Armenia wants to gain time and involve international forces in the process

Seven  servicemen of the Azerbaijan Army were killed during the hostilities as a result of the provocations of Armenia on November 16 at the state border; another 10 people were injured. The hostilities on the Azerbaijani - Armenian border were suspended on the evening of November 16 through the mediation of the Russian side.

What caused the tension on the border between the two countries this time? If the war is over, why are tensions re-emerging, and the parties incur losses?

Conflict expert Avaz Hasanov answered ASTNA's questions on this topic.

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Question: Avaz bey, what happened on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border in recent days? What were the reasons behind this tension?

Answer: The main reason for what is happening is that it is necessary to take steps that will lead to the logical conclusion of the 2020 war. If both sides believe that the war is over, then the Armenian side should contribute to the process of border recognition and be interested in signing a peace treaty with Azerbaijan. If the Armenian side believes that the war is not over yet and plans to go to destruction again, then the tension on the border will continue, and over time and as Armenia gains military power, it (tension - Ed.) may become even stronger ...

Question: Recent serious incidents on the border have shown that hostilities can resume at any moment. Who wants this?

Answer: The only interest here is that the Azerbaijani side, believing that peace will be achieved after the war, wants to demarcate and delimit borders as soon as possible.

Naturally, Armenia, is not interested in accelerating this process, is trying to drag it out. The military, in accordance with the responsibilities assigned to them, want to strengthen and defend their positions along the border line.

So far, the Azerbaijani side has not encountered serious obstacles in defining border points. In any case, the Armenians refrained from using heavy weapons. Now, the growing opposition protests in Armenia, accusations of treason and demands for Pashinyan's resignation, calls for settling accounts with him forced the prime minister to take tough measures to calm his society.

Question: A few days ago, referring to provocations at the border, Pashinyan dismissed the Minister of Defense. However, after a day, provocations intensify, tension grows, and losses occur. Is it possible that someone in Armenia does not take into account the will of the Prime Minister? Is Pashinyan playing a double game?

Answer: Answering the previous question, I have already touched on this topic. Pashinyan understands very well that his country has no choice both in the issue of demarcation and delimitation, and in the issue of signing a peace treaty. He knows that sooner or later he will have to do it. But he wants to gain as much time as possible and involve as many international forces as possible in this process. He hopes for the support of states. It is obvious that practically all forces are in favor of signing a peace agreement. This clearly demonstrates to Pashinyan's party the hopelessness of the situation and makes it possible to convince our people that even the states that support Armenia advise us to be ready for peace. Despite many threats against Pashinyan, his party has a majority in parliament. It is unlikely that the uncrowded rallies will force him to surrender soon.

Question: The OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs made a statement on the situation. In general, her desire to become more active has been felt lately. Is it possible that the tension is deliberately provoked to ensure the participation of the OSCE Minsk Group in this process?

Answer: The accusations and reactions of the parties in connection with the latest incident have proved that these forces are calling for negotiations and a reduction in tension. The OSCE Minsk Group and the European Union expressed their position. However, Russia was able to act as the main mediator or put pressure on the parties to stop the incident.

This means that in the coming years, Russia will have the power and influence to regulate any problems arising between the parties. The Minsk Group plays the role of a "mediating platform" here. However, the Russian side still has the ability to call the parties in an emergency.

Question: It is interesting that only the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs make statements in connection with these processes. The head of state and other officials did not comment on this in any way, did not make statements. Why do you think?

Answer: After the 44-day war, the situation has really reached a critical point. The Azerbaijani side wants to complete the demarcation of the borders in order to break the stubbornness of Armenia. In this situation, Armenia must either make an urgent decision or mobilize forces to defend its borders. If Armenia does not do this, then Azerbaijan, if possible, will drive Armenia into a corner. Russia is still playing the role of a mediator on this issue, and the statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin that “maps for defining the boundaries are available in the Office of the General Staff of Russia” indicates that direct intervention in this issue is not on the agenda. Armenia did not officially appeal to the CSTO, although it could have done so in the first hours of tension. Now, although the tension has already subsided, and the parties will remain calm, it will be pointless to turn to it. Therefore, the reaction to this incident was limited to the level of the Ministries of Defense and Foreign Affairs. In addition, any reaction of the President of Azerbaijan would not only be regarded as interference of the opposite side, but would also give more grounds for an official appeal to the CSTO. From a tactical point of view, this was the correct position.

It is clear that now the ball is on the field of Armenia. Despite losing the war, Armenia faces a difficult choice that will determine its future.

It is not so easy to make a choice against the background of internal tension, external pressure and growing tension at the border. Establishing more stable relations requires negotiations and, at the same time, the normalization of relations.

Question: This time the processes are taking place not in Karabakh, but on the border of Azerbaijan and Armenia. Even if the tension stops temporarily, there is no guarantee that it will not happen again. How far can this tension go? Can Azerbaijan launch a local anti-terrorist or again a large-scale military operation against Armenia?

Answer: The conflict on the border with Armenia has nothing to do with an anti-terrorist operation. This will only lead to a clash of positions to achieve peace by increasing bilateral tensions. Is a large-scale operation against Armenia possible? What is the need for this? Why should we complicate our situation? As a result of the war, the Azerbaijani side has achieved more than it could have expected. If everything goes as it should, then the logical conclusion of all processes will be the achievement of peace. Therefore, it is necessary to ensure that hasty decisions and rash steps do not harm.

One thing is clear - Russia and Turkey, having taken a position on the settlement of the Karabakh problem, are moving towards realizing their goals in the region. Their goal is to prevent an increase in tensions in the current situation and to prevent other forces from using these tensions to restore influence in the region.

Kamran Mahmudov