Mark Meirowitz, a New-York-based American political analyst and attorney, who is very familiar with the Caucasus issues, commented on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's current visit to the region.
"The focus of Secretary Clinton's trip will likely be to prevent the escalation of tensions in the region (which is a powder keg) prior to the November 2012 presidential election. It has been reported that Secretary Clinton plans to step down as US Secretary of State in 2013 whether or not President Obama is reelected, so this might possibly be her last major trip to the region. President Obama has been disengaging from Iraq and Afghanistan and does not want any international calamities before the election", Mr. Meirowitz, told TURAN's Washington DC correspondent.
Just as the United States has tried to prevent Israel from attacking Iran as a result of Iran's nuclearization efforts by promoting sanctions against Iran and, as reported in the press, organizing cyberattacks together with Israel against Iranian nuclear facilities, Secretary Clinton will devote her energies to preventing a full-scale war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno Karabakh, which would be disastrous and bring Russia and Iran directly into the picture, he believes.
In reality, Meirowitz adds, "all roads lead to Russia and Iran". "The two big issues at the top of the international agenda are Iran's nuclear aspirations and the Syrian crisis. Russia and Iran have supported the Assad regime while Turkey and the US have opposed Assad and have devoted their efforts to dislodge Assad in light of the unspeakable brutality of the Syrian regime. It does not appear that the US and Turkey will make any progress on Syria without the acquiescence of Russia. Russia is outspoken in its support of Assad despite all of the horrific reports coming from Syria and has prevented the UN from taking any action on Syria. Effective sanctions against Iran's nuclear efforts have been torpedoed at the UN by Russia (with the support of China)".
The analyst also emphasized that the Armenian occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh has been allowed to stand for years with Iranian and Russian support, just as the situation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia after the Russian intervention has remained the status quo with complete US acquiescence.
"Another lost opportunity because of the crisis in Syria and the increasing influence of Iran is the hoped for rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia envisioned by the Turkey-Armenia Protocols signed in 2009. These Protocols provided for the normalization of relations between the two countries, which would be a boon to the stability of the entire region. The Protocols are dead in the water unfortunately and will remain so because of other, more pressing international issues", Meirowitz, also a member of the Board of Directors of the Turkish-American Chamber of Commerce and Industry, mentioned.
As for human rights issues in Azerbaijan, he believes that Secretary Clinton "might give lip service to this issue, but as we have seen in connection with the Secretary's recent trip to China, human rights concerns such as the Chinese treatment of a blind dissident and his family were not allowed to interfere with the 'high politics' of bilateral relations between the US and China".
"Human rights will be on the back burner because the US needs to have Azerbaijan remain in line with US policy". For Meirowitz, Azerbaijan's international stature has been enhanced by its having held the presidency of the UN Security Council. On a lighter note, Azerbaijan hosted the Eurovision contest, but Armenia did not participate, proving once again that the differences between Baku and Yerevan (just as between Ankara and Yerevan) are truly intractable.
"Former US Speaker of the House Tip O'Neill used to say "All politics is local" and here we have a good example of how international relations can be dependent on electoral politics. President Obama needs Secretary Clinton's help in making sure that the region does not explode prior to the election. This effort will be at the expense of trying to resolve the crisis in Nagorno Karabakh, normalizing relations between Turkey and Armenia and resolving the unfortunate situation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia", he explained.
All in all, the French proverb comes to mind, "Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose", the more things change, the more they remain the same.
"The Clinton trip to the region is meant to keep everything stabilized at least until the November presidential elections. In the meantime, nothing much will change despite the pressing need for diplomatic solutions to the various conflicts which plague the region", he said.
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