Experts Predict Rise of USD against AZN

The experts in the financial sector predict a steady growth of the dollar against the manat.

According to them, in the short term the dollar will cost 1.65 manats, and by year-end the US dollar exchange rate will come close to the mark of 2 manats.

In an interview with Turan the economist Samir Aliyev said unless there is nothing extraordinary, $ 1 will cost 1.80 manats by the end of 2016.

Among the extraordinary events he considers a sharp drop in oil prices or panic in the financial market of the country.

The expert suggests that at the beginning of September the dollar may already cost 1.65 AZN.

 ‘The Central Bank has taken a course of gradual liberalization of the manat. The Central Bank, despite the statement of the policy of floating exchange rate of AZN, actually controls the national currency and so it is currently impossible to talk about the real exchange rate of AZN,’ Aliyev said.

Speaking about the processes contributing to the growth of the dollar in Azerbaijan, Aliyev noted several factors:

‘Increase in the demand for USD is also triggered by the growth of imports. Another influencing factor is the return of loans by commercial banks to foreign investors. Previously, banks, returning loans, took new ones. And now they are trying to get rid of their foreign debts. The presence of large debts hinders their rating,’ said the expert.

According to him, another factor affecting the growth of the dollar is compensation paid to depositors in connection with the closure of several banks.

‘The compensation is issued in manats. The depositors, in turn, do not want to keep money in national currency and prefer to buy dollars, creating growth in the demand for the US currency,’ said Aliyev.

Note that the fate of the manat has also been commented by the Executive Secretary of the movement Republican Alternative (REAL), Natig Jafarli, kept in custody in the Kurdakjani jail.

His lawyer Javad Javadov after a meeting with his client wrote in Facebook that Jafarli forecast the dollar rate.

‘In Kurdakhani with a heavy heart I regret watching the fate of the manat. As someone who has experience and knowledge in this area, I can say the pressure on the manat will grow in the near future,’ Jafarli said.

Jafarli noted that 1.4 million pupils and students are preparing for the new school year. According to him, all the school supplies are imported from abroad. This will serve as one of the factors increasing demand for the dollar.

‘The US Federal Reserve in the next 2 months will raise the interest rate by 1%. This factor and the improbability of growth in oil prices will sharply push on AZN, resulting in the fact that in the near future the AZN exchange rate will be 1USD / 1.65AZN. In the next step the dollar will rise to 1.95 manats,’ Jafarli believes.    ------73B

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