А.Orujlu: The only country Azerbaijanis are unable to achieve success is Azerbaijan

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- Arastun-bey, some developments are taking place in the country.  President approved a new structure of the presidential administration and the Cabinet of Ministers.  Many top officials were dismissed, Parliament dissolved itself. What’s going on? What’s causing this?  

- During our last interview I touched upon a crisis of the system, so the present developments are the searching ways out of crisis. As a matter of fact, the crisis of the system is a result of ineffective activity of hierarchy that ruled in the country for the last 26 years, so there is nothing to be surprised at. The country that gained independence and radically changed social-political and economic  formation, the bureaucracy based on Soviet princples of administration was inherrently unable to build a success model. It was vestiges of the past that our country had to develop to comply with perfectly aliern model, and the situation has its own history. As far back as in 2003, on the eve of the Presidential elections some western diplomats told me that economic freedom, not political one would be in effect in Azerbaijan. It hurt me to hear this not because my belief in the western democracy died away but because it dealt with a model and a recipe designed for our country. If it were successful, it’d be applied in interests of the West in the first turn. However, it is impossible, for the free market economy can develop and strengthen under appropriate political and legal conditions. Regretfully, an abortive model was used to result in deplorable consequences. True, at the first stage, petroleum incomes partly concealed shortcomings of this model. Note that many economists alleged that this was a climatic effect  and that as petroleum incomes fall the country would face a serious crisis. That’s why when oil prices went down, reforms had first been announced. Two factors, however, hampered this process. First, resistance of the corrupt, clan hierarchy; second, oil prices stabilization in a while. However, this stabilization proved to be deceitful because the crisis had already begun, and reforms, particularly structural, were cast aside: the process was risky and painful. It is evident to anyone that the crisis has aggravated, and urgent measures were to be taken. Ilham Aliyev is well aware of appropriate economic indices, so he is engaged in taking measures for performance improvement. However, structural and cadre reforms cannot be carried out without regard to some specific aspects of the matter. This includes, in the first turn, neutralization of groups inside the government loyal to big powers and affective on Azerbaijan. Perhaps, this circumstance forced the authorities to make overtures to Russia. Of course, it is not the only factor of importance: slump of West’ interest in the region. The steps cited above – structural and cadre reshuffles - were made synchronously both in the Presidential administration and the Cabinet of Ministers. At first sight, it’s turn of the Parliament now although there is no direct relation with goings-on above. The point is that rumors about dissolution of the Parliament  have been going round a year and a half ago. As for implementation methods, the most inoptimal variant been chosen here. This factor suggests grounds to claim that the future parliament as a branch of power will be utterly ineffective and as a legislative body unproductive. When forming this legislative body, the most important principle is meant to its political loyalty, particularly in an emergency.

-  There is an opinion that all these goings-on occur in an effort to lift Mehriban Aliyeva to power. How far is it true?

-  To all appearance, this view is not beyond the reach of reason to suggest, especially in the light of the past eighteen months successive steps. A reason to think so is the fact that for some time past some functionaries from Mehriban Aliyeva’ apparatus have been transferred to the presidential administration. However, replies to some questions remain unclear. First, Ilham Aliyev has exercised his presidential powers for a year and a half. Is it so necessary to replace him by Mehriban Aliyeva? Second, Mehriban Aliyeva is the number two in the state and her team is represented in the power structure. How far is it then rational from security standpoint to place Mehriban Aliyeva in the foreground when deemed necessary to substitute Ilham Aliyev? In other words, if the first and second positions are in one hand, how far it’d be expedient to alternate hands thereby raising existing risks? Naturally, I do not exclude some aspects we are unaware of but there are some unclear details that complicate well-grounded judgments and analysis. For example, why does Russia so easily «sacrifice» this large and well organized team so loyal to it? Or protects it against inevitable hazards and relegates to the background?  The point is that Moscow realizes it clearly that as distinct from loyal «old guard» cutouts of the Aliyevs are more universal and all-encompassing. In other words, the question is not only about ties with Russia. Finally, assumption of the presidency by Mehriban Aliyeva means the replacement of 50-year old and deep-rooted hierarchy. This factor is both positive and negative. All this and previously quoted aspects of the matter provide no opportunity to reply your question unambiguously. 

-  A story has long been going about groupings inside the power. It is rumored that the Russian authorities are behind one of these groupings. However, influential persons supposedly members of these groupings have been dismissed from their posts. Are all this happening with the consent of Russia?

- I’ve already answered your question partly. It shopuld be added that if all these tramsformations are taking place with the consent and support of Russia, we’ll have to consider it as a part of Russian efforts to consolidate in the region. Testifying to this are synchronous developments both in Azerbaijan and confrontation between the authority and the opposition in Georgia (Russia vs. West). Another question arises: What does Russia want from Azerbaijan? I think that it is primarily related to geographical location of Azerbaijan at the junction of two important corridors stretching from the north to the south and the east to the west.  This circumstance raises risks and threats for Azerbaijan with due regard for geopolitical struggle for transport-communication canals.

It is worth pointing out that the current geopolitical struggle is different from that 10-15 years ago not only with its format but methods and goals as well.  As it happens, risks are greater than before. Russia as one of the tree countries involved in the struggle and positioning itself as a party with exclusive authorities on the CIS space is eager to strengthen its control over all these territories. Today’s developments in Georgia are, in my view, an integral part of the Russian plan going back to the Caspian-Black sea region. Suffice it to retrace goings-on around the construction of port Anaklia on the Georgia littoral of the Black Sea.

It is no mere coincidence that within 30 years the territorial-ethnic conflicts of the region arrived at no solution: the conflict  freeze creates conditions for complete control over parties involved in the conflict. In all probability, Russia is eager to apply the 1990-Georgian conflict model to the Karabakh conflict. 

In other words, under various pretexts Russia is seeking to deploy its armed forces in the conflict region in the form of so-called peacemakers. Attempts of this sort were made in May 1994; however, Heydar Aliyev availing of oil factor and western support managed to prevent developments of this sort. Should this had happened, we’d lose not only territories but sovereignty as well. Hopefully, this will not happen now even despite Moscow’s attempts on this track.

If any concessions of this sort are made today, the country’s population is sure to disapprove it, and the head of the state may undermine his authority. Over 16 years Ilham Aliyev has taken no step toward sovereignty’s weakening and this, hopefully, won’t take place in future. For this to happen, it is essential to intensify and revitalize relations with the West. It is crucial as never before.  

- Lately, we are witnessing negative statements of the President addressed to the West, Europe. However, the West is silent. What’s going on?  Maybe, the authorities have agreed not only with Russia but Europe as well?  

- As I’ve noted, there serious tensions between Azerbaijan and the West which make us vulnerable to leave our country out in the cold. It should be added that at present the very definition of the West deeply varies from the previous ones. In other words, the United States and Europe cannot be regarded as a single camp.

For this reason, relations with each party have to be regarded separately. So, in the course of the recent visit of two Azerbaijani ministers to Washington some technical problems arose, and the visit faced some difficulties. This suggests the necessity of new views and approaches to the Azerbaijani-American relations. On the other hand, relations between Azerbaijan and Europe are to be maintained in a different capacity. Fir this to happen , a new multi-vector foreign political strategy is to be drawn up a mobile diplomatic corps created to realize this strategy. Unfortunately, the latest changes have not concerned the Foreign Ministry, Elmar Mamedyarov is frequently criticized for poor Azeri language proficiency. The same is true of his English. In the meanwhile, the diplomacy calls for clear, distinctive speech and supple mind.  Beyond any doubts, top diplomats must be well-versed in political processes.

As for West’ silence, it is explained as being due to certain accords. Its tactics is as follows: the West refrains from reacting impulsively, promptly to the irritator but gets to the bottom of the question, has levers enough to use factors effectively. 

- What will be results of the above mentioned?  Where is Azerbaijan going to?  Where will these changes, this political line lead to?

- The questions above have two possible answers: desirable and real. Regretfully, in most cases these answers are at variance. As to results, present day and future have to be reviewed in parallel. The country is in need of urgent reforms, particularly in economy, for time is up. By index of economic growth Azerbaijan is ranked last among CIS countries, and the perspective global economic recession may lead to grave consequences.

In my view, it is necessary, in the first turn, to liberalize the market and remove all obstacles impeding free economic activity.

Added to this can be that the plundering customs system is active in Azerbaijan. Note that economic reforms will produce no effect unless the system is destroyed completely and a new adequate, transparent structure is created. To attain the goal, the corrupt army of top functionaries is to be discharged from job otherwise nothing is goint to come of it.

There is a need in bare-knuckled fight against interference of government bodies with the economy.  Functionaries and officials engaged in entrepreneurship are challenged, for the two activities result in conflict of interests. Both the state and the economy, as well as entrepreneurs are to lose.  Should measures be taken, the rest would fall on humans to finalize. Azerbaijanis will be able to work under the hardest conditions and achieve economic progress. Paradoxical it is, there is sole and exclusive truth: a single place where Azerbaijanis can succeed is Azerbaijan. Reasons of this are known to everybody.

It should be added that the year ahead is expected to be hard, especially as oil prices may collapse, so large investments must be made in the development of non-oil sector. Interest rates of entrepreneurial credits have to be reduced to a business-acceptable level. To my thinking, all issues mentioned above are to be resolved through implementation of urgent measures. Story goes that a refrigerator’s contents has a greater impact on human consciousness than TV reproduced picture. Granting this, any unsupported, economically populist and decorative measures will produce no effect, quite the opposite. In this respect, the public opinion and public support will be favorable for those capable of changing refrigerator’s contents. However, thorough legal reforms, including juridical ones, are required to effectuate the above-mentioned projects.  And the most important thing is the manifestation of political will and determination. In this respect, formation of silent and tame parliament is none other than lull.

Note that the theatrics of reforms offers an opportunity to stock up with time; however, that won’t remedy the situation: sooner or later the existing challenges are sure to enter the agenda in direr form. An ordinary citizen does not give damn who will be responsible for stepping stone. He is concerned about betterment of his life conditions and improvement of social welfare.