Brussels Prelude: Azerbaijan and Armenia Hold Fifth Meeting Amidst Uncertainty

The recent meeting between the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, and the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, in Brussels as part of the Brussels format could serve as a prelude to further negotiations. These negotiations may take place under the guidance of the President of France and the Chancellor of Germany at the upcoming Second Summit of the European Political Community in Chisinau on June 1.

The meeting in Brussels followed a preliminary artillery exchange along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border near the Zod gold deposit, resulting in casualties on both sides. Interestingly, a similar pattern was observed prior to the Aliyev-Pashinyan meeting in Prague on October 6, 2022, mediated by French President Emmanuel Macron, where border clashes and significant losses occurred on September 13.

However, the fifth negotiations in Brussels did not lead to any significant decisions either on the part of Aliyev and Pashinyan, or on the part of the mediator. President of the European Council, Charles Michel, emphasized that the European Union's sole objective is to assist Armenia and Azerbaijan in achieving a comprehensive and just peace. The representatives of Azerbaijan and Armenia expressed satisfaction with the meeting, as it did not impose any obligations on them. Both Baku and Yerevan are pursuing their own policies regarding the conflict settlement. While both sides aim to sign a peace treaty that recognizes mutual territorial integrity, they differ in their perspectives on the status of the Armenian-populated territory of Karabakh (APTK). Yerevan envisions Azerbaijan's integrity without APTK, whereas Baku opposes this notion and rejects granting any autonomous status to the region.

Consequently, each party has its own motivations to prolong the negotiation process. Armenia hopes for a geopolitical upheaval that would enable it to regain control over APTK, while Azerbaijan, consolidating its position in Karabakh and along the border, anticipates that the Armenians will eventually accept the existing status quo.

Given the outcome of the Brussels meeting, it remains uncertain whether a significant agreement will be reached during the upcoming Chisinau summit, leaving President Macron and Chancellor Olaf Scholz to settle for the customary commitment to peace in the European sense. The recent meeting between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Arlington, mediated by the U.S. Secretary of State, failed to produce a planned roadmap for peace, which was intended to form the basis of the Chisinau summit.

Even the intermediaries themselves harbor uncertainties. For instance, Chancellor Scholz, during separate meetings with Pashinyan and Aliyev in Berlin, adopted different stances, focusing on the principle of the right of nations to self-determination in one case and emphasizing the priority of territorial integrity in the other. The French have adopted a similar approach to the issue.

The Russians, too, are not lagging behind their Western counterparts. They avoid addressing the issue of self-determination, relying on their military presence in Karabakh and the loyalty of the conflicting parties to maintain the status quo outlined in the trilateral statement of November 10, 2020. Moscow remains faithful to this document, which guarantees Russian control over the situation. Pashinyan's recent visit to Moscow for the Victory Parade and the scheduled meeting of Azerbaijan and Armenia's leaders in Moscow at the end of May aim to reinforce the preservation of the status quo, including during the Chisinau summit.