The Hormuz Trap: How Iran Found Itself Under Economic Siege

When Trump announced the decision, global markets interpreted it as more than a tactical pause. For many observers, the move signaled a deeper strategic shift: Washington, while demonstrating readiness to apply military pressure on Iran, is simultaneously trying to avoid a war whose consequences could extend far beyond the Middle East.

Amid rising risks of escalation around Iran and across the wider Middle East, a less visible but strategically significant dynamic is taking shape. Azerbaijan — a country traditionally associated with energy and geopolitical balancing — is gradually emerging in a new role: that of a humanitarian transit hub.

In this context, analysts are turning their attention to Afghanistan, which could become a key link in a new route bypassing Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. However, active development and use of this route are constrained by the Taliban’s limited capacity to enable Afghanistan to play such a role.

United Arab Emirates has announced its withdrawal from OPEC from 1 may, a move that analysts say reflects a combination of economic priorities, geopolitical recalibration and growing tensions within the producer group, and could have far-reaching implications for oil prices and the cohesion of the broader OPEC+ alliance.