Political monitoring

Yanuary summary

In a Yanuary  fraught with diplomatic disputes, aviation crises, and escalating regional tensions, Azerbaijan has found itself at the center of multiple controversies spanning foreign relations, internal governance, and national security.

Diplomatic Strains with Iran and the West. The Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Iran’s Charge d'Affaires, Seyyed Jafar Agayi Maryan, on January 1, lodging a protest over what it described as “insults” against Azerbaijan and President Ilham Aliyev. The move follows a series of verbal attacks from Iranian figures, further complicating the already tenuous relationship between Baku and Tehran. The rift between the two neighbors was underscored by U.S. Helsinki Commission Co-Chair Joe Wilson’s condemnation of Tehran’s rhetoric, as well as a call from the Norwegian Human Rights House Foundation for the release of jailed Azerbaijani election watchdog leader Anar Mammadli.

Azerbaijan’s relationship with the European Union also appeared to be on shaky ground. In a January 7 interview, President Aliyev signaled dim prospects for EU-Azerbaijan relations, citing Brussels’ unequivocal support for Armenia. The United States, too, was drawn into the diplomatic fray, with Aliyev expressing hope for renewed engagement under a new U.S. administration following Joe Biden’s departure. Meanwhile, Azerbaijani authorities rebuffed Washington’s concerns over the sentencing of opposition leader Bakhtiyar Hajiyev, whose ten-year prison term has been widely criticized by international human rights organizations.

Aviation Crises Raise Safety Concerns. Aviation safety emerged as a dominant concern after an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) Embraer 190/195 aircraft reportedly encountered radio interference while flying over Astrakhan, Russia, on January 1. The disruption came just days after a separate AZAL aircraft, en route to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in St. Petersburg, returned to Baku due to what were described as technical issues.

The most alarming development, however, was the revelation that two missiles from a Russian-made "Pantsir" system had been fired at an AZAL aircraft near Grozny. The claim, attributed to interrogations of military personnel and reported by the Russian Telegram channel ВЧК-ОГПУ, added further urgency to Azerbaijan’s calls for an international investigation.

Adding to the mystery surrounding Azerbaijani aviation incidents, President Aliyev met with the families of the crew members who perished in the AZAL crash near Kazakhstan’s Aktau Airport in December. While Kazakh officials have promised a preliminary report within 30 days, new reports indicate that the plane may have been hit by a missile strike, raising questions about Russian involvement.

Border Clashes and Escalating Military Posturing. As Azerbaijan and Armenia work toward a peace agreement, hostilities between the two countries have persisted. On January 5, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry accused Armenian forces of shelling its positions in the Lachin region, while President Aliyev later stated that Azerbaijan intends to seriously pursue the return of Azerbaijanis to their "historical lands" in Armenia.

The Armenian government, meanwhile, released proposals for peace that included mutual arms control and ceasefire monitoring, but Baku has shown little inclination to ease its rhetoric. In a January 7 interview, Aliyev described Armenia as a "fascist state" and warned that if the Armenian leadership did not dismantle what he termed “racist ideologies,” Azerbaijan would act unilaterally.

The Azerbaijani military’s growing regional cooperation was further underscored by Deputy Defense Minister Hikmet Mirzoyev’s visit to Turkey, where he met with high-ranking Turkish military officials. Meanwhile, Chief of General Staff Kerim Veliyev participated in a NATO meeting in Brussels, reflecting Azerbaijan’s delicate balancing act between its Western partnerships and its traditionally close ties with Russia.

Repression of Activists and Press Freedom Concerns. Azerbaijan’s domestic political climate has been increasingly marred by accusations of repression. On January 9, opposition activist Rail Abbasov was sentenced to 6.5 years in prison in a case his supporters described as politically motivated. His conviction follows a wave of detentions, including that of journalist Khanum Mustafayeva, who was reportedly banned from traveling abroad without explanation.

International watchdogs, including Reporters Without Borders and Human Rights Watch, have continued to condemn Azerbaijan’s crackdown on journalists. On January 10, a report from the International Partnership for Human Rights accused Azerbaijan of a decade-long pattern of disregarding the Council of Europe’s recommendations.

The growing international scrutiny did not prevent Azerbaijani authorities from intensifying their crackdown. On January 17, the investigation against Toplum TV journalists was expanded, with six additional charges added to their case. Meanwhile, another opposition figure, Jalal Javadov, was arrested on January 30, with activists alleging that the charges against him were fabricated in retaliation for his participation in protests.

Geopolitical Realignments and the Shadow of Russia. Russia has remained a dominant player in Azerbaijan’s regional maneuverings. On January 6, French President Emmanuel Macron accused Moscow of shifting its stance toward Azerbaijan at the expense of Armenia, a claim that reflects Yerevan’s growing frustration with its erstwhile ally.

Azerbaijan has simultaneously sought closer ties with Israel and the Gulf states. Aliyev’s January 27 meeting with Israeli Economic Forum co-founder Jonathan Mizner signaled Azerbaijan’s deepening economic relationship with Israel.

However, tensions with Moscow flared again on January 28, when Russia’s ambassador to Baku was summoned by Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry over alleged disinformation campaigns targeting Baku. The Russian Foreign Ministry responded by expressing “bewilderment” over what it characterized as anti-Russian media reports in Azerbaijan.

Chronicle of events

01.01.25: Charge d'Affaires of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Azerbaijan Seyyed Jafar Agayi Maryan was summoned to the Azerbaijani MFA on January 1. A protest was lodged against him over the insults made against Azerbaijan and President Ilham Aliyev.

01.01.25: Two missiles from the "Pantsir" system were fired at the AZAL aircraft near Grozny. This was known after the interrogation of the military, reports the telegram channel "ВЧК-ОГПУ».

02.01.25: Co-Chair of the US Helsinki Commission, Congressman Joe Wilson, condemned the offensive attacks by representatives of the Tehran regime against Azerbaijan and Turkey.

02.01.25: The Norwegian Human Rights House Foundation has called for the release of Anar Mammadli, head of the Election Monitoring and Democracy Studies Center, who has been arrested in Azerbaijan.

03.01.25: An Embraer 190/195 aircraft operated by Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) on the Baku-Kazan route experienced radio interference and GPRS disruptions while flying over Astrakhan on January 1, according to a source in aviation cited by Turan.

04.01.25: The Baku-1 plane of the President of Azerbaijan, which was heading to the informal CIS summit in St. Petersburg on December 25, returned to Baku after, according to a Turan source, it encountered technical problems in Russian airspace.

05.01.25: A preliminary report on the causes of the crash of AZAL aircraft in accordance with ICAO rules will be made public 30 days after the accident. This was announced by the Ministry of Transport of Kazakhstan on 5 January, reports Tengrinews.

05.01.25:  From 22.00 to 22.10 Armenian armed forces units from the direction of Dyg and Khanazakh villages of Goris region shelled the positions of the Azerbaijani army in the direction of Zabukh and Chagazur villages of Lachin region. This is stated in the press release of the Azerbaijani Defence Ministry.

06.01.25: Speaking at a conference of ambassadors, French President Emmanuel Macron said that Russia had changed its allied relations with Armenia and supported Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh. "Russia, having suddenly changed its foreign policy, supported Azerbaijan because for the first time Armenia had a decisive prime minister who did not give in," he noted. At the same time he acused Azerbaijan for interference into the situation in Caledonia.

06.01.25: According to a statement from the State Border Service, an attempt to smuggle drugs into Azerbaijan was prevented during an operational search. The seizure included 700 grams of opium, over 13,000 tablets of Pregabalin 150, and 600 tablets of Methadone 40. The exact location and time of the incident have not been disclosed.

06.01.25: President Aliyev Congratulates Azerbaijan's Orthodox Christian Community on Christmas

06.01.25: The trial in the case of Martin Ryan, a French citizen accused of espionage, began at the Baku Serious Crimes Court, presided over by Judge Elmin Rustamov. Also standing trial was Azerbaijani citizen Azad Mammadli, who is accused of high treason. At the start of the session, the judge announced that Ryan faces a prison sentence of 10 to 15 years under Article 276 (espionage), while Mammadli, charged under Article 274 (high treason) of the Criminal Code, could face a sentence ranging from 15 years to life imprisonment.

06.01.25: President Ilham Aliyev received family members of the dead crew of the AZAL passenger plane and injured flight attendants. He repeated his claims to the Russian side that the pilots were not warned about the danger in the airspace near the city of Grozny. He said a similar incident had occurred 10 days earlier in the same area and the AZAL plane had turned back. ‘Why was the flight crew not warned this time? Naturally, the investigation will show this,’ Aliyev noted. ‘The concealment of this event by Russian state agencies and references to absurd versions cause us both surprise, regret and quite justified anger. Innocent people died,’ Aliyev emphasised.

07.01.25: Azerbaijan is among the five countries in Europe with the highest number of arrested journalists. This is stated in the annual report of the International Federation of Journalists (IFJ).

07.01.25: The Brazilian Center for Investigation and Prevention of Aviation Accidents (Cenipa) announced the completion of the analysis of the black box from the Embraer plane that crashed in Kazakhstan on December 25, resulting in the deaths of 38 people.

07.01.25: Azerbaijan raised the issue of the return of Azerbaijanis to their historical lands in Armenia 10 years ago. However, until the problem of liberating the occupied territories was resolved, this topic was not actively pursued, the head of state, Ilham Aliyev,  said in an interview with local TV channels. “This was our legitimate desire, and now it is time to seriously address this issue,” he said, adding that the community of Western Azerbaijan had established contacts with international organizations, and this issue had already been brought to the international agenda.

07.01.25: Relations with Iran remain uncertain, and there have been no meetings with the new Iranian leader yet. Head of State Ilham Aliyev said this in an interview with local TV channels.

07.01.25: President Ilham Aliyev has said the prospects for Azerbaijan's relations with the European Union are dim.  ‘It is difficult to say how our relations with the European Commission will develop, but last year was a year full of disappointments. It was last year that the EU took Armenia's side unequivocally,’ Aliyev said in an interview with Azerbaijani TV channels.

07.01.25: President Ilham Aliyev has pinned his hopes on the activation of Azerbaijani-American relations after the change of head of state in the US.‘Trump comes to power with a completely new agenda, there were no problems in US-Azerbaijani relations in his first term. On the contrary, they were very positive and we managed to make progress in many directions,’ Aliyev said the day before in an interview with local TV channels. ‘The main mistake’ of the Biden administration was that it sacrificed “US-Azerbaijani relations to US-Armenian relations,” Aliyev said.

07.01.25:  Armenia has become a source of threat to the region and is essentially a fascist state. "Look at the racist and fascist statements of the first president of Armenia, who proudly describes ethnic cleansing and boasts of expelling Azerbaijanis from their historical lands. " "We are neighbors with such a fascist state, and the threat of fascism does not disappear. That's why fascism must be destroyed. Either the Armenian leadership will destroy him, or we will destroy him," Aliyev said in an interview with local TV channels.

08.01.25: Ilham Aliyev received the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Akbar Ahmadian. Ahmadian conveyed greetings from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian to Aliyev. Aliyev asked Ahmadian to convey his reciprocal greetings. The parties discussed issues of cooperation between Azerbaijan and Iran in political, economic, transport, energy, and other fields.

08.01.25: President Ilham Aliyev received Magdalena Grono, the European Union’s Special Representative for the South Caucasus, according to the Azerbaijani President's press service.  The importance of continuing contacts to further develop cooperation between Azerbaijan and the EU was emphasized during the meeting.

09.01.25: President of the Council of the European Union Antonio Costa called the head of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev. During the telephone conversation, Costa expressed condolences to Aliyev and the people of Azerbaijan in connection with the crash of the AZAL plane, the press service of the Azerbaijani president reported. The European Union supports Baku's position on a comprehensive investigation of this disaster, Costa emphasized.

09.01.25: The Baku Court of Serious Crimes completed the trial of activist Rail Abbasov, accused of fraud. In his last statement, Abbasov said that he was arrested on far-fetched and trumped-up charges for defending his friend, human rights defender Bakhtiyar Hajiyev, who was also unreasonably arrested. Abbasov cited numerous inconsistencies in his case as evidence of falsification of his case and asked the court to make a fair decision. However, the court sentenced Abbasov to 6.5 years of imprisonment.

09.01.25: Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) has indefinitely suspended flights on the Baku-Kazan-Baku route, citing repeated closures of airspace over Kazan caused by the implementation of the "Kovyor" plan, the company announced. The decision was made to ensure passenger safety amid ongoing disruptions in Kazan's airspace, AZAL’s press service stated.

09.01.25:  Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan published a set of proposals on his Facebook page aimed at establishing long-term peace in the region. Among them, he suggested that Azerbaijan should abandon mutual claims against Armenia, including in international courts. Other proposals include: refraining from using belligerent rhetoric, continuing the demarcation of borders, signing a peace agreement that is 90% ready, mutually implementing arms control, creating a joint mechanism to investigate violations of the ceasefire regime, and dissolving the OSCE Minsk Group.

10.01.25:   Azerbaijani economist Gubad Ibadoglu’s identification card remains deactivated, despite assurances from the Ministry of Internal Affairs that no deactivation had occurred. Ibadoglu reportedly attempted to use his ID to access ASAN, the country's electronic public service platform, following Friday's statement by an Interior Ministry representative. However, the system once again indicated that the FIN code associated with his ID card does not exist, raising questions about the status of his identification within the system.

10.01.25:  Jamil Hajiyev, a member of the National Council of Democratic Forces, who was detained in front of the Baku Court of Grave Crimes, was released on Friday evening after being given a verbal warning. He told Turan that after being detained, he was taken to the Nasimi district police department.‘At the police station I was handcuffed, physical and moral pressures was exerted on me. On the ground floor of the building, they started beating me. They applied blows all over my body. Then I was taken up to the first floor and the beatings were continued there. Then I was taken to the office of the head of the department, where I was threatened. And finally, after a verbal warning, I was released,’ Hajiyev said.

10.01.25:   By the decree of the head of state  a "National Data" system is being established in Azerbaijan. The new system aims to ensure efficiency and transparency through the use of digital technologies by central and local executive authorities, state legal entities with controlling shares, public legal entities, other budgetary organizations, as well as local self-government bodies.

10.01.25:  By a decree of the head of state dated, Azerbaijan has established an information system called "Digital Ecology." The new system integrates the activities of the Ministry of Ecology through the use of digital technologies with other individuals and legal entities. The Ministry of Digital Development and Transport, in collaboration with the Ministry of Ecology, has been tasked with taking measures to organize the new system, ensure the placement of open data, and facilitate its effective use.

10.01.25:  In 2024, 514 people were detained for violating the state border of Azerbaijan; 10,500 people were detained for violating the border regime, and 3,726 wanted persons were detained. This was reported at the reporting meeting on the results of activity of the State Border Service of Azerbaijan in 2024.

10.01.25:   Before his arrest, human rights defender Rufat Safarov was pressurised to give up an award of the US State Department. This is stated in Safarov's appeal, published on the account of the human rights defender in Facebook. According to the activist, he was demanded to do it publicly. As a reminder, Rufat Safarov was detained on 3 December. He was charged under three Articles of the Criminal Code - 178.3.2 (fraud committed with large-scale damage), 221.1 (hooliganism) and 127.2.3 (deliberate infliction of less serious harm to health, in a generally dangerous way or out of hooliganism). The next day the court arrested him for four months.

10.01.25:  Alisahib Kerimov, an activist of the Khazar district branch of the Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan (PFPA), was detained at the Nizami metro station. By the decision of the Yasamal District Court, he was sentenced to 30 days of administrative arrest for "disobeying the police."

11.01.25:  Independent journalist Khanum Mustafayeva was unable to leave. At the Baku airport, she was told that the ban was imposed by the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Azerbaijan. However, the reasons for restricting the journalist's rights were not explained to her.

13.01.25:  The trial  in the case of public activist Nijat Ibrahim continued in the Baku Serious Crimes  Court under the chairmanship of Judge Aygun Gurbanova. The trial was suspended after Ibrahim, in protest against the illegal arrest, began banging his head against the "aquarium cage", trying to commit suicide.

13.01.25:  The International Committee of Concerned Scholars (ICS) has appealed to the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, requesting his assistance in securing the release of the arrested researcher, Igbal Abilov. The ICS expressed concern that Abilov's arrest "may be related to his research on ethnic minorities in Azerbaijan, conducted in collaboration with scholars from Armenia."

13.01.25:  The Baku Court for Serious Crimes sentenced public activist Bakhtiyar Hajiyev to 10 years of imprisonment. The court also ruled to confiscate his flat and money in his bank accounts and ban him from educational work for 1 year after his release. Hajiyev called the verdict politically motivated. All the charges brought against him were legally refuted. As for the charges of hooliganism, they were fabricated on the basis of a complaint by Ulviya Alovlu, who fulfilled the orders of ‘her handlers in power’.

13.01.25:  Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has arrived on a working visit to the UAE, the website of the head of state reports. The visit is carried out at the invitation of UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Aliyev participated in the Abu Dhabi Sustainable Development Week 2025. The summit, which brought together global leaders, politicians, and industry pioneers, provided a platform for discussions on addressing the most pressing issues of our time.

13.01.25:  Ronen Kraus, director of the Eurasian department of the Israeli Foreign Ministry, has been appointed as the Jewish state's new Ambassador to Azerbaijan. 

14.01.25:  The United States was deeply disappointed in the recent judgement against Bakhtiyar Hajiyev. We continue to urge Azerbaijan to adhere to its international obligations and commitments and to release those unjustly detained.

14.01.25:  The black boxes from the AZAL aircraft have been returned to Kazakhstan from Brazil and handed over to the investigation commission for analysis of the aviation accident that occurred near Aktau Airport on December 25, Kazakhstan's General Prosecutor's Office reported.

14.01.25:  Baku Court for Serious Crimes completed the trial of Afiaddin Mammadov, head of the alternative trade union confederation ‘Workers’ Platform’. The court sentenced him to 8 years of imprisonment. Zibeyda Sadygova, the defence lawyer, spoke before the trial, stating that none of the charges against the activist were substantiated by evidence.

15.01.25:  The State Agency for Preschool and General Education announced that the use of smartphones, smartwatches, and tablets during the school day is prohibited, except in special cases. A "special case" refers to the lesson topic and the teacher's requirements for "better mastering the subject."

15.01.25:  In Kalbajar region, a soldier of the Ministry of Defense, Bakhshaliyev Adil Bakhshali oglu, committed suicide by firing a weapon.

15.01.25:  The Tbilisi Court of Appeals rejected the appeal of Afghan Sadigov, the founder of the Azel TV website, who had protested his extradition to Azerbaijan.

15.01.25:  Two people were arrested in Baku for plotting a terrorist attack against the local Jewish community,  Israeli media reporting citing the Azerbaijani State Security Service. The target of the assassination was one of the leaders of the local Jewish community.

15.01.25:  The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry has rejected the criticism of the US Embassy over the sentence of activist Bakhtiyar Hajiyev to 10 years imprisonment.

15.01.25:  The International Partnership for Human Rights (IPHR) and the Campaign to End Repression in Azerbaijan have released a report entitled "Azerbaijan's Challenge: A Decade of Disrespect for the Council of Europe." The 22-page report highlights the facts of Azerbaijan's disregard for the Council of Europe.

15.01.25:  Russia and Azerbaijan can resolve any issues, including in the context of the Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) plane crash near the Kazakh city of Aktau, Moscow appreciates Baku's support for Russia's participation in the investigation. This was stated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at a press conference following the results of the Foreign Ministry's activities in 2024.

15.01.25:  The international organization "Women Press Freedom" has condemned the travel ban imposed on journalist Khanum Mustafayeva in Azerbaijan

15.01.25:  The year 2024 was marked by ‘increased repression and police brutality’ in Azerbaijan. This is stated in the annual report on the human rights situation in Azerbaijan by the human rights organisation ‘Political Prisoners Monitoring Centre’.

16.01.25:  During the 11th meeting of the border delimitation commissions between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the directions for the delimitation process were determined, the State Commission of Azerbaijan on Border Delimitation and Demarcation with Armenia reported.

16.01.25:   On July 1, 2024, USAID's activities in Azerbaijan were officially terminated, Azerbaijan's Foreign Minister, Jeyhun Bayramov,  announced during today's press conference. "It is time to end USAID's activities in Azerbaijan. During negotiations, we saw that the United States does not take Azerbaijan's interests into account, and instead seeks to act in its own interests by dictating terms. The continued presence and representation of USAID in Azerbaijan is no longer necessary, and it is time to completely terminate its activities," the minister said.

16.01.25:  Azerbaijan and Georgia have always been advocates of peace and stability in the region, said Georgia's Foreign Minister Maka Bochorishvili during a joint press conference with Azerbaijan's Foreign Minister, Jeyhun Bayramov.

16.01.25:  PACE co-rapporteur on monitoring Azerbaijan Lise Kristoffersen (Norway) and the general rapporteur on political prisoners Thorhildur Sunna Evarsdottir (Iceland) have expressed their deep concern over the sentencing of prominent Azerbaijani activist Bakhtiyar Hajiyev.

16.01.25:  In order to protect the health of young soldiers, a temporary restriction on visiting military units has been introduced due to a possible increase in the incidence of respiratory viral infections.

16.01.25:  Chief of General Staff of the Azerbaijani Army Kerim Veliyev attended the meeting of the NATO Military Committee in Brussels in the format of Chiefs of General Staff of the Alliance member states.

16.01.25:  Extradition of the head of Azel TV website Afgan Sadygov from Georgia to Azerbaijan has been suspended for a week by the European Court of Human Rights. 

16.01.25:  The international human rights organization Human Rights Watch (HRW) published an annual report on the human rights situation in the world in 2024, noting the intensification of repression in Azerbaijan.

17.01.25:  The presidents of Russia and Iran have agreed on a gas pipeline route through Azerbaijan. At a press conference following talks with his Iranian counterpart Masoud Peseshkian, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that a gas pipeline construction project between the two countries is in progress.

17.01.25:  The Khatai District Court has chosen a preventive measure against journalist Farid Ismailov in the form of arrest for a period of 2 months and 20 days in the Toplum TV case.

17.01.25:  Ilham Aliyev congratulated Irakli Kobakhidze on the victory of the Georgian Dream party in the elections and wished him continued success. "The victory of your party is of particular significance for the entire South Caucasus, making it a more stable region, and we rejoice in this victory as your friends and brothers. We wish your government new successes in its work," said Aliyev during a joint briefing following talks and the signing of bilateral documents.

17.01.25:  The preliminary investigation in the case of the Toplum TV publication (journalists and activists) is coming to an end. As a result of the investigation, the charges against the defendants have been aggravated. Previously, they were accused only under Article 206.3.2 of the Azerbaijani Criminal Code (smuggling by prior agreement), but now they face additional charges under six more articles:

Article 162-1 (Hiring workers without a labor contract);5

Article 192.3.2 (Illegal entrepreneurship with significant income);

Article 193-1.3.1 (Money laundering obtained by criminal means by an organized group);

Article 193-1.3.2 (The same actions committed on a large scale);

Article 206.4 (Smuggling by an organized group);

Article 213.2.1 (Tax evasion by an organized group).

These new charges echo the accusations against the journalists from Abzas Media.

17.01.25:  Georgia offers a trilateral cooperation initiative involving all three countries of the South Caucasus. This was stated by Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze in Baku at the opening of the meeting of the intergovernmental commission on economic cooperation between Georgia and Azerbaijan.

17.01.25:  A delegation of the Georgian government headed by Irakli Kobakhidze arrived in Azerbaijan. During the visit, a meeting of the intergovernmental Georgian-Azerbaijani commission for economic cooperation was held with the participation of members of the government of the two countries and a meeting with President Ilham Aliyev.

17.01.25:  Trials of Karabakh separatist leaders have begun in Baku. At the same time, the trial of former "minister of State" Ruben Vardanyan will take place separately in the building of the Baku Judicial Complex in the village of Govsan.

18.01.25:  We look forward to continuing our dialogue with the government of Azerbaijan to confirm our partnership, which has been going on for more than 30 years, said Erin Robertson, official representative of the US Embassy in Baku, commenting on the statement by Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov about the impossibility of further cooperation with USAID.

18.01.25:  Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev received Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who is on a visit to Baku. They exchanged views on the prospects of bilateral relations and other issues of mutual interest.

19.01.25:  By the decision of the Shirvan City Court, Musavat Party activist Alikram Khurshidov has been administratively arrested for 10 days. This was stated in a statement by the Musavat Party. The party considers Khurshidov's arrest to be unfounded and politically motivated.

19.01.25:  9 people were arrested in connection with the incident in Imishli after an accident with the death of children. A group of people has been arrested for committing hooligan acts in a public place in the Imishli district, the Azerbaijani Interior Ministry said in a statement.

20.01.25:  Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has arrived in Switzerland on a working visit to participate in the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos.

20.01.25:  Azerbaijani citizen Farid Safarli has been released from an Iranian prison and returned to his homeland. This is stated in a joint statement issued  by the State Security Service (SSS) and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani citizen Farid Safarli, who studied in Germany, disappeared in Iran in March 2023, where he came to meet with his friend, with whom he studied together. Later, the Iranian authorities confirmed his arrest on charges of espionage.

20.01.25:  The speaker of the Platform III of the Republic (ResPlatforma), Akif Gurbanov, who was arrested in the Toplum TV case, has addressed the country's President Ilham Aliyev. Gurbanov is concerned about the seizure of his movable and immovable property, acquired from known sources before the politician's arrest.

20.01.25:  Azerbaijan celebrates the 35th anniversary of Black January.

01/20.25: The head of the European Union delegation to Azerbaijan, Peter Michalko, and the EU ambassadors visited the Alley of Martyrs in Baku on January 19 to pay tribute to the victims of "Black January" on the 35th anniversary of the tragic events.

21.01.25:  As part of his participation in the Davos Economic Forum, the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev met with the President of the State of Israel Isaac Herzog. The sides exchanged views on issues of mutual interest.

21.01.25:  Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met with Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany Olaf Scholz within the framework of the Davos Economic Forum. During the conversation, an exchange of views took place on bilateral relations, as well as prospects for the development of cooperation between Azerbaijan and the European Union. Other issues of mutual interest were discussed.

21.01.25:  Members of the opposition were detained by the police for critical posts on social networks and released after a preventive conversation.

21.01.25:  The Speaker of the Milli Majlis, Sahiba Gafarova, arrived in Italy on an official visit, as reported by the press service of the Azerbaijani Parliament. During the visit, Gafarova will hold a series of bilateral meetings aimed at strengthening parliamentary cooperation between Azerbaijan and Italy.

21.01.25:  Reporters Without Borders called for the immediate release of Sevinj Vagifgiza and her colleagues who are being investigated in the Abzas Media case.

21.01.25:  Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev sent a congratulatory message to Donald Trump on assuming the office of the US President.

21.01.25:  During a meeting in Tehran, Iranian President Masoud Peseshkian and Azerbaijani Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Mustafayev discussed strengthening bilateral economic relations.

22.01.25:  The Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan, Jeyhun Bayramov, and the Foreign Secretary of the United Kingdom, David Lammy, held a telephone conversation. During the conversation, they discussed the prospects for cooperation between the two countries, the current regional situation, and the ongoing situation surrounding the normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. This was reported by the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

22.01.25:  Presidents of Azerbaijan and Ukraine met at the Economic Forum in Davos. The press service of the Azerbaijani President informs that Aliyev and Zelensky discussed the development of bilateral relations in politics, economy, energy and humanitarian spheres, as well as regional security issues. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky called for increased pressure on Russia after the crash of the Embraer 190 aircraft with the participation of Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) near Aktau, Kazakhstan.

22.01.25:  International NGOs have called on PACE not to restore the powers of the Azerbaijani delegation.

22.01.25:  The New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) has condemned the decision of the Azerbaijani authorities to bring six new charges against Toplum TV journalists and the arrest of another reporter of this publication.

23.01.25:  The Deputy Commander of the Azerbaijani Ground Forces, Ilgar Latifov, met with a Pakistani delegation headed by the Director General of Military Operations, Abdullah Kashif.  The parties discussed the state and prospects for the development of military cooperation between Azerbaijan and Pakistan, as well as the importance of increasing the intensity of joint exercises. As a result, the "Instruction on conducting staff negotiations between the Ground Forces of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces and the Ground Forces of the Pakistan Army" was signed.

23.01.25:  Hilal Mammadov, a member of the Board of the Public Council of Talysh of Azerbaijan (OSTA), was interrogated by the State Security Service (SGB) as a witness in the case of researcher Igbal Abilov, who is accused of treason. As reported by Turan, Mammadov was questioned about Abilov's activities, scientific works, and publications. He expressed confidence in Abilov's innocence. "Such prominent representatives of Azerbaijan's intelligentsia should not be in prison, but should be free to continue their scientific research," Mammadov added.

22.01.25:  On 22 January, the Ganja Court for Serious Crimes sentenced Arshad Ibragimov, founder of the website 'dunyaninsesi.az', to 8 years of imprisonment, finding him guilty of extortion by threats.  According to his relatives, Ibragimov suffered for his publications about police iniquities. He was arrested after he refused to remove the material. Lawyer Zabil Gahramanov also claimed that Ibragimov did not commit any crime imputed to him.

23.01.25:  On 20 January border guards of Lankaran border guard detachment prevented another attempt to smuggle a large consignment of drugs from Iran. The State Border Service of Azerbaijan informs that border guards found more than 77 kg of marijuana, 3 kg of heroin, 1,000 tablets of methadone M-40 and other drugs.

23.01.25:   President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev  issued a decree amending the list of classified information approved by a 2005 presidential decree. The changes correspond to the amendments to the country's laws "On Accounting" and "On State Secrets", adopted by Parliament on December 22, 2023. This decree is a continuation of recent legislative changes aimed at improving the management and protection of confidential information related to the defense and strategic industries of Azerbaijan.

24.01.25:  Azerbaijan's private broadcaster Baku TV aired a report  accusing the "Russian House" in Baku of engaging in anti-Azerbaijani espionage activities under the guise of cultural and humanitarian work. The report, citing "trusted sources" without disclosing details, alleged that the Russian cultural center is fostering inter-ethnic discord and operating as a hub for intelligence activities.

24.01.25:  The human rights situation in Azerbaijan in 2024 was characterized by an increase in repression against journalists, activists, and religious groups, the annual report of the NGO "Line of Defense.

24.01.25:   Azerbaijan’s Deputy Minister of Defense, Commander of the Land Forces, Colonel General Hikmat Mirzayev, arrived on an official visit to Türkiye. According to the Ministry of Defense's statement, the Azerbaijani delegation was received by the Commander of the Turkish Land Forces, Army General Selçuk Bayraktaroglu. The meeting focused on the contributions of both countries to regional security and possible prospects for its development.

24.01.25:  Azerbaijani Ambassador to Tehran Ali Alizadeh was invited to the Iranian Foreign Ministry, where he met with Assistant Minister and Director General of the Eurasia Directorate Mojtaba Demirci. As reported by the MEHR news agency, Demirci touched upon "negative actions by some circles and figures against a number of Iranian students studying in Azerbaijan. He called it harmful to relations between the two nations, protested to the Iranian side and called for the punishment of the initiators of such actions."  16 Iranian students were deported from Azerbaijan. It turned out that they were involved in cooperation by the Iranian special services, who instructed them to recruit individual Azerbaijani citizens, according to pro-government media in Baku.

24.01.25:  On January 23, the fourth round of political consultations between the foreign ministries of the two countries was held in Islamabad.The sides exchanged views on cooperation in political, economic, educational, cultural, energy, and other areas. The parties  discussedissues of cooperation at international platforms, regional issues, and other topics of mutual interest were also discussed. On January 24, E. Mammadov participated and delivered a speech at the 8th meeting of the Azerbaijan-Pakistan Joint Commission.

24.01.25:  Sevinj Vagifgyzy, editor of ‘Abzas Media’, who is detained in Baku pre-trial detention centre-1, has reported physical pressures and discrimination against fellow journalists by the staff.

24.01.25:  The transcripts of the pilots' negotiations, previously published by the Russian portal Baza, differ from the materials of the "black boxes" of the AZAL plane crash in Aktau on December 25. This was announced on January 24 by Deputy Prime Minister of Kazakhstan Kanat Bozumbayev. "There is a big difference from the contents of black boxes. Wait for official sources," he said at a press conference. He did not explain exactly what these differences were.

24.01.25:  French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot  accused Azerbaijan of attempting to destabilize New Caledonia and other French overseas territories. In a statement on social media platform X, Barrot stated, "The 'Baku group' has once again sought to destabilize our national political life in New Caledonia. These futile attempts by Azerbaijan in our overseas territories are unacceptable and must stop immediately."

25.01.25:  Deputy Defense Minister of Azerbaijan and Commander of the Ground Forces, Colonel General Hikmet Mirzoyev, who is on an official visit to Turkey, met with the Chief of the General Staff of the Turkish Armed Forces, General Metin Gürak. According to the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan, both parties expressed satisfaction with the current state of bilateral military cooperation and discussed its contribution to regional security. During the meeting, there was an extensive exchange of views on the prospects for collaboration in military, military-technical, military-educational, and other areas, as well as on other topics of mutual interest.

25.01.25:  Seyyed Jafar Aghaei Marian, Charge d'Affaires of the Iranian Embassy in Azerbaijan, was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry said in a report circulated on January 25. “During the meeting, he was protested against the anti-Azerbaijani campaign openly carried out in Iranian media close to government circles, as well as against the Azerbaijani leadership,” the press release further noted.

25.01.25:   Russian investigators have confirmed that the crash of flight 8243, operated by Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL), was the result of a missile strike, according to new findings from sources close to the investigation, as reported by the Azerbaijani pro-government outlet AnewZ. The missile, identified as a Pantsir-S1 air defense system, was reportedly launched from Russian territory, with the system having been transferred to Russia from Syria. Additionally, sources suggest that electronic warfare systems were used to disrupt the plane's control systems before the fatal crash.

27.01.25:   President Ilham Aliyev has signed a decree on increasing the monthly salary of military personnel of all law enforcement agencies by 10%.

27.01.25:   Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met with Jonathan Mizner, co-founder and board member of the Israeli Economic Forum. The parties exchanged views on the prospects of Azerbaijani-Israeli and Azerbaijani-American relations.

27.01.25:   Azerbaijani Deputy Defence Minister Colonel-General Hikmet Mirzoyev has arrived in the border settlement of Kilis (Turkey's border with Syria). The Turkish Defence Ministry reported that the Azerbaijani military took part in a meeting with the Command of the Turkish Special Forces.

27.01.25:   'Amnesty International' has released a new report on Azerbaijan, where it expressed concern about the deteriorating human rights situation in the country. ‘Unjustified restrictions on the rights to freedom of expression, association and peaceful assembly, repressions of human rights defenders and journalists,’ the report says. Violation of the right to fair trial and abuse of justice for political purposes is widespread.

27.01.25:   In 2024, 41 people became victims of mine and ammunition explosions in Azerbaijan.This was reported at the board of the General Prosecutor's Office of Azerbaijan, head of the department Kyamran Aliyev.  According to him, last year 5 people died as a result of mine explosions, 36 others were injured to various degrees. A total of 382 people have become victims of mines in Azerbaijan since the end of the 44-day war in 2020, including 70 killed, 312 injured in various degrees.

27.01.25:   Xavier Bettel, Acting Chairman of the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Luxembourg, Chairman of the Committee of Ministers, expressed satisfaction with the resumption of cooperation with Azerbaijan within the framework of the Council of Europe action plan.   "The Committee of Ministers welcomes the resumption of cooperation within the framework of the Action Plan for Azerbaijan, which was suspended after the Assembly's decision not to recognize the powers of the Azerbaijani delegation," he said, speaking at the PACE session in Strasbourg. "We must remain a platform for dialogue, and we hope that the Assembly and the Azerbaijani parliamentary delegations will soon find common ground for resuming relations," Bettel added.

27.01.25:   Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin invited Azerbaijani Ambassador Rahman Mustafayev to the Russian Foreign Ministry. The Russian Foreign Ministry reports that Galuzin stressed the importance of building relations between Russia and Azerbaijan "in the spirit of strategic partnership and alliance on the basis of the Declaration signed at the highest level on 22 February 2022."  "In this regard, bewilderment was expressed over a series of recent anti-Russian publications in the Azerbaijani media, as well as with regard to the disinformation campaign against the Russian House in Baku. Absolute groundlessness of the accusations  was noted," - reads the press release.

28.01.25:   Russian Ambassador to Azerbaijan Mikhail Yevdokimov was invited to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. "During the meeting it was noted that publications in the Russian press, as well as reports of disinformation nature of some official circles of Russia against our country, create misunderstanding and contradict the content and spirit of the Declaration on Allied Co-operation between Azerbaijan and Russia," the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry press release said.

28.01.25:   Armenia should ensure unhindered passage along the Zangezur corridor, President Ilham Aliyev said at a meeting on transport.

28.01.25:   The PACE winter session in Strasbourg hosted a debate on the situation in the member states in 2024.  As a result, resolution No. 2580 was adopted, which states that PACE highly appreciates the work of the Monitoring Committee, which monitors the situation of 14 countries. The document expresses concern about the retreat from democracy and human rights violations in a number of countries, including Azerbaijan and Georgia. PACE called on the Azerbaijani authorities to immediately lift this ban and begin a constructive dialogue with the Council of Europe bodies on all outstanding issues.

28.01.25:   The head of “Rossotrudnichestvo” (the Russian Federation's state agency for humanitarian relations) Evgeny Primakov has threatened to file a lawsuit against the Azerbaijani internet TV channel Baku.tv. "I have reviewed the disgusting report - a standup by some girl with the Baku.tv label, filmed right at the entrance to our cultural center in Azerbaijan, in Baku, in front of the “Russian House” sign. In the report, the girl shamelessly lies, claiming that this is a nest of spies and a lair of separatists.

29.01.25:    Municipal elections in Azerbaijan took place against the backdrop of low voter turnout and significant controversy. Voters cast their ballots between 8 a.m. and 7 p.m., with the Central Election Commission (CEC) reporting a smooth process. However, independent observers and opposition representatives voiced concerns over the transparency and inclusiveness of the elections.

29.01.25:   Moscow has noted good progress on the issue of delimitation and demarcation of the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk told journalists on Wednesday. Russia welcomes the agreements between Yerevan and Baku to begin the delimitation and demarcation process, starting from the point where the borders of the two countries meet with Georgia, moving southward.

29.01.25:   Polad Aslanov, the head of the xeberman.com website serving his sentence at prison No. 15, reported threats from the prison authorities after he exposed violations of prisoners' rights in the prison.

29.01.25:   Azerbaijani Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov met with a Saudi military delegation led by Chief of the General Staff Fayyad bin Hamed Al-Ruwaili in Baku. On the same day, members of the Saudi delegation held a separate meeting with Chief of the General Staff of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces Kerim Veliyev.During the meetings, the sides exchanged views on the expansion of bilateral military cooperation.

29.01.25:   Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov has arrived in Ankara on a working visit to participate in the 2nd trilateral meeting of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs, Economy/Trade and Transport of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Uzbekistan.

30.01.25:   Public activist Jalal Javadov was administratively arrested for 30 days. This decision was made by the Nasimi District Court of Baku, finding him guilty under Article 206 (illegal consumption of manufacturing, purchasing, storing, transporting or sending drugs not for sale in quantities necessary for personal consumption) of the Code of Administrative Offenses. Activists believe that Javadov was detained in connection with his protest action on January 29 at the municipal elections.

30.01.25:   Azerbaijan's Minister of Defense, Zakir Hasanov, met with the Commander-in-Chief of Bahrain’s Defense Forces, Khalifa bin Ahmed Al Khalifa. During the meeting,  the parties exchanged views on the current state and prospects for expanding cooperation in military and military-educational fields, as well as on regional security issues.

30.01.25:   Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has extended condolences to U.S. President Donald Trump following a midair collision between a regional passenger aircraft and a military helicopter near Washington.

30.01.25:   A parallel event dedicated to the human rights crisis in Azerbaijan was held in Strasbourg as part of the PACE winter session. Organized by the Institute for Freedom and Security of Reporters and PACE deputy Laura Castelfort, the hearing condemned the repression in a country where, according to participants, there are more than 331 political prisoners. The speakers criticized Baku's refusal to participate in the PACE session and allow deputies, as well as ignoring the decisions of the Council of Europe. There was an increase in pressure on independent media, NGOs and activists. PACE Co-Rapporteur on Azerbaijan Liz Kristoffersen stressed the need for legislative reforms and suggested reviewing the organization's membership system, dividing countries into complying and violating obligations.

31.01.25:   Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said at a press conference that Yerevan agrees with the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group if Azerbaijan sincerely strives for peace. However, he stressed that Armenia fears new territorial claims from Baku, referring to the rhetoric about "Western Azerbaijan." Pashinyan rejected the demand to change the constitution of Armenia, noting that it does not contain territorial claims to the neighboring country. He also confirmed that the Armenian army will continue to ensure the security of the country, but the return of disputed territories should take place peacefully through the delimitation of borders based on the Almaty Declaration.

31.01.25:   The Tbilisi City Court extended the arrest of the founder of the Azerbaijani website Azel TV, Afghan Sadigov, for three months. According to his wife, Sadygov and his lawyer found out about the meeting at the last moment. The court rejected the defense's request to transfer Sadigov to house arrest or bail out Georgian journalists. At the same time, the European Court of Human Rights banned Sadigov's extradition to Azerbaijan pending a final decision on the case.

31.01.25:   Marked the 141st anniversary of the birth of Mammad Emin Rasulzade, one of the founders of the People's Republic of Azerbaijan. On this day, activists of the Musavat party, the Popular Front of Azerbaijan and the National Council of Democratic Forces visited his monument in the village of Novkhany. Opposition leaders noted Rasulzade's contribution to the struggle for freedom and independence of Azerbaijan, stressing that his ideas remain relevant. At the same time, they criticized the Soviet and current authorities for trying to erase his legacy. However, the inability of the opposition to organize a joint event in his honor indicates the weakness of the protest movement.

31.01.25:   Azerbaijan's Commissioner for Human Rights Sabina Aliyeva has sent a letter to HRW Executive Director Tirana Hassan, expressing disagreement with the organization's report on the human rights situation in the country. She accused HRW of bias, using questionable sources and ignoring Azerbaijan's achievements, including successes at COP29. Alieva also pointed out that the problems related to the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, including the danger of mines and the situation with internally displaced persons, were ignored. The HRW report, published on January 16, noted increased repression, arrests of journalists and human rights defenders, as well as the lack of free elections and cases of torture of prisoners.

31.01.25:   Religious activist Elvin Zeynalov, who lives in Mashtaga village, was detained around noon in front of a store near his own house by plainclothes men. According to his relatives, in the late afternoon, Zeynalov was brought home by men in black and searched. They took Zeynalov's trousers from the closet, put marijuana in his pocket, then "seized" drugs and filmed this video and then took the activist away again.

The point of reference

01.01.25: Two missiles from the "Pantsir" system were fired at the AZAL aircraft near Grozny. This was known after the interrogation of the military, reports the telegram channel "ВЧК-ОГПУ».

03.01.25: An Embraer 190/195 aircraft operated by Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) on the Baku-Kazan route experienced radio interference and GPRS disruptions while flying over Astrakhan on January 1, according to a source in aviation cited by Turan.

04.01.25: The Baku-1 plane of the President of Azerbaijan, which was heading to the informal CIS summit in St. Petersburg on December 25, returned to Baku after, according to a Turan source, it encountered technical problems in Russian airspace.

06.01.25: President Ilham Aliyev received family members of the dead crew of the AZAL passenger plane and injured flight attendants. He repeated his claims to the Russian side that the pilots were not warned about the danger in the airspace near the city of Grozny. He said a similar incident had occurred 10 days earlier in the same area and the AZAL plane had turned back. ‘Why was the flight crew not warned this time? Naturally, the investigation will show this,’ Aliyev noted. ‘The concealment of this event by Russian state agencies and references to absurd versions cause us both surprise, regret and quite justified anger. Innocent people died,’ Aliyev emphasised.

Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan: Rising Tensions with Russia and Regional Consequences

Tensions between Russia and several former Soviet republics have reached a boiling point, with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan increasingly diverging from Moscow’s leadership. Over recent weeks, the three countries have openly criticized Russian officials' actions, signaling a shift in regional dynamics. These developments, triggered by incidents related to flight safety in Azerbaijan, internal political struggles in Kazakhstan, and an assassination plot in Uzbekistan, are reshaping strategic calculations in Central Asia and the South Caucasus. The repercussions of these crises are likely to have far-reaching implications for both Russia and its neighbors.

Azerbaijan Suspends Flights to Russia – Embraer 190 Scandal

A scandal erupted in Azerbaijan following the tragic downing of an "Azerbaijan Airlines" (AZAL) plane by Russian air defenses on December 25, 2024. In an exclusive interview with state television on December 29, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev blamed Russia, accusing its electronic warfare systems of causing the loss of control over the aircraft. The Embraer 190, en route from Baku to Grozny, was reportedly disrupted by Russian electronic warfare systems, rendering it uncontrollable before ground fire caused further damage.

Aliyev’s sharp condemnation of Russia marked a serious diplomatic rift, as Azerbaijan quickly dismissed Russia’s initial explanations — ranging from a bird collision to a gas cylinder explosion — as insufficient. Insiders revealed that the Azerbaijani presidential aircraft "Baku-1," headed to an informal CIS summit in St. Petersburg on the same day, returned to Baku due to technical issues in Russian airspace.

In response to the incident, Azerbaijan suspended all flights to several Russian cities, including Mineralnye Vody and Sochi, citing aviation risks and security concerns. The plane crash, which resulted in 38 passenger and three crew fatalities, has escalated bilateral tensions, with Azerbaijan demanding formal apologies, acknowledgment of responsibility, and compensation for the victims' families. Diplomatic relations remain strained, with Azerbaijan emphasizing the importance of an impartial investigation led by international experts. As both countries await the investigation’s results, the future of civil aviation ties remains uncertain.

Kazakhstan's Tensions with Russia and Nazarbayev Scandal

In Kazakhstan, on January 3, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev criticized his predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbayev, in an interview with the publication Ana Tili (Native Language), effectively blaming him for inciting mass unrest in January 2020. Tokayev expressed frustration over clandestine dealings involving Russian President Vladimir Putin and Nazarbayev, which reportedly undermined Kazakhstan's sovereignty. Reports of secret cooperation between Putin and Nazarbayev, who met twice last year, have raised concerns in Kazakhstan.

Tokayev, navigating a delicate political transition, views these backdoor negotiations as a threat to his authority and efforts to strengthen Kazakhstan’s independence from Russian influence. The country faces the challenge of balancing strong ties with Russia while asserting its sovereignty in a region still heavily influenced by Moscow. Kazakhstan’s growing dissatisfaction with Russian interference underscores the tension between leaders striving to modernize their nations and Russia’s insistence on maintaining dominance in Central Asia.

Uzbekistan and the Failed Assassination Plot: Regional Shockwaves

Uzbekistan also found itself at the center of political turmoil following an attempted assassination of Komil Allamjonov, the former press secretary to President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. The October 2024 attack, targeting Allamjonov’s vehicle, left him unharmed but revealed broader geopolitical tensions. The plot was linked to Russian Chechen militants Bislan Rasaev and Shamil Temirkhanov, prompting Uzbekistan's Prosecutor General to issue international arrest warrants against them.

The revelation came shortly after Mirziyoyev returned from a CIS informal summit in St. Petersburg and a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council. Allegations of Russian involvement have strained Uzbekistan-Russia relations, as the suspects reportedly entered Uzbekistan with fake documents connected to attacks on critics of Chechnya's Ramzan Kadyrov in Turkey.

The incident has triggered a political crisis in Uzbekistan, with Mirziyoyev’s administration facing a dilemma. The attack represents a direct challenge to Mirziyoyev’s reform agenda, which focuses on modernizing Uzbekistan’s economy and governance. Simultaneously, the international dimension of the plot — implicating Uzbek businessmen and Chechen figures — has put the country at odds with Russia, a key economic partner. Calls have emerged to suspend flights to Chechnya and tighten scrutiny of Russian activities in Uzbekistan.

Consequences and the Road Ahead

For Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, these crises mark a significant shift in regional relations. The combined effects of Azerbaijan’s flight suspensions, Kazakhstan’s dissatisfaction with Russian interference, and Uzbekistan’s exposure of Russian agents seeking to destabilize reforms suggest a widening rift with Moscow. These three nations, once heavily reliant on Russia, are now increasingly asserting their sovereignty through the Organization of Turkic States, the SCO and transnational projects like the Middle Transport-Energy Corridor, aligning with broader regional and international interests.

The implications for Russia’s foreign policy are substantial. These incidents highlight growing dissatisfaction with Moscow’s attempts to exert influence over its neighbors and could push these countries toward alternative partnerships. Azerbaijan’s insistence on a transparent investigation may further strain relations with Russia. Kazakhstan’s assertiveness in international affairs could lead to a reassessment of its ties with Russia, while Uzbekistan’s response to the assassination plot could redefine its approach to regional security and economic cooperation.

While the outcomes of these crises are still unfolding, one thing is clear: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan are at a crossroads. As each country reevaluates its relationship with Russia, the geopolitical map of Central Asia and the South Caucasus is on the brink of significant transformation. The resolution of these crises will shape not only the future of these nations but also the broader dynamics of Eurasian politics.

January messages

07.01.25: Azerbaijan raised the issue of the return of Azerbaijanis to their historical lands in Armenia 10 years ago. However, until the problem of liberating the occupied territories was resolved, this topic was not actively pursued, the head of state, Ilham Aliyev,  said in an interview with local TV channels. “This was our legitimate desire, and now it is time to seriously address this issue,” he said, adding that the community of Western Azerbaijan had established contacts with international organizations, and this issue had already been brought to the international agenda.

07.01.25: Relations with Iran remain uncertain, and there have been no meetings with the new Iranian leader yet. Head of State Ilham Aliyev said this in an interview with local TV channels.

07.01.25: President Ilham Aliyev has said the prospects for Azerbaijan's relations with the European Union are dim.  ‘It is difficult to say how our relations with the European Commission will develop, but last year was a year full of disappointments. It was last year that the EU took Armenia's side unequivocally,’ Aliyev said in an interview with Azerbaijani TV channels.

07.01.25: President Ilham Aliyev has pinned his hopes on the activation of Azerbaijani-American relations after the change of head of state in the US.‘Trump comes to power with a completely new agenda, there were no problems in US-Azerbaijani relations in his first term. On the contrary, they were very positive and we managed to make progress in many directions,’ Aliyev said the day before in an interview with local TV channels. ‘The main mistake’ of the Biden administration was that it sacrificed “US-Azerbaijani relations to US-Armenian relations,” Aliyev said.

07.01.25:  Armenia has become a source of threat to the region and is essentially a fascist state. "Look at the racist and fascist statements of the first president of Armenia, who proudly describes ethnic cleansing and boasts of expelling Azerbaijanis from their historical lands. " "We are neighbors with such a fascist state, and the threat of fascism does not disappear. That's why fascism must be destroyed. Either the Armenian leadership will destroy him, or we will destroy him," Aliyev said in an interview with local TV channels.

President of Azerbaijan Charts Continuation of Last Year’s Policies

President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan gave an extensive televised interview on January 7 to pro-government broadcasters, a format underscoring the tightly controlled media environment in the country. Notably absent were questions addressing public dissatisfaction over recent increases in utility prices, medicines, and basic goods, as well as modest adjustments to pensions and the minimum wage announced after the New Year.

This carefully orchestrated discussion was less a forum for public concerns and more a declaration of Aliyev’s political roadmap for 2025, heavily focused on foreign policy goals intertwined with domestic priorities. Central to his agenda remain the consolidation of personal power, regime longevity, and efforts to secure a long-term peace agreement with Armenia—on Azerbaijan’s terms.

Targeting Macron

Aliyev’s sharpest criticisms were directed at France and Canada, two countries with significant Armenian diasporas. These nations have openly supported Armenia and advocated for terms in the peace process that Aliyev deems unacceptable. Aliyev took his usual swipe at President Macron, while also making a passing jab at outgoing Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau. The European Union and the outgoing Biden administration in the United States received softer rebukes, reflecting Aliyev’s dissatisfaction with even minimal Western pressure for compromise in negotiations with Armenia.

The Azerbaijani leader’s demands remain unchanged: Yerevan must amend its constitution to remove language suggesting territorial claims over Nagorno-Karabakh, a former flashpoint now fully under Baku’s control. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan resists Aliyev’s provocations, offering complex, non-binding conciliatory proposals on borders and trade corridors. Pashinyan’s latest gambit—a call for the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, a longstanding demand by Aliyev—illustrates the ongoing chess match between the two leaders.

Courting Trump

In a notable segment of his interview, Aliyev praised former and potentially returning U.S. President Donald Trump, highlighting successful cooperation during Trump’s previous term, which coincided with Azerbaijan’s swift military victory in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. This admiration reflects strategic calculations, as a potential Trump return to the White House could renew support for Azerbaijan’s assertive policies in the South Caucasus.

However, Aliyev’s relationship with the Biden administration has also yielded results. Under Biden’s leadership, Baku consolidated its control over Nagorno-Karabakh and suppressed remnants of Armenian separatism. Domestically, Aliyev tightened control over civil society, closed independent media, and stifled dissent with minimal resistance from Washington.

Between Iran and Russia

Aliyev adopted a measured tone when discussing relations with Azerbaijan’s southern and northern neighbors, Iran and Russia. Acknowledging grievances, such as the attack on Azerbaijan’s embassy in Tehran and the downing of an Azerbaijani aircraft in Russian airspace, he refrained from broader condemnations. Instead, he attributed such incidents to specific factions or individuals rather than the governments themselves. This pragmatic approach reflects Baku’s need to maintain functional ties with two regional powers despite periodic tensions.

Regime Stability and National Identity

The interview revealed that Aliyev’s overarching strategy rests on two pillars: forcing Armenia to formally renounce any claims to Nagorno-Karabakh and reinforcing his domestic regime. The latter involves neutralizing Western influence by limiting engagement with foreign institutions and NGOs while strengthening ties with states less inclined to question Azerbaijan’s internal policies.

However, for ordinary Azerbaijanis, the president’s foreign policy achievements may seem increasingly removed from their daily struggles. The omission of economic hardships and public discontent over rising costs in the interview may further alienate citizens from the ruling elite, even as the government projects confidence on the international stage.

As Azerbaijan navigates a critical juncture in its post-conflict trajectory, Aliyev’s ability to balance assertive diplomacy with domestic challenges will determine whether his vision for 2025 can withstand both internal and external pressures.

He leaves to return

16.01.25:   On July 1, 2024, USAID's activities in Azerbaijan were officially terminated, Azerbaijan's Foreign Minister, Jeyhun Bayramov,  announced during today's press conference. "It is time to end USAID's activities in Azerbaijan. During negotiations, we saw that the United States does not take Azerbaijan's interests into account, and instead seeks to act in its own interests by dictating terms. The continued presence and representation of USAID in Azerbaijan is no longer necessary, and it is time to completely terminate its activities," the minister said.

18.01.25:  We look forward to continuing our dialogue with the government of Azerbaijan to confirm our partnership, which has been going on for more than 30 years, said Erin Robertson, official representative of the US Embassy in Baku, commenting on the statement by Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov about the impossibility of further cooperation with USAID.

Baku Severs Ties with USAID, Marking a Shift in U.S.-Azerbaijan Relations

On July 1, 2024, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) de jure ended its 33-year presence in Azerbaijan, closing a chapter that began in the early days of the country’s independence. This information, disclosed on January 16 at a press conference by Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, both culminated years of strained relations and reflected changing geopolitical affinities.

“It is time to cease USAID operations in Azerbaijan,” Bayramov stated, his words underscoring the simmering discontent between Baku and Washington. He accused the United States of prioritizing its own interests by imposing conditions on Azerbaijan. According to Bayramov, the agency’s presence had outlived its purpose, further exacerbating ties already strained by mutual distrust.

Since 1991, USAID had invested approximately $431 million in Azerbaijan, funding projects spanning humanitarian aid, healthcare, and economic reforms. Although this partnership was initially welcomed, it became increasingly contentious as the Azerbaijani government accused the agency of collaborating with non-governmental organizations that criticized state policies.

In particular, USAID was criticized for allegedly supporting groups that officials in Baku described as undermining the country’s sovereignty. This view found support in the Milli Majlis (the Azerbaijani parliament), where lawmakers called for the agency’s withdrawal, citing concerns over its supposed interference in domestic affairs.

Tensions were further inflamed by Azerbaijan’s dissatisfaction with U.S. policy in the South Caucasus. Officials pointed to what they considered America's bias in favor of Armenia in the ongoing conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. U.S. criticism of Azerbaijan’s military actions in the region, combined with an alleged failure to recognize Azerbaijan’s priorities, deepened the rift.

The attack on USAID began in November 2023, immediately following the arrest of the leadership of the online publication Abzas Media, whom it was alleged had been funded by the American organization.

However, the “genuine” outburst of indignation erupted after news emerged that USAID had allocated $4 million to Armenian refugees from Karabakh. A tweet by USAID head Samantha Power stating that these people left Karabakh as a result of Azerbaijan’s military operation was received by official Baku almost as a violation of the country’s sovereignty.

Usually calm, the deputy head of state for foreign policy, Hikmet Hajiyev, launched into a lengthy, angry tirade directed at Samantha Power. He accused her of being friendly with former “state minister” of Karabakh Ruben Vardanyan and of complicity in the “Aurora” program.

“Azerbaijani-phobia, Turkophobia, political corruption, and political speculation were, no doubt, common values and interests shared by Ruben Vardanyan and Samantha Power,” the Azerbaijani presidential aide opined.

During the 30 years of occupation of Azerbaijani lands by Armenians, the United States had sided with the aggressor—Armenia. “Today, the same policy continues in the same form and manifestation,” Hajiyev wrote, accusing Power that, as the U.S. representative on the UN Security Council, she never raised the issue of the dire situation of Azerbaijani refugees and internally displaced persons, nor did she demand the implementation of UN Security Council resolutions.

“The masks are off! There is no longer a place for USAID operations in Azerbaijan!” Hikmet Hajiyev pronounced his verdict in the fall of 2023.

According to regional experts, the closure of USAID operations could signal a broader cooling of relations between the U.S. and Azerbaijan. Farid Gahramanov, a Baku-based commentator, sees this move as a signal of Azerbaijan’s growing closeness with Russia and Turkey. “Baku is sending a clear message: it values partnerships that respect its sovereignty and national interests, not those that impose conditions,” Gahramanov said.

Indeed, Azerbaijan’s strategic position—at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East—makes it a key player in energy and trade. Analysts warn that this decision could undermine U.S.-backed energy initiatives, including efforts to diversify gas supplies to Europe away from Russia. “By distancing itself from Washington, Azerbaijan risks limiting the scale of future cooperation on critically important infrastructure projects,” said Kamran Mahmudov, host of the public affairs program “The Difficult Question.”

The decision also brings new diplomatic complications. Moscow is likely to view USAID’s departure as an opportunity to deepen its influence in the South Caucasus, while Ankara may see it as a chance to strengthen its role as Azerbaijan’s closest ally. On the other hand, Yerevan may interpret this step as an indication of closer ties between Azerbaijan and Russia, which could complicate Armenia’s own foreign policy calculations.

Within Azerbaijan, the termination of USAID activities was presented as a victory for national sovereignty. This narrative resonates with a government increasingly focused on countering what it sees as unwarranted Western interference. Anti-American sentiment, already present in some segments of Azerbaijani society, could intensify even further.

From Washington’s perspective, however, the closure is a setback for its democratic initiatives in the region. A State Department spokesperson, speaking on condition of anonymity, decried the move as “a blow to long-standing efforts to promote transparency and development.” European leaders, for their part, are likely to act cautiously, balancing their energy security interests with concerns over Azerbaijan’s political trajectory.

It remains unclear whether this signifies a permanent rupture or merely a temporary recalibration. Experts suggest the possibility of maintaining a limited partnership, focused on trade and energy cooperation. “The relationship is beyond repair, but significant diplomatic efforts from both sides will be required,” Mahmudov said.

As Azerbaijan moves forward without USAID, the decision underscores a broader realignment in the South Caucasus. For Baku, it is a bold assertion of independence. For Washington, it is a reminder of the challenges of managing relations in a strategically vital yet geopolitically volatile region.

Only time will tell whether this separation will serve as a turning point towards greater estrangement—or as a catalyst for rethinking a more balanced partnership between Washington and Baku. For now, the silence over the closure of USAID speaks volumes about the changing dynamics of power and influence in this disputed corner of the world.

Russian House

24.01.25:  Azerbaijan's private broadcaster Baku TV aired a report  accusing the "Russian House" in Baku of engaging in anti-Azerbaijani espionage activities under the guise of cultural and humanitarian work. The report, citing "trusted sources" without disclosing details, alleged that the Russian cultural center is fostering inter-ethnic discord and operating as a hub for intelligence activities.

27.01.25:   Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin invited Azerbaijani Ambassador Rahman Mustafayev to the Russian Foreign Ministry. The Russian Foreign Ministry reports that Galuzin stressed the importance of building relations between Russia and Azerbaijan "in the spirit of strategic partnership and alliance on the basis of the Declaration signed at the highest level on 22 February 2022."  "In this regard, bewilderment was expressed over a series of recent anti-Russian publications in the Azerbaijani media, as well as with regard to the disinformation campaign against the Russian House in Baku. Absolute groundlessness of the accusations  was noted," - reads the press release.

28.01.25:   Russian Ambassador to Azerbaijan Mikhail Yevdokimov was invited to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. "During the meeting it was noted that publications in the Russian press, as well as reports of disinformation nature of some official circles of Russia against our country, create misunderstanding and contradict the content and spirit of the Declaration on Allied Co-operation between Azerbaijan and Russia," the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry press release said.

Baku is burning bridges, or ...

The coldness in relations between Baku and Moscow, which arose after the crash of a civilian airplane, seems to be growing.

Baku increasingly and more often makes it clear to Moscow that it will not allow the death of the plane and its citizens to be hushed up.

After Illham Aliyev's loud statements on December 29 with direct accusations against the Russian side, there was a pause.

However, Baku's hopes that Moscow would recognize the mistakes failed to materialize. Hints in the Russian media and social networks that there was no shelling of the plane, the pilots themselves said that a cylinder exploded on board and there was a collision with birds, led to new escalation.

This time Baku acted on a far larger scale. Few people paid attention to the increased contacts of officials in Baku with Ukrainian diplomats. So far, the authorities have tried not to irritate Moscow by ignoring Kiev's representatives.

Ilham Aliyev's meeting with Vladimir Zelensky in Davos is a step from the same series and, apparently, not the last one.

Publications of Moscow newspapers that the crash of AZAL airplane was the American and Ukrainian handiwork, as well as the statement of Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov that decoding of black boxes proved that Russians were not involved in the death of the airplane, made Baku furious.

AZTV accused Moscow of impeccability and dishonesty.

Pro-government media received a command to expose Russia's “spy nest” in the center of Baku.

This was followed by an unprecedented threat that Baku would sue Moscow in an international court if it did not admit guilt for shooting down the plane.

Such harsh rhetoric may considerably complicate bilateral relations, however, experience shows that Ilham Aliyev's emotionality and his playing on the edge of the foul is more calculated than a manifestation of political recklessness. It is also a demonstration of the very slogan that Azerbaijan will not allow anyone to disregard itself.

Whether this is real or yet an over-estimation of its own importance, the future will show.