The performance of the Peace Statement on Karabakh is mired in creating the Zangezur corridor

Speaking via video-conference at the 76th session of the UN General Assembly on September 23, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev emphasized that" since the end of the conflict, Azerbaijan has regularly declared its readiness to start talks with Armenia on a peace agreement based on the principles of delimitation and demarcation of borders, mutual recognition of each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity."

"Such an agreement might turn our region into the one of peace and cooperation. However, so far we have seen no positive response from Armenia to our proposal," Aliyev said.

In his opinion expressed repeatedly at various international platforms and negotiations, and repeated on September 23, "one of the areas serving peace and cooperation can be transport projects."

"In this respect, the Zangezur corridor to connect the main part of Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic (NAR) and Turkey will create new opportunities for our region," the head of the state reiterated.

However, the lack of progress on this track which, according to Azerbaijan, is reflected in the Peace Statement signed on November 10, 2020 by the Presidents of Azerbaijan, the Russian Federation and the Prime Minister of Armenia, might obscure the progress the Peace Agreement performance.

For more than 10 months since the signing of the Peace Statement on Karabakh, the parties are still faced with irreconcilable contradictions on the implementation of the 9th Paragraph of this Statement – on unblocking all economic and transport ties in the region.

Throughout recent years, Azerbaijan and Armenia, despite the mediation of the Russian Federation and even Turkey (not a participant to the Peace Declaration, yet, a recognized lobbyist of Azerbaijan's interests), failed to move forward, getting bogged down in such an issue as the creation of the Zangezur (Meghri) transport corridor from Azerbaijan through the territory of Armenia to the Azerbaijani Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic (exclave).

Armenia categorically rejects such a transit route so far, although Nikol Pashinyan constantly declares Armenia's readiness to unblock transport communications with Azerbaijan.

Suffice it to say that in the first three weeks of September Pashinyan thrice declared good intentions of Armenia, categorically rejecting any corridor through its territory with reference to the Peace Statement of November 10, 2020.

It should be recalled that the following is set forth in this document (Paragraph 9) (reference to Kremlin's official website): "All economic and transport links in the region are unblocked. The Republic of Armenia guarantees the safety of transport communication between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic with a view of organizing the unhindered movement of citizens, vehicles and cargo in both directions. The control over the transport communication is carried out by Border Service bodies of the FSS of Russia. By agreement of the Parties, the construction of the new transport communications linking the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic with the western regions of Azerbaijan will be ensured."

Note that Azerbaijan and Turkey believe the Zangezur (Meghri) corridor to be the shortest link that may be extended into Turkey itself.

Armenia is opposing this possibility, seeking at the same time to improve relations with Turkey. Giving no reasons for their negative attitude to the idea of the Zangezur (Meghri) corridor, Armenian officials lay an emphasis on the parallel creation of a new route in the Lachin corridor to connect Armenia with Armenian settlements in the Karabakh region.

It has to be kept in mind that Paragraph 6 of the Peace Statement of the leaders of Azerbaijan, Russia and Armenia notes as follows: "By agreement of the Parties, a plan of the construction of a new route along the Lachin corridor to link Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia will be specified in the next three years together with the subsequent redeployment of the Russian peacekeeping contingent to protect this route. The Republic of Azerbaijan guarantees the safety of movement of citizens, vehicles and cargo in both directions along the Lachin corridor."

At present, a peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is deployed along the Lachin corridor.

Added to this can be that the Joint Statement of Putin, Aliyev and Pashinyan dated January 11, 2021 on the establishment of a trilateral inter-governmental commission on unblocking communications is also authoritative for the Parties. Under the Joint Statement, " it is proposed to submit a list and a schedule for implementation of measures providing the restoration and construction of new transport infrastructure facilities needed for international transportation performed through the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia, as well as the transportation performed by the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia which provides to cross the territories of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia".

Opinions of officials

"We are extremely interested in opening communications, as this will be an opportunity to overcome the blockade of Armenia which we have been for more than 25 years. I hope that as a result of the work we will come to specific decisions," Pashinyan said at a meeting with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk in Yerevan on September 20. — It is very important for us to finally get a railway connection with Russia to thus open up new opportunities for the development of our economy and our integration into the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)."

Also, the Armenian Prime Minister stressed his interest in opening communications in the region on September 8 and 15.

On September 19,Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan responded to these statements as follows:

"On the one hand, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan says that he is against the opening of the Zangezur corridor, on the other hand, he wants to meet with me. It makes you think. If you want to meet with Tayyip Erdogan, then you need to take certain steps. We are not closed for meetings. The Prime Minister of Georgia informed me about Pashinyan's offer to meet. But for this to happen, Armenia must take positive steps. If this meeting takes place, Turkey could also establish diplomatic ties (with Yerevan)...The opening of the Zangezur corridor could remove issues in the relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia."

It is noteworthy that Overchuk (head of the trilateral commission on unblocking transport communications in the region) recently told reporters in Yerevan that "we do not have corridors on the agenda of the trilateral working group (!). The parties are seeking to unblock transport and economic ties in the region, build and restore transport communications."

The essential point to remember is that Pashinyan's rhetoric in August 2021 cleared up, to some extent, the position of Armenia, which, apparently, is also taken into consideration by the Russian Federation.

It is worth reminding that "Armenia is ready to unblock regional communications with Azerbaijan; however, it will not provide a transport corridor to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic of Azerbaijan through its territory. Within the framework of the work of the trilateral working group, we have a serious opportunity to break the blockade of Armenia. The process is rather complicated which is increasingly aggravated by Baku's provocative statements about some corridors. I repeat once again, there is no talk of a corridor through Armenia in the statements of November 2020 and January 11, 2021, "the Armenian Prime Minister holds Note that he once again emphasized that " Armenia has not discussed, and will not discuss any corridor-related issues. When declaring the corridors, Azerbaijan is eager to disrupt the process of opening regional communications."

His press secretary Mane Gevorgyan echoes him: "In some statements, the topic of unblocking communications is changing into the logic of maintaining regional isolation. Mentioning corridors is exactly like this and contrary to the logic of establishing peace and stability in the region through overcoming the hostility. These statements are aimed at keeping the countries and peoples of the region in isolation. However, there are options for unblocking regional communications to emphasize the inter-relationship of the region and thereby become a real means of overcoming the hostility. The Armenian government is supportive of this option which is outlined in the trilateral statements."

To all appearance, the Armenian side was frightened by the statement of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev that the Zangezur corridor provides for the restoration of the railway track that existed before the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In considering that the railways of Armenia are in concession with the Russian Federation, Azerbaijan has to discuss the topic with the Russian Federation. It should be acknowledged that diplomatic relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia have not yet been restored, since the sides have no Peace Agreement which is hindered, in particular, by contradictions on transport corridors.

It should be borne in mind that Armenia is apprehensive that the corridor will receive the status of an extraterritorial one (Azerbaijan insists on this), and it sees this as a threat of the rejection of a part of its territory (in the Meghri region) keeping in mind that at one time Western Zangezur (now the Meghri region) had been under the jurisdiction of Azerbaijan.

In this context, Azerbaijan's stand on the creation of the Zangezur corridor is supported not only by Turkey but Kazakhstan and a number of Turkic-speaking states as well. Also, it is crucial that even the head of the EU Council, Charles Michel also endorsed the idea in summer this year.

It was no mere coincidence that in August President Ilham Aliyev emphasized that "The Zangezur corridor can become a new transport project in Eurasia, it will be a new opportunity for the countries of the region. For example, Turkey will be able to deliver its goods to Central Asia in a shorter and alternative way, and this route will become the second link with Turkey after the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway. At the same time, Azerbaijan will be connected by rail with its integral part - the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic," Ilham Aliyev said in August.

To his thinking, this project will enable Russia and Iran to have railway links with Nakhchivan and Turkey.

Opinions of political scientists and experts

Russian historian and political scientist Oleg Kuznetsov maintains that Armenia takes the creation of the Zangezur corridor as a threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity; however, in reality, everyone needs this corridor, including the Russian Federation.

"The creation of the Zangezur corridor is now fundamentally more important for the geopolitics of the South Caucasus. The most interesting thing about this issue is that today it is not Baku or Yerevan as most active actors in its practical implementation but Moscow for which the opening the Zangezur transport corridor is much more important today than for all other participants in the Karabakh agreement. Moscow's interest in the creation of the Zangezur corridor is due to a fundamentally new model of Russian-Armenian relations adopted by the Kremlin and aimed at strengthening and preserving the geopolitical presence of the Russian Federation in this region in all senses through the so-called "bankruptcy" of Armenia in the medium term," Kuznetsov believes.

In turn, Sergey Markov, head of the Russian Institute of Political Studies, holds that if the talks on the Zangezur corridor fail, it would mean that the transport corridor between Armenia and Russia through the territory of Azerbaijan will not be implemented either .

"The inability to perform the Zangezur transport corridor project means a serious degradation of economic development opportunities of Armenia," the political scientist opines.

He explains the complexity of the talks on this track as follows: "As far as I understand, Azerbaijan suggests that this should be a real transport corridor with certain principles of extraterritoriality, primarily to protect the safety of goods and people traveling along this transport corridor. Armenia is apprehensive that this will be to some extent the alienation of a part of its territory."

As a whole, according to Markov, when unblocking communications it is essential to remember that there are several types of communications in the region.

"The first is the communication between a part of Karabakh where the Armenian population lives and the territory of Armenia. These communications are fully functioning today; however, no legal status of this corridor is fully defined today, since it is legally the territory of Azerbaijan; however, the Azerbaijani authorities are not represented there as yet. The second type of communication is the communication between the territory of Karabakh where the Armenian population lives and the rest of Azerbaijan, i. e. between Khankendi and Baku, Khankendi and Shusha. Gradually, it is necessary to ensure that the population might safely use these transport communications, so that the economic life is restored there, and the population of all regions of Karabakh can gradually integrate into the general economic life of Azerbaijan. The third type is communication between Armenia and Russia through the territory of Azerbaijan, and the route is specified at the level of the trilateral commission. And the fourth, the most powerful, politically and economically significant project, is the so-called Zangezur corridor, i. e. the transport communication between Nakhchivan and the main territory of Azerbaijan. If performed, the Zangezur corridor will also unite the powerful economies of Azerbaijan and Turkey, as well as Russia and Turkey, through the railway. This is a powerful project that can become an incentive for economic growth in large areas, even in those that it does not pass through."

Rufat Bayramov, transport expert, TRACECA project coordinator for Azerbaijan, explained the ASTNA that since February 2021, Azerbaijan has been building a 100-km section of the Goradiz-Agbend road,the longest section on the planned route to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic(NAR) which has been under blockade for nearly 30 years due to the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

"The Goradiz-Agbend railway is a demonstration of Azerbaijan's intentions to relieve tensions in the relations with Armenia. It is necessary to connect the Zangilan region of Azerbaijan with the NAR through a 43-km (according to other sources, 45 or 47-km) section on the territory of Armenia. Also, there is a need in 16-km branch line to Ordubad. However, pitfall of the idea of a railway transport corridor from Azerbaijan to the NAR via Armenia is the unpredictability of the behavior of top officials in Armenia. However, it is the political factor that creates a certain risk. We can only hope for a reasonable approach of Armenia and the desire of the Russian Federation to comply with clauses of the Peace Statement signed by Aliyev, Putin and Pashinyan on November 10, 2020 to open new and old roads," Bayramov noted.

It has to be kept in mind that Turkey is going to build a road from Igdir to Sharur (NAR) thus contributing to the creation of a short route that, taking into account the goodwill of the parties, will connect the countries of the South Caucasus with Turkey in the south and with the Russian Federation in the north to thus become an additional bonus for the East — West trade and transport corridor.

Erdogan recently reiterated this intention.

As viewed by the head of the Azerbaijani Center for Analysis of Economic Reforms and Communications (ACAERC) Vusala Gasimli, "through the use of the transport capabilities of Azerbaijan in two directions - Gyumri-Nakhchivan - Meghri - Baku and Yerevan - Gazakh - Baku, Armenia can establish transport links with its strategic partner Russia which accounts for about 30% of Armenia's trade turnover."

Note that the expert believes that Armenia can join the transport corridors created by Azerbaijan and Turkey that actually enables it to get an access to the Caspian, Black and Mediterranean Seas.

Gasimli holds that the new bundle of Armenia will also give it a new access to Iran, the Gulf of Oman and further to the Indian Ocean.

In turn, the head of one of the Armenian transport companies ("Alaven") In an interview with journalists in Armenia, Gagik Agajanyan actually voiced the vision that Armenia invests in establishing transport links with Azerbaijan —"it is possible to use the existing railway between Armenia and Azerbaijan which requires a little repair, through the northern regions of the Armenian Republic which goes further into the central parts of the country, and from there the railway branch reaches Nakhchivan."

Most likely, Pashinyan is afraid of discontent inside Armenia itself if he agrees to the Zangezur corridor because it could cost him the loss of the post of Prime Minister).

A number of experts in Armenia believe that the road that goes to Baku and further to Derbend will be enough for Armenia to connect with the Russian Federation. At the same time, just 500-600 meters will need to be restored on the territory of Armenia. Also, this road will be suitable for communication with the NAR.

Yerevan opines that it'd be enough for Armenia to have access to the Georgian ports of the Black Sea; the connection with the Russian Federation goes through the territory of Georgia along the Upper Lars, so the Zangezur corridor is rather a political project of Azerbaijan and Turkey directed against defeated Armenia.

Under this distribution of regional countries' positions, it is not possible to get a prompt Comprehensive Peace Agreement.—0—