Azerbaijan, Russia and Kazakhstan - similar instability

Baku/12.12.13/Turan : "The conditions of stability in the oil-rich countries : analysis of the situation in Azerbaijan, Russia and Kazakhstan is the title of the international conference organized by the Center for National and International Studies.

Three post-Soviet countries in the twenty years of its independent development turned into raw material appendages of the global economy , although at the time of the collapse of the USSR in each of these countries  oil had little share in the economy. For example, in Azerbaijan , even 10 years after the collapse of the Union, the share of oil does not exceed 37%, and today this figure  is about 72% , said the independent expert Natig Jafarli. 

The reasons for such disparities have different roots, such as  the  loss of traditional industries , agriculture as a result of breaking the bonds between the republics, and the loss of markets .

 On the other hand, all  countries increase the production of resources , especially in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

Characteristically, in all three countries democratic tendencies 90s have not been developed due to the fact that the management of the state and control over resources in the hands of the elite - the former Soviet economic and party managers , as well as special services.

Kazakhstan's economy by 80% is under the control of President Nazarbayev and his family, said Sergei Solyanik , an active member of the environmental movement in Kazakhstan.

In all three countries  was observed a merging of political and financial capital , which led to the formation of the oligarchic system of governance. The only difference is that in Russia this form of control is not a clan .

" Putin has  formed his entourage proxies and devoted people, more called St. Petersburg team "  said a famous energy expert , chairman of the party "Democratic Choice", Vladimir Milov .

In Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan on the top of the pyramid is the president or the family , and then his clan or several clans , experts said .

These models were resistant because were able to create relative stability after the early years of independence of the semi-anarchist , as well as due to the start of oil production growth on a large scale . For example, in Azerbaijan for ten years the state budget has grown from $ 1.5 billion to 25 billion, and income of the population - 10 times Dzhafarli said .

However, a policy based on energy resources factor is temporary and quite unstable with respect to conjecture prices , reduced production , and to the crisis of the world economy .

Experts see the general trend for all states: lower oil revenues , falling economic growth and lower incomes , but people are not used to it. This is evidenced by recent local protest bursts in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. According to Milov , Russian society before the 2008 crisis accustomed to constant growth of revenues, which are now falling. These anti-government sentiment  revealed itself recently in the mayoral election in Moscow.

In Russia , Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan elite understands the need for reform  and restricting government intervention in the private sector, reduce monopolies. But the elite are in relatively deadlock – reducing the  state control over society is fraught with loss of power for them in the future.  This is the  opinion of all three experts.

This dilemma is the fundamental dominant in the domestic politics of countries. It will be possible to overcome this barrier under the  coming disintegration of the elites because of internal contradictions , and the consolidation of protest mood.—0—