Political Monitoring

Chronicle of events

30.11.23: Azerbaijani Interior Minister Vilayat Eyvazov sent a message to the US-based Committee for the Protection of Journalists. Eyvazov said by email that the allegations that the charges against Hasanli, Vagifgizi and Kekalov are related to their work are "completely groundless," a statement on the CPJ website.

01.12.23: Against the background of deteriorating relations between the United States and Azerbaijan, Miles Hansen, head of the Board of the American Sterling Foundation, arrived in Baku. Strangely enough, he was received by Sheikh Allahshukur Pashazade, who praised the Sterling Foundation's participation in the demining of the liberated territories.

01.12.23: The Khatai Court of Baku authorized the arrest of Nargiz Absalyamova, a journalist of the online publication AbzasMedia, for 3 months on charges of smuggling by prior agreement with a group of persons (206.3.2) of the Criminal Code of Azerbaijan.

01.12.23: Еhe Union “For Freedom of Political Prisoners of Azerbaijan” (FFPPA) published an updated list of political prisoners, which includes names of 254 people. Over the past two months, the number of political prisoners has grown by 19 people.

01.12.23: Head of state Ilham Aliyev arrived in Dubai to participate in the World Climate Summit (COP28). He held a meeting with UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. According to the official message, the parties touched upon the participation of the Masdar company from the UAE in the creation of the Garadagh solar power plant in Azerbaijan.

01.12.23:   The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) has strongly criticized an Azerbaijani court's decision to detain journalist Nargiz Absalamova for three months, urging the authorities to release her and her fellow journalists from Abzas Media.

02.12.23: Late in the evening,  the new U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan Mark Libby arrived in Baku.  He made a brief statement to the press in Azerbaijani, saying that he was very happy to come to Azerbaijan.

02.12.23: Khatai District Court of Baku sentenced an employee of the  Internet television channel Kanal-13 Rufat Muradli to 30 days of arrest. He was found guilty under Art. 535.1 (failure to comply with the lawful demands of the police) of the Code of Administrative Offences. This was reported by lawyer Nazim Musayev.

02.12.23: Chief of the General Staff of Azerbaijan Kerim Veliyev and other representatives of the leadership of the Ministry of Defense visited military units located in the Gedabey, Dashkesan and Kalbajar directions bordering Armenia. As part of the inspection trip, the organization of the service of troops and combat duty in units stationed in high-altitude areas was checked, the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan reports.

03.12.23: The Azerbaijan Democracy and Welfare Party (ADWP) issued a statement in connection with the arrest of the deputy chairman of this organization, the host of Kanal-13 Internet television, Rufat Muradli.

03.12.23: In a strongly-worded statement, the Community of Western Azerbaijan has expressed its dismay over a recent report aired on the Franco-German Arte channel, denouncing it as a portrayal of the "chimeras" harbored by Karabakh Armenians. The report suggested that Armenia, having fortified itself, harbors aspirations to "reclaim Karabakh" and propagate anti-Turkish sentiments, igniting concerns about ethnic hatred and unwillingness to coexist under the Azerbaijani flag.

04.12.23: Activist and former police officer Ilhamiz Guliyev was detained in Baku. This comes after he gave an interview to Abzas Media in which he spoke about how police authorities use “undocumented drugs in political arrests.”

04.12.23: The Armenian Ministry of Defense reported the death of an Armenian military man on the border with Azerbaijan. However, the Azerbaijani military department denied information about the opening of fire from the Azerbaijani side. “We categorically refute this information, which is provocative in nature,” the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense said in a statement.

04.12.23: Freelance journalists Aytaj Mammadli and Shahla Kerim were detained in Lankaran and subjected to psychological pressure from employees of the executive branch and the police,  the journalists themselves stated. According to the girls, they were in Lankaran to prepare a report.

04.12.23: A preparatory hearing on the case of Armenian serviceman Gagik Voskanyan, detained in the Kelbajar region, was held at the Sabunchu district court of Baku.

04.12.23:  Border guards prevented another drug smuggling from Iran with a total weight of almost 27 kg.

05.12.23:    The United States said that it will continue to engage with Azerbaijan to convey its concerns both in bilateral relations and peace, TURAN's Washington correspondent reports.

05.12.23: The commanders of the Navies of Azerbaijan and Iran, Subhan Bekirov and Shahram Irani, discussed prospects for the development of cooperation between the two countries in the naval sphere in Baku. The parties expressed the importance of conducting joint exercises in the Caspian Sea in order to improve the professionalism of military personnel and exchange experience, the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan.

05.12.23: The Milli Majlis adopted the Law "On the restoration of the Agderinsky district" with the administrative center in the city of the same name. In Soviet times, the historical toponym "Agdere" was replaced by the Armenian "Mardakert" and the area under this name was included in the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region of Azerbaijan.

05.12.23: Reporters Without Borders called for stopping the wave of repression against journalists in Azerbaijan.

05.12.23: Vagif Akperov, born in 1992, a sapper of the National Mine Clearance Agency (ANAMA) blew up on an anti-personnel mine near the village of Saryjaly in the Aghdam region. According to ANAMA, the incident occurred during the performance of the sapper's official duties. The victim was evacuated to a regional hospital, where his right leg was amputated below the knee. His health condition is of moderate severity.

05.12.23: The Committee for the Protection of Journalists (CPJ) has called on Azerbaijani authorities to release journalist Rufat Muradli and cease repressive actions against the independent press, highlighting concerns over a trend of arrests targeting media professionals.

05.12.23: The 3+3 regional platform is becoming more and more promising. This was stated on Tuesday by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, opening talks with Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov.

06.12.23: The Yasamal district court chose a preventive measure in the form of arrest for a period of 4 months against public activist Ilhamiz Guliyev. He was charged under Art. 234.4.3 (large-scale drug trafficking). Guliyev denied the accusation and linked it to an interview he gave to the online publication Abzas Media, said lawyer Zibeyda Sadigova.

06.12.23: Baku positively assesses the results of  visit of U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James O´Brien. Such conclusioun can be made from the official statement on result of Ilham Aliyev's meeting with O´Brien.  Aliyev noted the importance of O'Brien's visit to discuss various aspects of bilateral relations and exchange ideas on regional issues, the press service of the President of Azerbaijan reads.

06.12.23: In Armenia, the court of Appeal has toughened the punishment of Azerbaijani soldier Huseyn Akhundov, replacing imprisonment for 20 years with life imprisonment, the Armenian media reported. In April of this year, soldiers Huseyn Akhundov and Agshin Babirov, who served in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, got lost and found themselves on the territory of Armenia. They were detained there and charged with criminal offences.

06.12.23: Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov received Rear Admiral Shahram Irani, Commander of the Iranian Naval forces, who is in Baku. The prospects of cooperation between the two countries in the military sphere, regional security and other issues were discussed at the meeting.

06.12.23: Azerbaijan should have simplified access to Nakhchivan, Ilham Aliyev said at an international conference in Baku.

06.12.23: Azerbaijan's foreign policy concept does not imply the country's accession to the European Union. Head of State Ilham Aliyev stated this while addressing an international conference in Baku.

06.12.23:  In a significant diplomatic address, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev dismissed any notions of a forthcoming war against Armenia, asserting the commitment to peaceful resolutions in the region. President Aliyev's statements came during his participation in the international conference titled "Karabakh: Returning Home after 30 Years. Achievements and Difficulties" at ADA University in Baku.

06.12.23: In response to the criminal case against the journalists of "Abzas Media", a number of journalists who collaborated with this publication were summoned and questioned. On December 5, journalist Shamistan Haziyev was interrogated, and on December 6, Leyla Aghayeva was summoned to the investigation. According to investigative journalist Hafiz Babaly, the investigation seized the bank accounts of a number of persons involved in the investigation and their family members.

06.12.23: Azerbaijani Defense Minister Colonel General Zakir Hasanov held high-level talks with Army General Irfan Ozsert, First Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Turkish Armed Forces.General Ozsert's official visit to Azerbaijan was dedicated to his participation in the 15th high-level military dialogue meeting between Azerbaijan and Turkey, which became a turning point in the ongoing military cooperation between the two countries.

07.12.23: The Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe at its 1483rd meeting on December 5-7 called on Azerbaijan to urgently adopt a law on alternative service.

07.12.23: The EU Delegation, the Embassies of Great Britain, Switzerland and the United States organized an event in connection with World Human Rights Day. Western diplomats expressed support for the journalists arrested in Azerbaijan.

07.12.23: A group of socio-political activists announced the creation of the Platform III Republic structure.  The goal is the establishment of a genuine republican system in Azerbaijan.

08.12.23: Moscow is pleased with the joint statement of the leadership of Azerbaijan and Armenia on their intention to normalize relations and conclude a peace treaty, the comments of the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova.

08.12.23: Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov and Secretary General of the Council of Europe Marija Pejcinovic-Buric discussed issues of bilateral cooperation and the situation in the region in Baku.

08.12.23: Head of State Ilham Aliyev received Secretary General of the Council of Europe Maria Peychinovich Burich. According to the press service of the President of the country, Burich stressed that she highly appreciates the reforms being implemented in Azerbaijan and the steps taken to ensure sustainable peace in the region. Regarding yesterday's joint statement by Azerbaijan and Armenia and the measures resulting from it to restore trust between the two countries, the Council of Europe is ready to contribute to strengthening relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. In response, Aliyev said that the joint statement of Azerbaijan and Armenia "is a demonstration of mutual political will to promote a mutual peaceful agenda and normalize relations between the countries."

08.12.23: Azerbaijan has sent another batch of electric power equipment to Ukraine. Ukrainian Ambassador to Azerbaijan Vladyslav Kanevsky wrote about it on his Facebook page. "This humanitarian cargo consists of transformers and cable equipment. The aid will be distributed to the regions where there is the greatest need," he noted, adding that "this is the aid that only a true and loyal friend provides."

9.12.23: The Central Election Commission of Azerbaijan approved on the eve of the calendar plan of the main events for the preparation and holding of early presidential elections in the country, which are scheduled for February 7, 2024.

09.12.23: The Azerbaijani Defence Ministry has held a meeting of the Collegium of the Ministry dedicated to the results of the passing year 2023. The Defence Ministry's press service reports that the meeting analyzed in detail the current situation in the country and reviewed the results of the year 2023. Also, the Ministry informed of the current operational situation on the conditional Azerbaijani-Armenian border, as well as the issues of organisation and conduct of service of the troops.

09.12.23: By the decree of the head of state dated, Assistant to the President for Military Affairs Maharram Aliyev was relieved of his post. By another order, he has been appointed Ambassador of Azerbaijan to Belarus.

09.12.23: UN Secretary-General António Guterres welcomes the joint statement issued the previous day by the Presidential Administration of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Office of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia. UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said this at a briefing in New York.

09.12.23: The Musavat Party has issued a statement due to the appointment of early Presidential elections in Azerbaijan on February 7. It says that "since 1993, no democratic elections or referendum have ever been held in Azerbaijan." "The Musavat Party demands the removal of all obstacles and restrictions for holding elections in terms of equal political competition," the Party's statement concludes.

10.12.23: The launch ceremony of the Bulgaria-Serbia gas interconnector was held in the Serbian city of Nis. The presidents of Azerbaijan , Serbia and Bulgarıa took part in the ceremony.

10.12.23: The Joint Armenian-Azerbaijani Group on Confidence-building Measures in Support of Lasting Peace in the South Caucasus supported the joint statement of the Administration of the President of Azerbaijan and the Office of the Prime Minister of Armenia dated December 7. In particular, the Joint Group welcomed the agreement on the release of prisoners and other confidence-building measures between the parties.

11.12.23:  Iranian political emigrant Puya Purhemmeti, detained on October 12 while crossing the Azerbaijani border, has been released under house arrest.

11.12.23: Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Ceyhun Bayramov met with Simon Mordue, Chief Adviser to the President of the European Council on Foreign Policy, on the sidelines of the Eastern Partnership ministerial meeting. The sides discussed a wide range of issues related to Azerbaijan-EU cooperation and prospects for normalization of Azerbaijani-Armenian relations.

11.12.23: Arshad Ibrahimov, the head of the dunyaninsesi.az website operating in Ganja , was detained by employees of the Main Directorate for Combating Organized Crime (MDCOCP) of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. He was charged under  the Article 282.2.2 of the Criminal Code of Azerbaijan (extortion by threats, committed repeatedly) .

11.12.23: Azerbaijan has once again extended the duration of the special quarantine regime related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The regime has been extended until 06.00 on the second of April. 2024 Previously, the quarantine regime was extended until 06.00 on 2 January.

11.12.23: President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev received the Speaker of the Parliament of Georgia Shalva Papuashvili. Aliyev emphasized the successful development of bilateral friendly and brotherly relations between Azerbaijan and Georgia in all spheres.

11.12.23: Ibrahim Humbatov (Ibrahim Gubadoglu), head of "Azerinfo.az website", has been detained. The Interior Ministry's press service reports that Gumbatov was detained on the basis of citizens' appeals. "The head of the website is accused of publishing materials discrediting individuals and extorting money from them for non-replication of kompromat. A measure of restraint in the form of arrest for four months has been chosen against him," the Interior Ministry said in a statement.

11.12.23: In Brussels, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov was received by the High Representative of the European Union for External Relations and Security Policy Joseph Borrell. According to the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, bilateral relations between the European Union and Azerbaijan, including within the framework of the Eastern Partnership, as well as the current situation in the region were discussed at the meeting.

12.12.23: One Russian serviceman was killed and two injured in Nagorno-Karabakh, TASS reported, citing the Russian Defence Ministry. The Ministry said that the BTR-82 of the Russian peacekeeping contingent had veered off a mountain road.

12.12.23: The Narimanovsky District Court elected YouTube channel Kanal-11 Teimur Kerimov was given a preventive measure in the form of arrest for a period of 4 months. He was charged under Art. 182.2.2 (extortion by threats, committed repeatedly) and 182.2.4 (extortion with the aim of seizing property in a significant amount) of the Criminal Code, lawyer Nemat Karimli told Turan.

12.12.23:  A meeting of the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Ukraine took place in Bussel within the framework of the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the Eastern Partnership countries. During the meeting, the "Formula for Peace" proposed by Zelensky, the President  of Ukraine, as well as bilateral relations, were discussed.

13.12.23: The United States welcomed the exchange of prisoners of war between Armenia and Azerbaijan and reports that additional confidence-building measures are being discussed. This was stated by the press secretary of the State Department, Matthew Miller, to the Washington correspondent of TURAN during a briefing.

13.12.23:  Editor of the economic department, investigative journalist Hafiz Babaly was detained as part of a criminal case against employees of the Abzas Media publication.

13.12.23:  The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) has strongly condemned the detention of investigative journalist Hafiz Babali and called for the immediate release of him and other journalists currently held by Azerbaijani authorities.

13.12.23: An exchange of prisoners of war between Azerbaijan and Armenia took place on the border of the Gazakh region at exactly 15:30. As a result of the exchange, Azerbaijan released 32 Armenian prisoners of war, and in response, Armenia released two Azerbaijani prisoners.

13.12.23: The international human rights organization Amnesty International has expressed alarm about the intensification of repression against independent media in Azerbaijan. The organization called the arrest of the head of the Kanal-11 Youtube project Teymur Kerimov in Baku the latest example of this trend.

13.12.23: The State Department reacted to the latest arrest in Azerbaijan's media crackdown. Journalist Hafiz Babali from an anticorruption outlet AbzasMedia, who also works as economics editor at Turan News Agency, was detained yesterday on trumped-up charges before court placed him in pre-trial detention for 3 months. "The recent trend of detaining journalists is deeply troubling. We continue to urge the Azerbaijani government to respect the human rights and fundamental freedoms of all, including those exercising freedom of expression," a State Department spokesperson told TURAN's Washington correspondent.

14.12.23: During a search on the evening, funds in foreign and national currency were found in the house of Tofig Yagublu, a member of the coordination center of the National Council of Democratic Forces. Tofig Yagublu was involved as a suspect in connection with a criminal case opened under articles 178.3.2 (fraud, causing major damage), 320.1 (forgery of official documents) and 320.2 (use of knowingly forged documents) of the Criminal Code of Azerbaijan.  This was announced by lawyer Agyl Laidj.

14.12.23: The Khatai District Court of Baku arrested investigative journalist Hafiz Babaly for 3 months, during the investigation period.

14.12.23: British Ambassador to Azerbaijan Fergus Auld expressed his disappointment over the arrests of journalists in Azerbaijan, including Hafiz Babaly. "Among the news about the arrests in Azerbaijan, I was even more saddened by the news of the arrest of Hafiz Babaly. Freedom of the press is an important pillar of democracy and the countries of the Council of Europe must ensure the rights of journalists to prepare reports without restrictions and threats to them," the ambassador wrote on the social platform “X.”

14.12.23: By order of the head of state, special military colleges for warrant officers are being established in Azerbaijan at the National Defense University in Baku, Ganja and Nakhchivan.  These institutions will train professional warrant officers, the press service of the President of the country said in a statement.

14.12.23: Investigative journalist Hafiz Babaly was charged at the Baku City police headquarters under Article 206.3.2 (smuggling committed by prior agreement by a group of persons) of the Criminal Code of Azerbaijan. Lawyer Rasul Jafarov told Turan about this.

14.12.23: An Iranian citizen was detained near the village of Beyuk Bahmanly, Fizuli region. According to the State Border Service of Azerbaijan on December 15, a bundle of 15, 6 kg of marijuana was seized from the violator.

15.12.23: The new US Ambassador to Azerbaijan, Mark Libby, presented his credentials to Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov.

15.12.23: The Narimanov District Court of Baku arrested Tofig Yagublu, a member of the “Musavat” party and the Coordinating National Council of Democratic Forces, for 4 months.

15.12.23: The Board of the “Musavat” party discussed the socio-political situation in the country and decided to refuse to participate in the early presidential elections.

15.12.23: The Norwegian Foundation "Houses of Human Rights" called on the Azerbaijani authorities to put an end to repression.

15.12.23: The current head of state, Ilham Aliyev, was nominated by the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party as a Presidential candidate in the early elections on February 7, 2024.

15.12.23:  Public activist Mohyaddin Orujev has been arrested on charges of drug trafficking. The court chose a preventive measure against him in the form of arrest for a period of 4 months. Orujev is charged under Article 234.4.3 (large-scale drug trafficking) of the Criminal Code of Azerbaijan. He faces 5 to 12 years in prison. The young man was detained on December 13, but the activist's family was not initially informed about the place of his detention.

16.12.23: The Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan (PFPA) decided to boycott the early presidential elections on February 7.

16.12.23:  Azerbaijani Prime Minister Ali Asadov arrived in Moscow  to participate in a working visit, the message of the Cabinet of Ministers.

16.12.23: Chairman of the Great Creation Party (Böyük Quruluş), head of the Parliamentary Committee on Culture Fazil Mustafa and Chairman of the Board of the Center for Social Research, deputy Zahid Oruj were nominated as presidential candidates in the February 7 elections.

16.12.23: The Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan (PFPA) demanded the release of political prisoners in the country. This is stated in the PFPA statement adopted at the party congress held.

17.12.23: Chairman of the Great Azerbaijan Party (GAP) Elshad Musayev has been nominated as a presidential candidate in the early presidential elections on February 7.

18.12.23: The National Council of Democratic Forces (NCDF) issued a statement  calling on "international organisations and the democratic world" to impose targeted sanctions against the ruling regime in Azerbaijan over political repression.

19.12.23: OSCE/ODIHR representatives hold meetings with political parties.

19.12.23: The Narimanov District Court of Baku rejected a request to transfer the arrested opposition economist Gubad Ibadoglu to a medical institution of the Ministry of Justice.

19.12.23: Youtube TV director arrested for illegal construction of a house “Channel 13” Aziz Orujev is accused of smuggling money by a group of persons (206.3.2) of the Criminal Code.

19.12.23: Orhan Hajili, the son of Musavat party leader Arif Hajili, has been granted house arrest, according to lawyer Nemat Kerimli's statement to Turan. The Yasamal District Court of Baku approved the defense's request for the transfer.

19.12.23:  Deputy Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Elnur Mammadov received Martina Barker-Chiganikova and Goran Petrov, representatives of the Needs Assessment Mission of the OSCE Bureau of Democratic Institutions and Human Rights.

20.12.23:   The Baku Court of Appeals did not satisfy the complaints of other jailed "Abzas Media" journalists, their family members, and other persons involved in this case regarding disclosure of financial information, blocking of bank accounts and cards.

20.12.23: The head of state visited the Khojavend and Khojaly regions of Karabakh. According to the press service of the president, Aliyev and his wife visited the village of Krasny Bazar, the village of Shykh and the village of Shushakend.

20.12.23: The international human rights organization Human Rights Watch (HRW) condemned the arrest of opposition leader Tofig Yagublu in Azerbaijan. The organization called on the authorities to immediately release Yagubla and stop the repression against critical journalists and opposition activists.

20.12.23: Head of state Ilham Aliyev has sent a message to Pope Francis on the occasion of the upcoming Christmas.

20.12.23: Ilham Aliyev received Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz. The meeting of the Azerbaijani-Turkish intergovernmental commission was discussed, as well as prospects for the development of cooperation between  countries in various fields.

21.12.23:   The European Union (EU) has expressed concern about the recent arrests of journalists, opposition politicians and public activists in Azerbaijan. The European Union calls on Azerbaijan to "release those imprisoned for exercising their fundamental rights and ensure a free and unhindered space for independent journalism and freedom of expression."

21.12.23: U.S. Chargé d'Affaires in Azerbaijan Hugo Guevara met with Nigar Hazi, the daughter of the arrested opposition politician Tofig Yagublu.

21.12.23:  A football match for the Azerbaijan Cup between the Garabagh teams and the Central Army Club was held in Khankyandi. Ilham Aliyev arrived at the local stadium and addressed the audience, congratulating everyone on the liberation of Karabakh.

21-22.12.23: Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko held consultations on regional and European security issues with Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov in Baku, the message of the Russian Foreign Ministry. According to the same source, Grushko was also received by the assistants of the President of Azerbaijan Hikmet Hajiyev, Elchin Amirbekov and the head of the committee of the Milli Majlis Samad Seyidov.

22.12.23:  Shahin Verdiyev, recognized as a political prisoner, attempted suicide in the Ganja pre-trial detention center-2 in protest against accusations of drug trafficking, his mother, Irina Jafarova, told Turan. "Early in the morning, he tried to hang himself in his cell, but the rope broke. After that, the cellmate did not allow him to hang himself again," she said.

22.12.23: Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesman Ayhan Hajizade commented on the statement of the European Union condemning the arrests of journalists in Azerbaijan. "We strongly reject the unfounded accusations of the European Union regarding the detention of journalists and political activists in Azerbaijan. We consider such unfounded and biased statements as an attempt to interfere with the independence of the judiciary in Azerbaijan," Hajizade said.

22.12.23:  Head of state Ilham Aliyev visited the village of Turshsu in the Shusha region of Karabakh. This village has been under Armenian occupation since 1992. Turshsu is known as a source of healing waters, where the All-Union sanatorium has been located since the Soviet times.

22.12.23: The "President" of Karabakh canceled his decree on the dissolution of the "NKR". The decree on the dissolution of the “Nagorno-Karabakh Republic”  (NKR) no longer exists. Vladimir Grigoryan, advisor to the "president", told the Armenian service of “Radio Liberty” on December 22. According to him, the basis for this is the decree of the "president" dated October 19, according to which all "members of the government, parliament, secretary of the Security Council, law enforcement agencies, mayor of Stepanakert and heads of administrative districts continue to hold positions on a voluntary basis."  Shahramanyan's decree also states that the documents issued on behalf of the "NKR" after October 1, 2023, are valid.

23.12.23: Arrested Chairman of the Democracy and Welfare Party, academic economist Gubad Ibadoglu has sent messages from the Kurdakhany pre-trial detention centre due to the snap Presidential election scheduled for 7 February. Ibadoglu called for the release of all political prisoners, the registration of the Democracy and Prosperity Party, and the creation of normal conditions for the opposition to operate.

23.12.23: French Ambassador to Azerbaijan Anne Boillon met with Nigar Khazi, the daughter of arrested opposition leader Tofik Yagublu. "The topic of conversation, of course, was Tofik Yagublu and other political prisoners," Nigar Khazi wrote on Facebook.

23.12.23: The Foreign Ministers of Russia and Azerbaijan, Sergey Lavrov and Jeyhun Bayramov, had a telephone conversation which "discussed a number of topical issues of bilateral relations and cooperation on the South Caucasus." This is stated in the message of the Russian Foreign Ministry.

24.12.23: Araz Aliyev, a member of the NIDA Public Movement and the “Third Republic” platform, was arrested by a court decision for 25 days of administrative arrest.

25.12.23: Pope Francis in his Christmas message "Urbi et Orbi" expressed hope for peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the New Year. “May the day of definitive peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan draw near. May it be advanced by the pursuit of humanitarian initiatives, by the return of refugees to their homes in legality and security, and by reciprocal respect for religious traditions and the places of worship of each community,” the Pope's message reads

25.12.23: President Ilham Aliyev announced 2024 the «Year of Solidarity of the Green World» in our country. The document says that one of the five national priorities of Azerbaijan's socio-economic development until 2030 is defined as «a country of clean environment and green growth».

25.12.23: The Classical Party of the People's Front of Azerbaijan (CPPF) has refused to participate in the extraordinary Presidential elections as stating the lack of democratic conditions for the election campaign in the country.

26.12.23: “Platform III Republic” will not nominate a candidate for the early presidential elections on February 7 and will not support any candidate in them, the statement of the structure, in which it expresses its position in connection with the elections.

26.12.23: The CEC of Azerbaijan approved the nomination of 8 more candidates for president. In particular, the candidacies of Sarvan Kerimov (engaged in scientific activities), Matlab Mutallimli (former MP), Abutalyb Samedov (former MP Fikret Yusifov (ex-Finance Minister), Yusif Bagirzade (ex-MP and ex-CEC member), Yunus Oguz (editor-in-chief of the newspaper Olaylar) , Arzuman Abdulkerimov (former vice president of the pro-state party "Otechestva") and Gulamhusein Alibeyli were approved (ex-MP, former head of the Supreme Mejlis of the Popular Front Party). Thus, the number of approved candidates has reached 15.

26.12.23: The human rights situation in Azerbaijan continued to deteriorate in 2023, fundamental freedoms were violated in the country, and the number of political prisoners increased, the report of the Monitoring Center for Political Prisoners.

26.12.23: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev held a meeting with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko within the framework of the informal summit of heads of state in St. Petersburg. During the meeting, the successful development of friendly relations between the two countries in various fields was noted with satisfaction.

26.12.23: French Ambassador to Baku Anne Boillon was invited to the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry. According to the press service of the country's foreign ministry, it was brought to his attention that two employees of the French Embassy were declared persona non grata by the Government of Azerbaijan in connection with activities contrary to the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations of 1961.

26.12.23: In a tragic incident an employee of the Agency of the Republic of Azerbaijan for Mine Clearance (ANAMA) met with a mine explosion in the Aghdam district, as disclosed by ANAMA sources. Mahmudov Zaur Eldaroglu, born in 1982, became the unfortunate victim while fulfilling his duties in the village of Sarydzhaly.

26.12.23: President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev arrived in St. Petersburg today to participate in the informal summit of the CIS heads of state.

26.12.23: In a telephone conversation, Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Iran – Ceyhun Bayramov and Hussein Amir Abdollahian discussed issues on the agenda of bilateral and multilateral cooperation; the situation in the region, and prospects for the Azerbaijani-Armenian normalization of relations.

26.12.23: As part of the informal CIS summit in St. Petersburg, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan held a short meeting.

27.12.23: The French Foreign Ministry announced the expulsion of two Azerbaijani diplomats from the country. France notes the decision taken by Azerbaijan to declare two members of the French Embassy in Azerbaijan persona non grata. It categorically rejects the allegations presented by Azerbaijan to justify its decision.

27.12.23:  The Republican Council of the Russian Community of Azerbaijan (RCA) has supported the decision of the ruling “Yeni Azerbaijan” party to nominate the candidacy of the current head of state Ilham Aliyev for the early presidential elections in 2023.

27.12.23: Two Iranian citizens were detained while trying to smuggle drugs, the State Border Service of Azerbaijan reported. Azerbaijani citizens Jamshidi Gulamrza Gachag oglu born in 1968 and Yusifzade Siyamek Samadulla oglu, born in 1988, were detained near the village of Khamoshan in the Astara region.

27.12.23: A preliminary investigation has been completed against the head of the independent confederation of trade unions "Working Platform" Afiyaddin Mammadov, as a result of which the charges against him were aggravated, lawyer Zibeida Sadigova told Turan. According to the results of the investigation, the activist was also charged under Articles 126.2.4 (intentional infliction of serious harm to health in a generally dangerous manner, from hooligan motives) and 228.4 (illegal trafficking of gas weapons, cold steel, including cold throwing weapons) of the Criminal Code of Azerbaijan. Now the maximum term of his prison sentence has increased to 11 years. On the evening of September 21, the Khatai District Court chose a preventive measure against Mammadov. Mammadov was charged under article 221.3 (hooliganism committed with the use of a weapon or an object used as a weapon) and 126.1 (intentional infliction of serious harm to health) of the Criminal Code of Azerbaijan, according to which he faced imprisonment for up to 8 years.

27.12.23: Three Pakistani citizens were detained while attempting to illegally cross the Azerbaijani border towards Georgia in order to further migrate to one of the European countries.

27.12.23: During operational searches, police officers arrested Imamverdi Iskenderov, a resident of Baku, born in 1993, suspected of drug trafficking. According to the press service of the Interior Ministry, 24 kg of narcotics and psychotropic substances were found and confiscated during a personal search and a search of the car, including 13 kg of dried marijuana enriched with psychotropic substances, 7 kg of heroin and 4 kg of methamphetamine.

27.12.23: Journalist Shamo Eminov, who co-operated with Youtube project "Kanal-13", has been arrested on smuggling charges. Eminov was detained on 22 December, his wife Durdana Eminova told Turan. In the evening of the same day, their home was searched.

27.12.23: The United States reiterated its call on the Azerbaijani government to respect the rights and freedoms of all, "including those exercising freedom of expression," as the State Department put it in response to the inquiry about the arrest of yet another journalist in Azerbaijan, TURAN's Washington correspondent reports.

28.12.23: There is progress in the package of proposals that Baku received from Yerevan on November 21, although disagreements between the parties still remain, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Ceyhun Bayramov said at today's press conference.  At the same time, he found it difficult to say "how close or far it is from the peace." I believe that if there is serious political will, a peace agreement can be concluded quickly. Otherwise, the process will be delayed," the minister stressed.

28.12.23: The judicial staff, chaired by the judge of the Baku Military Court, Zeynal Aghayev, today announced the verdict of a group of defendants accused of torturing former defendants in the "Terter case". The court sentenced the former chief of staff of the corps, Major General Bekir Orujev, to 9.5 years in prison. Ulvi Rashidov and Ziya Kazimov received the same sentence, Intigam Mammadov and Rahib Mammadov were sentenced to 6.5 years in prison. Rashidov and Kazimov were at large during the investigation and were arrested in the courtroom. The above-mentioned persons were charged under Articles 126.3 (intentional infliction of serious damage to the victim's health, resulting in his death due to carelessness) 145.3 (unlawful deprivation of liberty), 293.3 (use of torture or other forms of inhuman or degrading treatment), 341.2.2 (abuse of official authority) and other articles of the Criminal Code of Azerbaijan. Earlier, 4 more former military men were sentenced to prison terms ranging from 5.5 to 9.5 years in prison on similar charges.

28.12.23: Resumption of the activity of the Azerbaijani Embassy in Iran will depend on the results of the trial on the case of attack on the diplomatic mission and Tehran's provision of full security guarantees. This was stated by Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov at a press conference. The Azerbaijani side expects that the perpetrator of the offence must be punished severely.

29.12.23: “Eight villages should either be exchanged or the legal foundations of these territories should be determined, Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure of Armenia Gnel Sanosyan said, referring to the issue of Azerbaijani villages occupied by Armenia in the early 1990s. "There are some territories that Azerbaijan allocates in this regard, and there are territories that we are talking about," Sanosyan said, according to Armenian media. According to him, "either an exchange should be carried out, or the legal foundations of these territories should be determined."

29.12.23: A preparatory meeting on the case of public activist Bakhtiyar Hajiyev has begun in the Baku Court of Serious Crimes under the chairmanship of Judge Ali Mammadov. During the background check, when the judge informed about Hajiyev's detention in the pre-trial detention center, the activist made a remark that he was not a prisoner, but a "hostage".

29.12.23: The OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) has announced the start of its observer mission to the 7 February snap Presidential elections in Azerbaijan.  Head of the OSCE/ODIHR's observation mission Eoghan Murphy (Ireland) told a press conference in Baku that the mission will monitor the election campaign, the voting process and the tabulation of election results for 8 weeks.

30.12.23: Three human rights organizations of Azerbaijan announced the creation of a coalition to monitor the early presidential elections on February 7. The coalition called "My Voice", in particular, was established by the chairman of the Dilara Aliyeva Society for the Protection of Women's Rights, Novella Jafaroglu, the head of the Public Association for Human Rights and the Protection of the Rule of Law, Saida Gojamanli, and the head of the Azerbaijani division of the International Human Rights Organization Saadat Bananyarli.

30.12.23: The Milli Majlis ratified the Additional Protocol to the Council of Europe Convention on the Prevention of Terrorism. This document was signed on October 22, 2015 in Riga.

30.12.23: After the anti-terrorist operation in Karabakh, Moscow is considering all issues related to the presence of peacekeepers in the region exclusively with the Azerbaijani side, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said, as RIA-Novosti reports. At the same time, he noted that "according to the trilateral statement of the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia dated November 2020, Russian peacekeepers will be in the region until November 2025 with the possibility of further extension of their stay."

30.12.23: The Central Election Commission of Azerbaijan approved Avaz Temirkhan as a candidate for the presidency. Thus, the number of presidential candidates in the extraordinary presidential elections has increased to 17. Temirkhan is known for his opposition to the current government

30.12.23: President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev signed orders “On holding the 140th anniversary of Mamed Emin Rasulzadeh”.

30.12.23n: The Central Election Commission of Azerbaijan approved self-nominated human rights activist Namizad Safarov as a presidential candidate.
Safarov is known for his opposition views. He has a higher legal education and previously worked in investigative agencies. Since the early 1990s. He was engaged in advocacy and participated in the defense of political cases.

31.12.23:  First Vice President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Mehriban Aliyeva posted a congratulation on the occasion of December 31 - the Day of Solidarity of Azerbaijanis of the World and the New Year on her official Instagram page.

31.12.23: President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev addressed the nation with a comprehensive message on the occasion of the International Day of Solidarity of Azerbaijanis and conveyed sincere New Year's wishes. President Aliyev celebrates 2023 as a victorious year for Azerbaijan.

Aliyev is again ahead of the curve

07.12.23: President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev signed a decree calling early presidential elections for February 7, 2024. The document does not explain the political necessity of holding early elections, and only contains a reference to Article 179 of the Electoral Code, which provides for the holding of such elections. The Central Election Commission is ordered to ensure that elections are held within the specified period. Ilham Aliyev’s current 7-year term as head of state ends in April 2025.

"Azerbaijan's Political Chess: Decoding the Early Presidential Election Move"

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced on 6th December that early Presidential elections would be held on 7th February next. This decision stunned a society that had been waiting for the announcement of a referendum on constitutional amendments to deal with the new realities, including the resolution of the Karabakh problem, changes to the internal administrative borders, the system of governance of the executive branch, the transition to a proportional system of Parliamentary formation, the enhancement of the status of a government elected by a Parliamentary majority, and even the transition to a Parliamentary system of government.      

In fact, the symptoms of the Presidential election were already evident when the regime launched a massive political and ideological attack on Western institutions and civil society activists. This scenario preceded all Presidential elections and the cliché remained unchanged this time, except for the characters involved and the contemporary agenda linked to the post-conflict Karabakh issue. For instance, on the eve of the 2018 elections, at the government meeting on 7 October 2017, dedicated to the results of socio-economic development in the nine months of the outgoing year, Aliyev in the introductory part of the meeting attacked the West in a harsh manner, presenting a whole list of allegations against it, including double standards in relation to Azerbaijan, the Islamic world, Arab refugees and so on. The propagandistic tone set in motion extended to the April 2018 elections.

A reasonable question arises: Why did Aliyev preempt the referendum and call early Parliamentary elections?

Outlook-2018

On the eve of the first snap elections of 2018, in the article  Aliyev Outpaces Events, we tried to answer the questions that led the President to make a decision on snap elections:

The date of snap elections can be dictated mainly by the fact that for the first time in the entire period of Ilham Aliyev's rule (since 2003), elections are being held in conditions of economic, yes, and systemic crisis in general, which creates certain risks for the government, which is trying to hold elections without special excesses and the creation of additional problems. The snap elections leave little or no time to maneuver for the traditional opposition, for domestic opponents and for the West, which over the past year has put pressure on the regime.

The advantages for the President are as follows:

1. The discontent of a section of the electorate does not have the time and opportunity to develop into any kind of resistance movement, and in general the electorate will be amorphous with regard to what is happening.

2. The opposition in this situation has very little time to consolidate and shake up the situation. In practice, it will not be able to put up a decisive fight against Aliyev. They may even boycott the elections, which suits Aliyev and creates a complete atmosphere of non-alternativeness.

3 .The internal contradictions, which have heated up after the nomination of the First Lady to the newly created post of First Vice-President, will not have time to develop and will be successfully neutralized.

4. Western institutions will not have time to develop a unified and efficient approach to elections, their assessment and control.

As a matter of fact, Aliyev is favored to be re-elected this time for a seven-year term, which he introduced as a result of a referendum in the autumn of 2016. (The referendum on changes to the constitution set the legislative framework for accelerating the adoption and implementation of election decisions, as well as introducing structural changes to the supreme power system, introducing the institution of the vice-presidency, which led to an even greater concentration of power in the hands of the Aliyev family. The changes gave the President the authority to call elections on any date. Such a decision could be announced immediately after the Referendum, and based on the extension of the presidential term of office to 7 years, so its adoption could be accelerated to 2020. Adoption of such a decision is dependent entirely on the desire, interest and even mood of the President).

Added to this can be the major Karabakh factor, which since the collapse of the USSR has constantly influenced the internal political life of the country and, in particular, became a catalyst for instability.

Despite the fact that there is a legal basis for early elections in the legislation, the authorities did not logically and reasonably explain their political reasons. Although in 2018 the authorities at least tried to justify the need for early elections in some way. The official reasons for postponing the elections were linked to the 100th anniversary of the Republic, a humanitarian forum.

Outlook-2023

It seems that tactical stability is important for the President. If the Presidential elections were to be held after the referendum (which was the most expected) and after the Parliamentary and administrative system had been restructured and the conflict with Armenia remained still unresolved, there would be some risks. These things happen.

Another thing is that the provisional extension of the President's powers for the next seven years allows for consistent and uninterrupted management and a high level of control over the situation. The very fact of holding early elections is already a sign of the significant events we have to live through.  

It is worth recalling that the previous early elections-2018-were also preceded by early Parliamentary elections-2020, which led to a noticeable renewal of the deputy corps as well as the executive branch, and the formation of a new generation of high-ranking officials and servants of the people. And secondly, this early presidential term was marked by the second Karabakh war, complex negotiations with external partners and the promotion of significant international projects, including the creation of new alliances, transport and energy projects.  

It has to be kept in mind that, unlike the current situation, the 2016 referendum preceded the early Presidential and Parliamentary elections. But then the referendum laid the foundations for strengthening the Presidential power. A number of innovations were introduced, the most important of which were the removal of the two-term limit for the Presidential elections, the extension of the Presidential term from 5 to 7 years, and the introduction of the Vice-Presidency, which ensures the operational succession of power in case of force majeure. In the years that followed, we witnessed a rising concentration of power in the hands of the President, who became absolute, which not without reason led to the term "neo-monarchy" being used in political circles.

Add that this policy was justified from the point of view of the complete replacement of the old team inherited from Heydar Aliyev's period, the mobilization of forces and means that made it possible to ensure the centralized administration of the country in conditions of undeclared war and, as a result, the restoration of the territorial integrity of the country after 30 years of occupation.  

The post-war concentration of power has its disadvantages, caused by the low level of initiative of the team, including the executive and the Parliament. First, the established system is designed for unconditional execution, which is an extensive form that is not adapted to reforms. Second, the constant tension in the "power-society" coordinate system creates risks in the absence of an external threat related to the former Karabakh conflict, which to some extent consolidated the society, which still feels itself in the space of wartime. The pluses that can move Aliyev to reforms can be called the formation of power from people clearly aligned with his wishes and image. And redistribution, the delegation of a number of powers to the renewed team, can hardly pose a threat to his personal power, as happened with the oligarchic team he inherited in 2003.      

It is to remind that that the system of redistribution of powers between the President, Parliament and government allows for greater mobility. The expansion of the powers of the Parliament and the government under its control by the Presidency and the Parliamentary majority represented by the ruling “Yeni Azerbaijan” Party and its satellites, on the one hand, provides stability and, on the other hand, creates conditions for intra-command competition, which ensures the dynamics of the movement, including reforms aimed at modernizing the system on the one hand and strengthening Aliyev's political system on the other.

This is a kind of Surkovian "sovereign democracy" system, built within the regime, less subject to external influences and internal contradictions, and therefore more predictable in its management.

It stands to mention that there will be a number of important events next year after the Presidential elections.  Aliyev is not holding elections for the sake of elections. He is pursuing a strategy of political symbiosis: modernization and building the resilience of the system for years to come.

What about the West?

As the article Aliyev hints on early elections (8 October 2016) suggests, this isolationist policy by Aliyev, strange as it may seem at first glance, finds understanding in the otherwise camp of international democracy, which only in a soft and formal form expresses its duty surprise at the undemocratic nature of the process, but no more than that. This was particularly evident on the eve of and after the last referendum, when it was suggested that this event would open the way to major structural and political-economic changes agreed upon in the West. (This is also evidenced by the fact that the intense pressure on Aliyev from the US and its allies to reform the system ceased immediately after the announcement of the 18 July referendum on constitutional amendments to increase the powers of the Presidency).

This behavior will undoubtedly continue in the forthcoming Presidential elections, and the electoral process itself will become virtually a technical procedure, rather than a political contest between the various factions of the government and the opposition.

Despite his anti-Western rhetoric and suppression of opposition voices, Aliyev's Presidency has suited the West. During his rule, he has significantly strengthened economic ties with Europe by supporting strategic energy, pipeline and transport projects of the European Union, making the West as Azerbaijan's main economic partner. Given that the energy sector is Azerbaijan's basic industry, it is not difficult to see where exactly Azerbaijan has already integrated all of Aliyev's anti-Western rhetoric.

Step back

22.12.23: The "President" of Karabakh canceled his decree on the dissolution of the "NKR". The decree on the dissolution of the “Nagorno-Karabakh Republic”  (NKR) no longer exists. Vladimir Grigoryan, advisor to the "president", told the Armenian service of “Radio Liberty” on December 22. According to him, the basis for this is the decree of the "president" dated October 19, according to which all "members of the government, parliament, secretary of the Security Council, law enforcement agencies, mayor of Stepanakert and heads of administrative districts continue to hold positions on a voluntary basis."  Shahramanyan's decree also states that the documents issued on behalf of the "NKR" after October 1, 2023, are valid.

Non-fulfillment the commitments by the Karabakh separatists complicates the fragile peace process

As international mediators step up efforts to establish a comprehensive peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the fragile negotiation process is facing a new challenge from the Karabakh separatists. The separatists led by Samvel Shahramanyan, who earlier dissolved the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic on September 28, reversed their decision on December 22, making a choice outside Azerbaijan in favor of the actual restoration of the NKR.

Shahramanyan and his supporters declared the previous dissolution "illegal", making it invalid. This strategic move by the separatist leader was taken at a crucial moment, just as the two countries were on the verge of signing a comprehensive peace treaty brokered by international mediators.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and President Ilham Aliyev outlined three fundamental principles of peace – mutual recognition of Soviet borders, delimitation and opening  communications. Aliyev agreed to these conditions, renouncing territorial claims. However, Shahramanyan's unexpected turn puts an end to the progress achieved so far.

The timing of Shahramanyan's decision raises questions about his motives, threatening to undermine the positive dynamics of the peace talks. This step puts the Armenian community of Karabakh back on a destructive path, rejecting proposals for joint peaceful coexistence with Azerbaijan, which have been on the negotiating table for more than three decades.

Throughout the protracted Karabakh conflict, the separatists consistently ignored the proposals of both Yerevan and Baku, giving priority to the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh from Azerbaijan. This unyielding position, often used by Yerevan to maintain control over the occupied territories, eventually led to the 2020 war and the subsequent disintegration of the NKR.

The ongoing separatist activities of the self-proclaimed republic stationed in Armenia pose a threat to the peace process. While Pashinyan's government refrains from opposing the actions of the separatists in order to avoid internal political tensions, the Azerbaijani-Armenian settlement faces the risk of prolonged stagnation.

Unlike the period before the 2020 war, when Azerbaijan did not use a counter-strategy, this time Baku has a potential counterweight in the form of an organization of Western Azerbaijanis claiming a significant part of the territory of Armenia, which is called hysterical Western Azerbaijan in Baku. Both sides can use the factors of Karabakh Armenians and Western Azerbaijanis to hinder not only bilateral initiatives, but also the efforts of international mediators.

This complex geopolitical alignment seems to benefit both sides in different ways. Azerbaijan, which is in a state of uncertainty with the peace treaty, continues to strengthen its territorial sovereignty, while Armenia hopes for favorable future circumstances. The interaction of these opposing trends will determine the dynamics of the development of the South Caucasus in the coming year, creating problems for the fragile balance achieved during the recent negotiations.

Pre-election prevention

01.12.23: The Khatai Court of Baku authorized the arrest of Nargiz Absalyamova, a journalist of the online publication AbzasMedia, for 3 months on charges of smuggling by prior agreement with a group of persons (206.3.2) of the Criminal Code of Azerbaijan.

02.12.23: Khatai District Court of Baku sentenced an employee of the  Internet television channel Kanal-13 Rufat Muradli to 30 days of arrest. He was found guilty under Art. 535.1 (failure to comply with the lawful demands of the police) of the Code of Administrative Offences. This was reported by lawyer Nazim Musayev.

11.12.23: Ibrahim Humbatov (Ibrahim Gubadoglu), head of "Azerinfo.az website", has been detained. The Interior Ministry's press service reports that Gumbatov was detained on the basis of citizens' appeals. "The head of the website is accused of publishing materials discrediting individuals and extorting money from them for non-replication of kompromat. A measure of restraint in the form of arrest for four months has been chosen against him," the Interior Ministry said in a statement.

13.12.23:  Editor of the economic department, investigative journalist Hafiz Babaly was detained as part of a criminal case against employees of the Abzas Media publication.

15.12.23: The Narimanov District Court of Baku arrested Tofig Yagublu, a member of the “Musavat” party and the Coordinating National Council of Democratic Forces, for 4 months.

The pre-election wave of arrests…

Over the past month, many journalists, political and public activists have been arrested in the country. Among them, the director of the “AbzasMedia” publication Ulvi Hasanli, its editor-in-chief Sevinj Vagifgizy, the project manager of the “AbzasMedia” website Muhammad Kekalov, investigative journalist Hafiz Babaly, journalist Nargiz Absalamova, reporter Teymur Kerimov, an employee of a number of Internet TV channels, the presenter of Kanal 13 Rufat Muradli, known for their corruption investigations.

Along with journalists, Tofiq Yagublu, a member of the National Council and the Musavat Party, and Mohyeddin Orujev, a public activist, were also among those arrested last week.

Why are these pre-election arrests taking place?

Elman Fattah, an expert on international issues and a member of the Founding Board of the “Platform III of the Republic,” answers these and other questions from ASTNA.

Question: What is the reason for the recent arrests? What is behind them?

Answer:  Obviously, because the country has an authoritarian government. Authoritarian authorities are intolerant of alternative political views and critical media. They use the power of the state to destroy such structures, to silence individuals. And the main force of the authoritarian authorities is law enforcement agencies. With the help of arrests, the authorities seek to create an atmosphere of fear in society and, if possible, completely eliminate critical people.  And this creates a large army of political prisoners. There are hundreds of them in Azerbaijan now.  The latest wave of repression is a consequence of this kind of managerial thinking. Over the past few years, critical media in Azerbaijan have been trying to revive using the possibilities of new technologies. However, the Aliyev regime is very sensitive and immediately reacted to the revival attempt.

Question: In recent years of Azerbaijan's almost 30-year political history, arrests have usually occurred after elections, but now the opposite is happening. Now the arrests are taking place before the elections. Why?

Answer: Azerbaijani authoritarianism has gone through different stages - consultative authoritarianism, group authoritarianism, oligarchic authoritarianism and, since 2016, the authoritarianism of one person.  These transformations were constantly accompanied by a tightening trend.  Now it is already approaching its peak. As the regime tightens, its tolerance for critical thinking decreases. If earlier, until about 2010, arrests were usually made to suppress mass protests after elections, then since 2013 they have been used before elections. That is, they no longer have the patience to listen to criticism even during elections.

Question: What is the reason for such a sudden need for early elections?

Answer: You used the word "suddenly" very appropriately.  Because early elections must necessarily have a legitimate reason. If we give examples from the history of elections in Azerbaijan, then both in 1992 and in 1993 there were legitimate reasons for calling early presidential elections, and this was not a surprise to anyone. Ayaz Mutallibov's resignation in March 1992 became the legitimate reason for the presidential elections. And in 1993, the abolition of Elchibey's presidency required new elections. But neither the past nor the current snap presidential elections have a legitimate reason. The government itself does not voice any reason. Therefore, regarding the reasons for holding early elections, it is possible to build only conspiracy assumptions.

In my opinion, the consistent pressure of the West on Ilham Aliyev in connection with the signing of peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia can be voiced as an assumption. There is plenty of open information justifying this pressure. It is well known that the last visit of the US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs took place precisely in the context of peace negotiations. I believe that by making such a decision the day after the meeting with Mr. James O'Brien, Ilham Aliyev gets two opportunities to evade the pressure of the West seeking to sign peace. Due to the beginning of the election period, it is necessary to avoid signing a peace agreement until spring. And in the fall, the United States enters the election period.  And thus, in the worst-case scenario, he wins at least more than a year to abandon such an agreement.

* * *

Question: Can the Russia-West factor be present in what is happening?

Answer: I voiced my opinion about the elections above.  As for the political arrests, I can add that the arrests this time are mainly caused by the tendency to tighten authoritarian rule, as well as the fact that Ilham Aliyev is preparing to make his geopolitical choice in favor of an international authoritarian coalition. You see, the Russian-Ukrainian war is perceived by the collective West as a war between democracies and autocracies.  This war is intensifying the polarization in world politics. The policy of introducing a traditional balanced policy or establishing equally good relations with both sides, rapprochement with Moscow politically and with the West economically, has already become a thing of the past. Ilham Aliyev is forced to make a final choice, and the choice of the democratic front is impossible for him. Also, the latest wave of repression aims to drown out the voices that will presumably be heard when this choice becomes obvious.

Question: Why does the government treat so harshly, while the theses "There is no alternative to Ilham Aliyev" and "the reputation of the Supreme Commander who captured Karabakh is very high" are very often heard?

Answer: As already mentioned at the beginning, authoritarian regimes, as they strengthen, strengthen their foundations, as you say, eliminate alternatives, they become even more ruthless.  And Ilham Aliyev is no exception. Those who think that the image of the victorious president will encourage him to pursue a softer policy are people who do not understand the essence of authoritarianism.