Azerbaijan's Presidential Election: Victory for Incumbent President Amidst Criticisms and Controversies

As voting concluded in the early presidential elections, the anticipation over President Ilham Aliyev's victory intensified. By 5 PM local time in Baku, over 70% of voters had cast their ballots, with an exit poll conducted by the Oracle Advisory Group revealing an overwhelming support of more than 93.9% for President Aliyev. The remaining six candidates, who refrained from openly criticizing the president during the campaign, garnered no more than 1.8% of the votes each, with Zahid Oruj securing the second-highest share. The Rəy Public Opinion Monitoring Center reported Aliyev's support at 92.6%, prompting congratulatory messages despite the absence of an official declaration on the election outcome.

President Aliyev's victory marks his fourth consecutive term, following his initial presidency in 2003, with subsequent wins in 2008, 2013, and 2018. However, the elections were not without controversy, drawing sharp criticism from both international organizations and domestic quarters. Prior to the elections, Azerbaijan faced reproach from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) for denying PACE observers access to monitor the elections within the country. Although an Election Observation Mission from the OSCE Bureau of Democratic Institutions and Human Rights was permitted, concerns regarding pre-election conditions were raised.

Despite international scrutiny, observers from the Organization of Turkic States, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Russia, Turkey, and several other nations commended the elections as being conducted in accordance with international standards. Italian parliamentary observer Andrea di Giuseppe hailed the presidential elections as organized in line with such standards.

However, major opposition parties, including the Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan and Musavat, boycotted the elections, denouncing them as unfair and illegal. These parties highlighted anti-democratic conditions prevailing in the country and demanded the annulment of the voting results.

Amidst criticisms and controversies, President Aliyev's popularity remains buoyed by the military-political victory in Karabakh from 2020 to 2023. The liberation of occupied territories, particularly the conduct of elections in the entire liberated territory of Karabakh, bolstered support for Aliyev. Spontaneous marches in support of the president in Baku and Nakhchivan underscored his increased popularity stemming from the resolution of the longstanding conflict with Armenia over Karabakh.

However, allegations of electoral irregularities persist, with independent observers and journalists documenting numerous instances of blatant violations of election laws on polling day. The Central Election Commission (CEC) is expected to address these concerns, yet previous elections have seen CEC dismiss such violations as insufficient to alter the election outcome.

As Azerbaijan moves forward under President Aliyev's continued leadership, speculation abounds regarding the nation's future trajectory. Debates over potential shifts towards democracy or further authoritarianism reflect the diverse expectations within Azerbaijani society. With the presidential term set for the next seven years, the country stands at a critical juncture, awaiting clarity on its path forward.