On telecommunication networks design

For example, the number of fixed (common) telephone sets (TS) per capita is accounted for by consumer"s demand for communication services and a concept of of the development of telecommunication network of the country.

Demand for telecommunication services, in particular, for telephone communication (or Internet) through applications of citizens addressed to the Municipal Telephone Networks (or Providers) is as follows: Secured demand; Demonstration demand; Potential demand.

Secured (or satisfied) demand is the number of action lines (established TS) in the telephone communication. As a matter of fact, Secured demand is a real data on capacities of existing telephone network of towns and villages worldwide.

Demonstration demand is the one secured plus registered applications on telephone installation at the present moment, i.e. the number of application of citizens on telephone installation.

Potential demand is the sum of Demonstration demand of unregistered and unaccounted demands and applications of citizens on telephone sets.

It is natural that unaccounted applications are dependent upon prospective requests of population on establishing telephone communication. Ordinarily, prospective demand is mostly dependent upon three factors: high fares; poor service; media lack.

To my thinking, the demands stated above are projected even for many developing countries.

Nowadays, in terms of scientific-technological revolution there is the enhanced role of telecommunications. For instance, telecommunications of the developed countries thrived steadily the whole post-war period (since 1950-s). In so doing, the rates of this development outgrew other branches of economy. Suffice it to remind that rates of capital investments in the telecommunication are notable for their high level in all industrially developed countries worldwide where a share of telecommunications in the national income has practically redoubled over each 5-year period.

It must be said that research into profitability of financial assets allocated by various countries for the development of their telecommunications from Gross National Income (GNI) indicated that best tools needed for this purpose are within the limits of 0,4¸1% of GNI. However, a figure in the former USSR (over 70 years) stood at 0,1¸0,2% of GNI while a figure in the USA stood at 0,2¸1,5%; in Europe - 0,3¸1,0% of GNI.

In the former Soviet Union, everything was standardized by averaged values of TS installation applications, not by a real demand for these services, many design data were "beamed down" by the State Planning Committee with due regard for national limits.

Investments demonstrate that on telecommunication networks they are classified by three main groups: 1. domestic investments; 2. maintenance service investments and 3. investments for perspective development of the whole branch.

Under ITU recommendations, investments in the development of telephone network are made of five items:

- network of subscribers - up to 30%,

- transfer system - up to 13%,

- cross-connect equipment - up to 32%,

- power supply equipment - up to 12%,

- communication network buildings - up to 13%.

For factors cited above, a local telecommunication administration of the Ministry of Communication has to focus on the study, regulation, adoption of resolution, recommendations and proposals, as well as analysis and collection of data on all issues of a local communication network and information technologies (especially for rural communication).

It should be noted that questions of projecting present-day communication networks are in the limelight of a communication administration of any country, and tasks of this sort are usually accomplished by design organizations (institutes), if any. Note that the institution of this type for developing countries is the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Telecommunication_Union)

Analysis of the projects provides the following:

1. Definition of all basic data: number of sources (subscribers); number of information transfers; linear and stationary points of the country.

2. Distribution of sources and information destination in the space for projected period.

The above-mentioned calls for integration of all telecommunication services within the framework of common network. A key factor of this integration is the economy at the expense of joint use of commutation facilities and communication channels.

Principles of telecommunication network designing are many sided to include various aspects of network development, starting with usual colloquiums at local level and finishing with the creation of fundamental telecommunication development projects. It is essential to take into account a final objective of the projected communication network: services forecasting, equipment specification, network hierarchy, technical operation, planning, personnel training, financing and organization of national producers.

In the former Soviet Union the projects of this sort were titled General development project; and Master-Plan abroad. It must be said that these projects have to be carried out in complex to cover every residential area of the country with due regard for:

- network of administrative-regional territories;

- large urban telephone networks;

- inter-urban communication networks;

- networks of country"s capital;

- international communication;

- network of mainline communication across the country, etc.

As a matter of fact, today the Master-Plan is a document of strategic planning of country"s communication network (urban, rural, inter-urban, international...). In all probability, this plan has to be approved legislatively in Azerbaijan, by Milli Majlis.

As a rule, projects of telecommunication network development with due regard for ITU recommendations are made of parts as follows:

1. Project strategy;

2. Project basic data;

3. Future development of communication network scenario;

4. Network development final objective;

5. Traffic forecast and projection;

6. Fundamental technical plan;

7. Short- and long-term development plans;

8. Equipment and network;

9. Operation and servicing aspects;

10. Network organization and management;

11. Personnel planning (training and retraining);

12. Financing;

13. Organization of local (national) producer, etc.

Every part of the General plan (МMaster-plan) of country"s communication network development is designed for a long-term period (approx. 20-25 years) together with huge labor input. As a matter of fact, first four parts of the General plan are none other than a concept of communication network development.

The most volume part of the General plan is a fundamental technological scheme consisting of seven principal parts:

It should be noted that the project formulation is accompanied by all necessary recommendations and reference books on this multi-sided and complex work. Network planning and design computational component for 20-25 years is based on the fifth part of the Master-Plan "Forecast and projection of traffic" which was executed by me, first Azerbaijani, UN expert in the line of the ITU in Geneva, within the framework of three ITU projects.

As is known, every 5-7 years the ITU issues its recommendations titled Orange, Red, Yellow, Blue, White, etc. Books. These multi-volume scientific-technical works are hand- and reference-books world designers. Even more, the ITU issues special textbooks of methodic - manuals on communication network engineering, teletraffic theory, forecasting, etc.

The point is about some aspects of forecasting applied in modern telecommunication networks based ITU recommendations where scientifically substantiated parts of the Master-Plan include questions of traffic forecast as a design material. The key tool for the research is statistical materials both for separate villages, towns and populated localities and for the whole country (commonly implemented by national communication institutes of the country).

Below-cited are basic data on design-engineering surveys:

1. Size and growth percentage of all populated localities of the country covered by the Master-Plan for 20-25 years;

2. Actual chronology of capacities growth of РАТС, ГТС and Automatic Telephone System (АТS) over all populated localities of the country;

3. Particulars of the actual structural composition of subscribers of rural and urban telephone networks of the country;

4. Actual data on the quality of communication services for projected network of telecommunication and related network losses;

5. Administrative significance of regions, towns and projected residential areas;

6. Administrative-economic communication of regions and populated localities with the capital and internally;

7. Existing measured statistical data on traffic parameters in country"s telecommunications;

8. Demand of projected country for communication services within subsequent 10-15 years;

9. Анализ of workforce capacity, methods of its training and perspective potentialities;

10. Actual data on per capita income across the country;

11. Average family density forecast in the projected period.

Explorations revealed the following principles of prognostic method of communication network projection:

-research and analysis of the current state of country"s telecommunication network;

-collection and data measurement on the quality of communication services and network losses; forecast of subscribers" demand for telecommunication services in perspective (20-25 years);

-network traffic by areas of activity (a part of fundamental technical plan);

-volume of innovated traffic capacity and its forecast on annual basis, etc.

It is no mere coincidence that today"s priority task of Azerbaijani telecommunications is the restructuring of communication system management together with identification of all necessary technical issues of the Master-Plan (for 20-25 years). It has to be remembered that availability of cadres plus their scientific potential forms the mainstay of effective development of the communication sector of Azerbaijan (including sectoral institutions).

The essential point to remember is that the disintegration of the USSR revealed that no progress was achievable without professionals, through administrative tools only, hence, implementation of technical policy in the communication sector calls for fundamental principles of projection, regulation, management and cadre training. The latter is of particular importance, for the development of strategic communication sector it is essential to rely on national cadres of the country (as evidenced by unmitigated disaster in autumn 2015 in the Ministry of Communication over nearly 150-years history of Azerbaijani telecommunications). http://minval.az/news/123512826

Added to the above can be that the telecommunication projecting is not a matter of a single specialist, professional or administration of communication sector. In all appearances, the country feels the need in sectoral communication structures (educational, scientific-research and design institutes) similarly those in the oil industry or three-in-one as exemplified by a newly created University of Transport and Communication of Azerbaijan.

In my view, to remedy the situation it is essential to draw up a Master-Plan with due account for ITU recommendations by five directions: