Ukraine Allies Expect Iran to Ship Missiles to Russia Imminently

Bloomberg: European officials expect Iran to deliver ballistic missiles to Russia imminently, a move that could prompt a swift response from Ukraine’s allies, people familiar with the matter said.

Iran has provided Russia with hundreds of drones during Russia’s 2 1/2-year war against Ukraine, but the potential transfer of ballistic missiles would mark a worrying development in the conflict, according to the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential assessments.

They declined to provide estimates of the type and scope of the deliveries or a timeline, though one of the officials said shipments could begin within a matter of days. Ballistic missiles typically fly much faster than cruise missiles or drones — and can carry larger payloads.

The US and other North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies have repeatedly warned Tehran against such a move and are pressing ahead with diplomatic efforts to prevent it from happening. The US National Security Council didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment. Iran’s Foreign Ministry and its mission to the United Nations didn’t respond to queries.

Ukrainian forces are struggling to halt a Russian advance in the eastern Donetsk region as its cities and energy infrastructure have come under a sustained bombing campaign with the third full winter of the war looming. Kyiv was hit early Monday with a barrage of cruise and ballistic missiles and drones, with seven of 16 ballistic missiles evading air defenses.

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Moscow’s ballistic missile arsenal includes Russian and less precise North Korean hardware. The attack on the capital today included domestically made Iskander-M missiles as well as North Korean KN-23 models, launched from the Bryansk, Kursk and Voronezh regions, all bordering Ukraine, according to Ukraine’s air defense forces.

Ukrainian allies meanwhile are scrambling to meet pledges made earlier this year to beef up the war-battered nation’s air-defense systems. Several NATO allies have yet to follow through with commitments reaffirmed at the alliance’s summit in Washington in July, Bloomberg reported last month.

Additional Sanctions

The developments amount to a grim moment for Ukraine, which has lost a significant swathe of its power-generating capacity as citizens increasingly rely on diesel generators grapple with prolonged blackouts. The prospect of restoring power before the heating season is growing more challenging.

Russia’s war economy has been able to produce missiles and ammunition at a tempo that often outpaces that of Ukrainian allies’ ability to ship weapons. Moscow has also been able to rely on deliveries from countries like Iran and North Korea, while sustaining its own manufacturing capacity with technology and key components from nations including China.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been pushing allies to ramp up supplies and lift restrictions on deep strikes into Russian territory. His government has argued that such attacks are necessary to hit airfields and launchers used for assaults on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

Last month’s surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has so far failed to blunt a grinding advance from Moscow.

Ballistic missile transfers to Russia would likely be met with additional sanctions on Iran, though their effectiveness would be uncertain given the raft of measures already targeting Tehran, including on drone supplies to Moscow. Among previous measures discussed by allies are fresh restrictions on Iran Air.

Group of Seven nations are also expected to publicly condemn any transfer promptly and to press their concerns with governments in the Middle East through diplomatic channels, the people said.

The G-7 has already imposed sanctions on Iran and North Korea for supplying Russia with weapons. The group has been looking to ramp up restrictions on firms in China and elsewhere that provide Russia with parts and technologies needed by Moscow to manufacture weapons — or for components found in them. More recent restrictions have targeted companies and individuals enabling such transactions.