Russia "softly" leaves the South Caucasus

On June 27, 2014 in Brussels, was signed an agreement on the association of Georgia with the European Union. Since March 2017, Georgia, as well as having signed a similar agreement with the EU Ukraine and Moldova, received preferences in the form of visa-free entry of Georgian citizens into the EU space.

In November 2017, Armenia joined rather modest and declarative document with the EU on cooperation within the framework of the EU's Eastern Partnership program.

Former Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Tofiq Zulfugarov believes that there is a gradual exit of Russia from the South Caucasus. First, Russia left Georgia, taking with itself two of its national provinces.

"Now Armenia - news portals and Facebook are full of publications on the topic "Russian politicians compare Armenia to a corrupt woman" and no less emotional responses of Armenians trying to show themselves as an ancient nation "surviving the eight empires". If we reject the propaganda and attempt to analyze on the basis of emerging tendencies, then we can conclude that there is a concerted action of a large process sponsored by the West and Russia. The process of reformatting the South Caucasus, T. Zulfugarov writes.

It is obvious that the signing of the agreement within the framework of the "Eastern Partnership" is the beginning of a long, long process of transformation of the Armenian situation. The years of Armenia's independence have shown that it has not taken place as an independent state and the proof of this is that its economy and security system, including the armed forces, are provided solely from outside resources, mostly Russian ones. Today's critical statements about Armenia should be seen primarily as the "fatigue" of the Russian elite to economically and financially contain a "walking woman" and the readiness to transfer this part of the concerns to the West, either partially or, if possible, completely. Moreover, it should be assumed that Russia will continue to provide security to Armenia on its own.

I am sure that the readiness to carry out this function is nothing more than a propagandistic one, however this political line will continue and after a short period of "Armenian insults" they will favorably favor this role of Russia," the former foreign minister continued.

The Russian military base in the Armenian city of Gumri will play the role of the "last legion" in Transcaucasia (remember the popular film of the same name) in the process of Russia's retreat for the Caucasian ridge. The withdrawal will continue until the West completely supplants Russian influence.

Russia is slowly "leaving Azerbaijan." Moreover, the process of Russia's leaving in Azerbaijan will be of a mild, non-conflict nature, which will mainly take place in the form of a reduction in the number of "Russophiles" in the ruling elite of Azerbaijan and their replacement by "Westerners," Zulfugarov writes.

At this point it would be appropriate to recall how "softly" Russia will withdraw its troops from Azerbaijan, including the radar tracking station in Gabala, abandoned by Russian military experts. Gabala radar station, built in 1984, was one of the key elements of the air defense of the former Soviet Union, allowing to control the launches of ballistic missiles and carry out reconnaissance at a range of up to 8,000 kilometers. After the collapse of the USSR, Moscow and Baku signed an agreement according to which the radar in Gabala was transferred by the Azerbaijani side to Russia for rent. However, in 2012, under pressure from the United States, Russia left the facility.

In view of the fact that the Azerbaijani economy and the security system, including the armed forces, are self-sufficient and are structures that are already "Westernized" to a large degree, this process will be limited to only part of the highest political stratum. And, when we mean the transformation of the elite, it should not necessarily be understood as a change of personalities, everything can be limited to changing political lexicon of some politicians," T. Zulfugarov concluded.