Could Iran Face a “Syrian Scenario”? Why Analysts Consider It Possible but Unlikely

The war engulfing Iran is rapidly transforming the strategic landscape of the South Caucasus. For Azerbaijan, the conflict unfolding to its south is not simply another episode of Middle Eastern instability. It represents a structural geopolitical shock that could reshape the country’s security environment, foreign policy orientation and regional role for years to come.

The death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in American and Israeli strikes on Tehran has plunged the country into its deepest political crisis since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, setting off a tense struggle between hard-line security institutions and more pragmatic political figures over the future of the Islamic Republic.

For weeks, the governments of the Persian Gulf walked a diplomatic tightrope. Publicly and in private, they urged restraint in Washington. Envoys shuttled between capitals. Messages were passed quietly to Tehran. The aim was simple: prevent a direct American strike on the Islamic Republic and spare the region another war. Then the missiles came.

Early in the morning on February 28, the United States and Israel launched missile strikes on Iranian territory.