Arkady Dubnov on the elections in Türkiye, Karabakh and the situation in the region

According to political scientist,  expert on Central Asia Arkady Dubnov, the outcome of the presidential elections in Turkey, especially if Kemal Kilicdaroglu were to win in the second round, could potentially lead to a significant geopolitical shift in the region. However, he notes that most regional leaders are likely unprepared for such a change, and it would take time for them to adapt to a new government in Turkey.

Dubnov acknowledges that Kilicdaroglu's victory in the second round is not guaranteed, considering the significant parliamentary majority held by Erdogan's Justice and Development Party. Nevertheless, he suggests that Kilicdaroglu could potentially attract some of the voters who supported the third candidate, Sinan Ogan, who unexpectedly received more than 5% of the votes in the first round.

If Kilicdaroglu were to come to power, Dubnov believes that the internal direction of Turkey could undergo changes. Erdogan's emphasis on traditional and religious values could give way to a greater focus on secularism and Western liberal values, with a commitment to the legacy of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.

Regarding Turkey's relationship with Azerbaijan, the expert does not anticipate a fundamental revision under a new government. He points out that the existing ties between Turkey and Azerbaijan are based on Turkic identity, historical and confessional kinship, as well as significant economic interests. However, he suggests that the tone of Ankara's approach to Azerbaijan's policies in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict might change, potentially becoming less supportive of what he describes as Baku's "rather brutal policy" in the conflict.