Tensions Rise on the Border: Blinken's Diplomatic Moves and West Meeting Without Azerbaijan

As tensions escalate on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's recent diplomatic maneuvers and the upcoming trilateral meeting between the United States, the European Union, and Armenia on April 5th have sparked concern and controversy in Baku.

Secretary Blinken initiated a call with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on April 3rd to address Azerbaijani apprehensions regarding the trilateral meeting. Blinken emphasized that the meeting's focus would center on Armenia's economic development, seeking to assuage Azerbaijani fears of military collaboration and arming Armenia.

However, President Aliyev voiced deep concerns over alleged discussions within the trilateral meeting regarding military assistance to Armenia, joint military exercises, and the establishment of military infrastructure along the Azerbaijani border. Aliyev warned against policies that could potentially exacerbate regional tensions and trigger an arms race, particularly emphasizing France's arming of Armenia as a destabilizing factor.

Despite assurances from Blinken that the April 5 meeting is not aimed against Azerbaijan, skepticism remains high in Baku, fueled by recent reports of Armenian troop movements near the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. Political commentator Rauf Mirkadyrov, speaking on the program "A Difficult Question," expressed skepticism towards both Azerbaijani and Armenian claims, highlighting the region's history of mistrust and conflict.

Mirkadyrov underscored Armenia's reluctance to engage in further escalation, citing the recent "44-day war" and subsequent conflicts as evidence of its vulnerability against Azerbaijan's military superiority. However, he warned that continued tensions play into Russia's regional interests, potentially solidifying Armenia's reliance on Russian support and further complicating regional dynamics.

Moreover, Mirkadyrov acknowledged Azerbaijan's stated willingness to sign a peace agreement but noted the country's cautious approach, recognizing that a peace accord alone does not guarantee stability. He suggested that discussions within the trilateral meeting may indeed have touched upon military assistance to Armenia and related issues as a response to Azerbaijan's reluctance to pursue a peace agreement expeditiously.

The complexity of the situation underscores the delicate balancing act facing regional powers and international actors alike. As Blinken seeks to allay Azerbaijani concerns and promote economic development in Armenia, the specter of unresolved conflicts and strategic interests looms large, with implications that extend far beyond the borders of the South Caucasus.