Suspension of Cargo Transportation at the Azerbaijan–Iran Border: Economic and Geopolitical Consequences

The Government of Azerbaijan, citing the country’s security interests, temporarily suspended on March 5 the movement of cargo trucks through all border crossing points along the Azerbaijan–Iran border, including transit transportation.

The decision of the Azerbaijani government to temporarily suspend the movement of cargo trucks across the state border between Azerbaijan and Iran is being assessed as a measure that could have significant economic and geopolitical consequences for the region. The decision was adopted by the Cabinet of Ministers of Azerbaijan against the background of attacks carried out against the country in violation of the norms and principles of international law.

According to official information, on March 5 attacks using unmanned aerial vehicles were carried out on the territory of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. During the attack, civilian infrastructure, including Nakhchivan International Airport and other facilities, was damaged. It was reported that civilians were injured as a result of the incident.

The Region’s Main Transit Gateway

Currently, four main border crossing points operate between Azerbaijan and Iran:

• Astara – Astara
• Bilasuvar – Bilasuvar
• Julfa – Julfa
• Shahtakhti – Poldasht

Among these crossings, the Astara and Bilasuvar checkpoints are considered the most active transit gateways in the region. According to statistical data, approximately 300–400 cargo trucks pass through the Astara crossing each day, while about 250 trucks pass through Bilasuvar. The other two crossings—Julfa and Shahtakhti—are used mainly for regional trade with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic.

Thus, on average, approximately 600–800 cargo trucks cross the Azerbaijan–Iran border every day.

Daily Trade Turnover and Possible Economic Losses

In international cargo transportation, the average value of goods carried by one cargo truck varies between approximately 40,000 and 100,000 United States dollars. Taking these figures into account, the passage of an average of 700 trucks per day across the border corresponds to roughly 42 million United States dollars in trade turnover.

For this reason, the daily economic impact of closing the border crossings can be estimated approximately as follows:

• For Azerbaijan: a reduction of 5–10 million United States dollars in transit and logistics revenues
• For Iran: export disruptions and trade delays amounting to 10–20 million United States dollars
• For regional trade: a suspension of goods circulation worth approximately 30–50 million United States dollars

A prolonged closure could lead to increased transportation costs, the search for alternative routes, and changes in trade flows across the region.

Impact on the International North–South Transport Corridor

The Azerbaijan–Iran border plays an important role in the international transportation system. This route is considered one of the key components of the International North–South Transport Corridor.

Through this corridor, cargo is mainly transported along the following directions:

From north to south:

• Russia
• Belarus
• Kazakhstan
• European countries

From south to north:

• India
• Pakistan
• United Arab Emirates
• Countries of Southeast Asia

A large share of cargo enters Iran through one of its main seaports, the port of Bandar Abbas, and is then transported through Azerbaijan onward to Russia and Europe.

According to experts, this route is considered a shorter and economically more efficient alternative compared with the Suez Canal.

Expert Opinion

According to experts in the transport and logistics sector, the closure of the Azerbaijan–Iran border in the short term may have a greater impact on Iran and on regional transit trade.

Economists estimate that a significant share of Iran’s exports in the northern direction is carried out through Azerbaijan. The closure of this route could complicate access for Iranian products to the Russian and Caucasus markets.

On the other hand, although Azerbaijan may face certain losses in transit revenues as a transit country, the country’s alternative logistics routes—particularly transportation corridors through Georgia and Turkey—may compensate for part of this impact.

Experts also note that the situation may increase the importance of the East–West Middle Corridor. Through this corridor, cargo is transported from China to Europe via Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey.

Geopolitical Consequences

Analysts believe that the situation at the Azerbaijan–Iran border should be assessed not only as an economic issue but also as a factor that may influence the regional security balance.

For Azerbaijan, the decision primarily demonstrates that security priorities have been placed above economic interests. At the same time, the suspension of activity at one of the region’s important transit nodes may lead international logistics companies to redirect shipments toward alternative routes.

Evacuation Process from Iran

Against the background of the current situation, the evacuation of citizens of various countries from Iran is also continuing. According to official information, from February 28 at 08:00 until March 5 at 18:00, a total of 1,341 people were evacuated from Iran.

Among them are 402 citizens of China, 273 citizens of Azerbaijan, 262 citizens of Russia, 111 citizens of Tajikistan, 88 citizens of Pakistan, and citizens of other countries.

Conclusion

The suspension of cargo transportation at the Azerbaijan–Iran border may reduce regional trade turnover and cause delays in logistics chains in the short term. However, in the longer term, it cannot be ruled out that this decision may lead to a reconfiguration of transportation routes in the region and increase the importance of alternative corridors.