Russia's Interests in Azerbaijan: Retrospective Analysis and Perspective Outlook

The September 17, 2024 summit in Astana between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the heads of Central Asian states marks a critical moment in regional diplomacy. Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasized the importance of this evolving dialogue, highlighting its strategic significance in a world grappling with geopolitical instability. As the two regions deepen their ties, this summit reflected growing attention to economic diversification, energy security, and technological cooperation.

Kazakhstan, situated at a complex geopolitical crossroads in Central Asia, is striving to maintain a delicate balance as Western powers tighten sanctions against Russia amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. While adhering to sanctions remains part of the national strategy, the country faces significant challenges in maintaining this precarious position without compromising its own economic interests or regional stability.

The legal basis of cooperation between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Azerbaijan consists of more than 170 interstate, intergovernmental, and interdepartmental agreements, including nearly 50 documents in the economic sector. Key agreements include the Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Security signed on July 3, 1997, the Declaration on Friendship and Strategic Partnership on July 3, 2008, the Declaration[1] on Allied Cooperation between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Azerbaijan on February 22, 2022, and the "Roadmap for the Development of Cooperation in Key Areas for 2024-2026," [2] signed on January 22, 2024.

The Ukrainian blogosphere has sparked a call to boycott the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) after Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin in Baku, followed by an agreement between SOCAR and Gazprom on cooperation in the gas business. This reaction reflects a complex web of emotions and political calculations in Ukraine, a country deeply scarred by Russia's ongoing aggression. Ukrainian authorities remain silent on the matter, and there seems to be a general sense of indifference in society, although the prevailing sentiments are far from straightforward.