Is extraction of first gas on absheron field in 2020 real?

Total E&P Absheron B.V. company, daughter company of French Total oil and gas company developing and exploring Total gas condensate field located in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea, plans to extract first gas on the contract area in 2020.

In order to solve this problem, French company has started implementation of the program of development of the Absheron field. By the end of 2014 Total E&P Absheron B.V. plans to submit SOCAR the program of the field development and get approval in 2015.

According to the French company's plans, the first gas on Absheron is expected to be extracted in 2020. At the first stage of the field development annual gas production volume will total 3-5 billion cub.m., claims Total company.

The question is if extraction of the first gas on the Absheron field by 2020 real, because the gas must be exported?

The study done by Turan proved that according to the current plans, extraction of gas from the Shah-Deniz Phase-2 project (the infrastructure for Azerbaijani gas export to Europe is created for this project) is planned in 2018 and the gas export will begin in 2019. The gas extraction from the Shah-Deniz Phase-2 will reach 16 billion cub.m. a year only by 2020.

Expanding of the South Caucasian gas pipeline, construction of the trans-Anadolu gas pipeline (TANAP) and the European export route (TAP or Nabucco West) will begin in 2015 and they will be used to pump gas from the Shah-Deniz Stage-2. Feasibility studies of the first stage of all these pipelines prove that and they will have no room for the gas deliveries from the Absheron field in 2020.

On the other hands if the infrastructure with the capacity of 16 billion cub.m. is launched in 2019, after a year it should be expanded by 3-5 billion cub.m. This should be done either now (but we do not see it in the extracting companies' proposals to the pipeline companies) or after several years.

Earlier Rovnag Abdullayev, President of State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR), said that expanding of the carrying capacity of the TANAP gas pipeline will be on a stage-by-stage basis: in 2023 it will be able to pump up to 24 billion cub.m. of gas and by 2026 - 31 billion cub.m.

Considering that and geological difficulty of the Absheron field, one can suppose that real term of gas extraction on the deep-water section of the Caspian Sea is 2023.

* The production sharing agreement (PSA) on Absheron field was signed on February 27, 2009. The project partners are SOCAR (40%), Total (operator with 40%) and GDF Suez (20%). The parliament ratified the contract on May 22, 2009. The contract was signed for the period of 30 years. The contract area totals 747 sq.km. On July 2, 2012 Total released an official statement about results of drilling of the first exploration well on the contract area. According to this statement, between 150 and 300 billion cub.m. of gas was discovered on the sea depth of 474 meters with the drilling progress of 6874 meters only on the north of the field. The drilling works started on January 9, 2011 by Dutch Maersk company using Heydar Aliyev semi-submersible drilling rig. Official discovery of Absheron gas condensate field was announced on September 9, 2011 in Baku.-0-