Footsteps of the Postneft era - penalty economy

Under relentless May rain, Baku transformed for six days into the capital of global urbanism. Inside the pavilions of the Olympic Stadium, delegates from 182 countries discussed artificial intelligence, climate resilience, housing, transport, and the future of megacities. Giant screens cycled through presentations of “smart cities,” ministers spoke about green energy, architects promoted the idea of a fair urban environment, and United Nations officials warned of an approaching global housing crisis.

Despite the continuing growth of wages, Azerbaijan’s labor market in 2026 is increasingly showing signs of structural inequality typical of resource-based economies, where high incomes are concentrated in a limited number of export-oriented sectors, while a significant share of the population remains in the low-income zone.

At first glance, Azerbaijan’s demographic picture appears stable. The population continues to grow, the state is expanding infrastructure spending, and the economy shows resilience on the back of energy revenues. Yet beneath this surface a more subtle and strategically significant process is unfolding — a gradual transformation of the population structure that could redefine the country’s growth model in the decades ahead.

In Baku, it is becoming harder to say where the working day begins. It is no longer tied to an office, no longer measured by turnstiles, and no longer ends when the lights go out. It starts with a notification — an email from a client, a new project, a request from another country.