Opposition Politicians on U.S.-Azerbaijan Relations During Trump's Presidency

It is difficult to predict the future of Azerbaijan-U.S. relations under Donald Trump, said Ali Kerimli, leader of the Azerbaijan Popular Front Party (PFPA), in an interview with Turan agency. "Since Trump's team has not yet been formed, it is unclear who will be appointed Secretary of State, who is responsible for foreign policy. It is also unclear what priorities Trump's team will have for the Caucasus region," Kerimli noted. At the same time, certain assumptions can be made about Trump's policy.

"Judging by his statements during the election campaign, he will likely pressure Baku to accelerate the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. It can be assumed that continuity in this regard will be maintained," Kerimli believes. In his opinion, Trump’s strategy will involve a tougher stance on China and Iran.

"The Azerbaijani authorities are interested in maintaining relations with Iran, and Azerbaijan has signed a strategic partnership agreement with China. Therefore, there will be challenges in this area. The escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran and China will create additional problems for Azerbaijan," Kerimli said.

The Trump administration will be more interested in a route from India to Europe via the Arabian Peninsula, rather than the "North-South" corridor. "This will create contradictions between the interests of Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia, and the Trump administration," he said.

"Given all these factors, a clash of positions is possible between the authoritarian government of Azerbaijan and the Trump administration," Kerimli continued. He believes that the new administration will not remain silent on the gross human rights violations in Azerbaijan and will issue serious statements on this issue. In turn, Isa Gambar, leader of the "Musavat" party, believes that Trump will continue the same pattern of relations with Baku as during his first presidency from 2016 to 2020. "During that period, nothing extraordinary happened in bilateral relations; they were generally normal," Gambar said.

The U.S. has always expected Azerbaijan to take positions on security and energy matters that are satisfactory to the U.S. Perhaps Trump will want more clarity from Baku. At the same time, there are unpredictable elements in Trump’s policy related to his future relations with Russia, Iran, and Turkey. The direction these relationships take will depend on their impact on the South Caucasus and Azerbaijan.

Unexpected steps regarding the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict are possible. Given Trump's unpredictable nature, Baku should act more carefully and responsibly, Gambar believes.

The head of the Political Committee of the "Republican Alternative" (REAL) party, Natig Jafarli, also believes that bilateral relations have been built over years on significant economic and geopolitical interests. Relations during Republican administrations have generally been more stable. "I don't think Trump's election will lead to any fundamental changes," he said. It is possible that the issues of civil society and democracy will take a back seat, Jafarli noted.