union - Russia, and in GUAM there is no one", - concluded Okhrimenko. -0-