South Caucasian Processes and a View from Russia

The situation in the South Caucasus, in light of the permanent parliamentary and presidential elections in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, as well as Russia's regional policy in modern conditions were the subjects of discussion at the conference entitled, "Promoting freedom, peace and prosperity. The Potential relationship of the Southern Caucasus and Russia," held in Tbilisi on October 31.

A press correspondent of Turan reports, the event organized by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation "For Freedom" was attended by party leaders of the three countries of the South Caucasus, members of the European Liberal Democrat and Reform Party, Musavat, Armenian National Movement, the Republican Party of Georgia, as well as Moscow Carnegie's and regional experts.

Elections on October 1 in the Georgian parliament introduced a new element in developing the political process in the region, a process undergoing a transformation in authoritarian regimes to democratic ones. This was the keynote speech of almost all the politicians and experts.

Musavat Party's head Isa Gambar and Chairman of the Armenian National Movement Aram Manukyan called the event a victory of the democratic forces in the region.  "The success of the elections is that we have seen the first peaceful transfer of power in the Caucasus," said Gambar.

Political Secretary of the Republican Party Davit Berdzenishvili, said if the new government is going to spend the domestic political and economic reforms, including the constitution, with the aim of deepening democracy, continuity in foreign policy will continue. "Georgia is committed to the development of strategic relations with NATO, the EU, but official Tbilisi will take steps to improve relations with Russia," he said.

Carnegie experts noted the ambiguity of views in the Russian ruling elite, on the Georgian-Russian relations in the new situation. "The Kremlin has many towers and each tower thinks her", said the Moscow Carnegie Center Andrei Ryabov. According to him, in pro-government expert circles, there is more talk about the "high point" of Russia and favorable conditions for the implementation of mega-projects such as "Eurasian Union."

Expert Alexei Malashenko pointed out the statement by President Putin, who described the election results on October 1 changed the situation in Georgia. According to Ryabov, Moscow could be ready for productive negotiations through a third country such as Switzerland at first, which have represented the interests of Georgia since the war of 2008, in particular, to the WTO.question.

Georgia will not speed up the process but will establish a working relationship with both Russia, Abkhaz, and South Ossetian, said Ivlian Haindrava, program director of the South Caucasus Research Institute of the National. "First and foremost, we need to make the country open to the parties and to establish a stable dialogue."

Regarding the Armenian and Azerbaijani policy, a revision is expected. The new government intends to strengthen and develop relations with its neighbors and finally resolve some issues, especially on border delimitation.

The topic of the North Caucasus was discussed, in a special project of the Greater Caucasus stability. Russian experts recognized that in the region there are complex processes, which are affected by the ethnic and Islamic factor.  The process is also afftected by economic and social problems, and the weak influence of the North Caucasus republics center.

Moscow experts made it clear, the Kremlin understands that without meaningful dialogue with Georgia and other countries of the South Caucasus establishing stability in the Caucasus area will fail. -0 -