Azerbaijan's SOFAZ Revenues Set to Dwindle in 2024 Amidst Declining Oil Prices

In the fiscal year 2024, the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) anticipates a considerable reduction in revenues, notably attributed to the sale of oil and gas under production sharing agreements (PSA). Projections indicate a total revenue of $4.79 billion, a stark 43% decrease in manat terms compared to the anticipated figures of 2023.

The diminished financial outlook stems from the recalibration of SOFAZ's revenue calculations, tethered to an average oil price of $60 per barrel for the year 2024. This contrasts with the actual average oil price, specifically for Azeri Light, which stood at $85.5 per barrel during the initial nine months of 2023.

Breaking down the revenue streams, SOFAZ foresees a yield of $4.09 billion from the profitable oil extracted from the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG) block in 2024. This encompasses 70.86 million barrels of oil. Additional revenue projections include $596.31 million from the sale of profitable condensate and gas extracted from the Shah Deniz field (6.48 million barrels condensate and 5.02 billion cubic meters of gas) and $77.38 million from the Absheron field (810 thousand barrels of condensate and 290 million cubic meters of gas).

Furthermore, SOFAZ expects revenues from various other oil and gas fields in 2024. Projections include $2.18 million from Surakhany-Garachukhur, $1.72 million from Zykh-Hovsan, $1.71 million from Kursangi-Garabagly, $0.47 million from Neftchala-Khilly, $1.33 million from Mishovdag-Kelametdin, $6.19 million from Kurovdag, $7.1 million from Balakhany-Sabunchu-Ramana-Kurdakhany, $6.68 million from the Binagadi block, and $1.36 million from "Bahar-Gum-deniz."

As Azerbaijan navigates this financial landscape, the decline in revenues underscores the sensitivity of the nation's economic prosperity to fluctuations in global oil prices, prompting a reassessment of fiscal strategies in the face of ongoing market volatility.-0--