Paul Goble: Armenia will look for another defender instead of Russia, and the composition of the peacekeepers may change

(Exclusive interview with Turan of  American political anslyst Paul Goble, who in 1992 used the option of settling the Karabakh conflict, which included the idea of exchange Lachin to Megri)

- You are the author of the idea of exchanging ​​Lachin corridor to Mehri corridor. Does the recent situation around solution in Karabakh mean that your idea was realized ?

- My idea was much bigger, but the impulse behind the creation of a transit corridor between Azerbaijan and Nakchivan is an important step in the right direction and the one I advocated almost 30 years ago. I hope it will grow in importance and acquire a certain “sovereignty lite” with time.

- The statement of three leaders about solution singed on November 10 was done without  US and France.  What was the reason? What would be consicuences ?

- Russia wanted to show that it is the only power that matters in the region. The US is distracted, and France is still uncertain how to act independently. I suspect that when the new US administration comes in, Washington will begin to play a larger role again and challenge Moscow’s introduction of peacekeepers, something illegal under international law for a country that is a party to the conflict.

- How realistic is implementation of the provisions of the Statement signed by Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia?

- The important point here is that it was a joint statement not a treaty or an agreement beyond that. I suspect that there will be much testing of many of the provisions. That said, I expect the violence to ebb and Azerbaijan to focus on the task of reabsorbing the territory it has reacquired and Armenia on finding another defender now that Russia has abdicated that role.

- How do you assess the role of Turkey in this conflict ?

- Turkey played its cards well. It expanded its influence, but it also found that its ability to act is still limited by Russian opposition. I think however that Ankara’s role will grow and Russia’s will continue to decline.

- Could  be possible location in Karabakh the peace keepers  of the 3rd party?

- Of course, it is possible. It is my hope that the US and France will press for that so that the arrangements will be consistent with international law and not Russian force majeure.

- Can Azerbaijanis and Armenians live in peace in the region in the future?

- One hopes that will be possible, but it will happen only if both sides believe they get something out of hte arrangement rather than having one imposed by one or hte other or by outsiders. -16B-

Washington-Baku

13.11.2020

Paul A. Goble (born 1949) is an American analyst, writer and columnist with expertise on Russia. Trained at Miami University (B.A., 1970) and the University of Chicago (M.A., 1973), he is the editor of four volumes on ethnic issues in the former Soviet Union and has published more than 150 articles on ethnic and nationality questions. Goble served as special adviser on Soviet nationality issues and Baltic affairs to Secretary of State James Baker.

He currently teaches a course on "Islam and Geopolitics in Eurasia" as an adjunct professor at the Institute of World Politics.--0--