Azerbaijan's GDP Decreased by 3%, But The State Statistics Committee Says It Will Grow by 4.2%

Azerbaijan’s economy appears to be experiencing mixed fortunes according to the latest data from the State Statistics Committee. The Committee reports a GDP growth of 4.2% in the first five months of the year, reaching 48,026 million manats. This surface-level success, however, masks underlying complexities and raises questions about the accuracy of these figures.

Although this figure may indicate an improvement in the economic situation, a deeper study of the figures indicates the opposite. A comparison with the previous year paints a different picture: The GDP for the same period in 2023 amounted to 49 580.8 million manats. This discrepancy indicates a decrease in GDP by 3%, and not the declared growth.

The oil and gas sector, traditionally the cornerstone of the Azerbaijani economy, has not shown growth compared to the same period in 2023, the State Statistics Committee notes, without naming figures. In contrast, the non-oil and gas sector expanded significantly, increasing by 7.3%. Despite these figures, there are concerns about the true state of the oil and gas sector, which is experiencing a gradual decline of 2.5%.

Analyzing the structure of GDP, the data show that 39.7% of GDP production is accounted for by industry, while trade and vehicle repairs account for 9.6%. The share of transport and warehousing is 7%, construction - 6%, and agriculture, forestry and fisheries - 3.8%. Other notable sectors include tourist accommodation and catering (2.4%), as well as information and communications (1.8%). A significant 20.1% is accounted for in various other areas, with net taxes on products and imports accounting for 9.6% of GDP.

GDP per capita stands at 4,713 manats. While this figure might suggest an improving economic situation, a deeper dive into the numbers suggests otherwise.

This isn’t the first instance of discrepancies in Azerbaijan’s GDP reports. In the first four months of 2024, the State Statistics Committee announced a 4.3% growth. However, an audit contradicted these claims, revealing an actual decrease of 4.5%. Such discrepancies cast doubt on the reliability of the reported figures and highlight the need for more transparent and accurate economic reporting.

Gross Domestic Product production in January-may 2023

Gross Domestic Product production in January-may 2024