Principled position and good will

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-Jasur Bey, there is concern and skepticism about the recent developments in the liberated territories, as well as in Nagorno-Karabakh. It is as if people are not only uninformed but also frustrated regarding the processes taking place there. What do you think is happening? What conclusions do these processes lead to?

- It is possible to give a general assessment of the current processes, but not specific. Because the processes are not over yet. It can be said that the active phase of the conflict is over. Now the elements of the peace-ceasefire phase of the conflict are showing themselves. It is natural for people to have doubts and skepticism. Because the war did not end as many expected. Many expected that the Armenian troops would be completely withdrawn from our territories, and the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan would be fully ensured. In other words, the expectations of many were calculated as a "100 percent result". However, the signing of a tripartite statement regarding the end of hostilities and subsequent developments - for example, the intrusion of Russian peacekeepers into Karabakh (intrusion - it cannot be called anything else because the extent to which this issue is in accordance with the legislation, the Constitution of Azerbaijan, is still a matter of discussion and debate, at the same time, the Azerbaijani Parliament has not yet ratified this statement), the fact that Armenian militants still remain in our territories clearly showed that there was no "100 percent result".

There are still discussions and debates about when the Armenian militants will be withdrawn from our territories. In this context, Articles 1 and 4 of the statement are hotly-debated. According to the first article, the troops stay where they are, and according to Article 4, the Armenian militants are withdrawn as soon as the Russian peacekeepers are stationed. Which Armenian militants are we talking about now? About the Armenian militants in the recent past in Kalbajar, Lachin and Aghdam? Or about the Armenian militants currently in Khojavend, Khankendi, Khojaly, and Aghdara? This issue is under discussion. Russian President Vladimir Putin told at the press conference a few days ago that the issue should be resolved in accordance with the first article of the tripartite statement. Of course, this also causes serious dissatisfaction and concern. According to unofficial information, there are about 11,000 Armenian militants in the part of Nagorno-Karabakh currently controlled by Armenian and Russian militants. They are located in different directions of the area. It is true that their situation is not so good, we are talking about security and supply, there is a serious depression, many want to leave the territory and return to Armenia. However, the 11,000 Armenian militants can be considered a serious force to create any further "headaches" in the region in the future. It is gratifying that official Baku is currently holding intensive discussions with Russia on the issue, and the main requirement is that the Armenian militants leave the territory of Azerbaijan unconditionally or hand over their weapons and live in the territory in accordance with Azerbaijani law. I hope that these discussions will end in a positive way, and we will witness the complete elimination of Armenian militants in our territories in the first half of next year.

The main reason for skepticism in people, as you say, is that they are uninformed. The information policy of the Ministry of Defense during the military operations was very positive, but, unfortunately, it is impossible to say it now. Information on the events in Karabakh currently comes mainly from Armenian and Russian sources, which poses a very serious threat to the state's information security.

In general, I think that official Baku has conducted military operations to the necessary, possible, and sufficient level. More was not possible. It was obvious that Russia had begun to exert military and political influence and pressure on official Baku, and we have already seen its elements. Now it's the turn of diplomats. I think that there is no question of any independence of Karabakh now and in the future. It is possible to have a joint Azerbaijani-Armenian Karabakh cultural autonomy within Azerbaijan. This autonomy must be based solely on Azerbaijani laws, rights, and mutual respect. It is not and should not be about the theft of any people's cultural heritage, music, carpets, religious and historical monuments, food, traditions, etc.

- There are frequent changes on the maps. The topic of flags (the flag of the so-called regime or the flag of Azerbaijan) is on the agenda. Will all this change in favor of Azerbaijan or will it change soon?

- The issue of maps should really cause serious concern. Because it is not prepared by any amateur blogger, journalist, or NGO. The author of these maps is the Ministry of Defence of Russia. Therefore, the presence of any territorial changes in the maps published every day is a serious concern in Azerbaijani society. Recall that there was concern about Chaylaggala and Old Taghlar villages some time ago because these villages were shown on the map as territories under Armenian and Russian control, and the Armenian mass media was happy about it. Shortly after, this mistake was corrected. However, the next change was again worrying: this time Shushakend and Mukhtar villages near the city of Shusha were shown on the map as territories under Armenian and Russian control. At the same time, the northern part controlled by the Armenian militants (the territory of the former Aghdara district) was expanded in the direction of Tartar city. This has been the case for several days now. Unfortunately, the Ministry of Defence of Azerbaijan did not comment on the issue.

I would like the problem of the so-called regime's flag to be gradually resolved. This is currently the subject of very serious dissatisfaction and concern. Not only the flag but also the activities of the "leadership" of the separatist regime in Karabakh, and even receptions are unacceptable. I think that official Baku sees the solution to all these problems as a priority. Otherwise, it would be impossible to say that the Karabakh problem, separatism has been resolved, the conflict is over.

It is possible that in the first quarter of 2021, Baku and Moscow will hold intensive discussions on activities beyond Baku's control in Karabakh. Yerevan may also join the talks. I think that the Pashinyan government is showing special interest in this direction and will provide the necessary support to official Baku in solving problems. At present, the efforts and will of the parties to agree on critical points on the state borders between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the direction of Zangilan and Gubadli should be welcomed. The statements of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, his statements on the necessity to determine the state border and its aim to ensure the security of Armenia are aimed at the salvation of the Armenian people as a whole. It seems that official Yerevan has finally seen and felt the problem after 30 years, and intends to change its traditional goals and objectives. Determining the state border means that official Yerevan will soon declare, directly or indirectly, that the Nagorno-Karabakh problem is an internal problem of Azerbaijan. After that, diplomatic relations can be established between Azerbaijan and Armenia. This process, which will include Turkey too, will save Armenia comprehensively.

- According to your estimates, there are still 11,000 Armenian militants in Nagorno-Karabakh. Where did this conclusion come from and are there any reactions or changes after your research? So has your concern been answered?

- Yes, according to our research, there are currently about 11,000 Armenian militants in Karabakh. This information is collected from Armenian and Russian sources, as well as as a result of official and unofficial information disseminated by both Azerbaijan and Armenia during the military operations. There is also a logical calculation: I recalled that according to various reports, during the military operations, the Armenian side, in general, involved more than 30,000 armed forces in the conflict zone. Among them were servicemen of the Armed Forces and other military units, as well as volunteers and fighters from different countries. The losses of the Armenian side (dead, wounded, and injured) during the military operations amounted to about 8,000. At the same time, according to various reports, about 2,000 Armenian militants left the trenches during the war and returned to Armenia or abroad. After the cessation of hostilities, the Armenian side officially stated that about 20,000 Armenian servicemen remained in Karabakh and were in danger of being completely destroyed. Later, according to Armenian sources, 8,000-9,000 servicemen and volunteers returned to Armenia or were discharged. Thus, according to estimates, there are currently about 11,000 active Armenian servicemen in Nagorno-Karabakh. It is possible that their number will decrease sharply in the coming weeks, and now some of them operate independently, beyond the control of the government. According to various reports, these militants and others were required to surrender their weapons in the next two to three weeks. We must wait a while. However, it seems that in the next 1-2 months, there is no prospect of the complete elimination of the armed Armenians in Karabakh, it may take some time, maybe 5-6 months.

Official Baku has not yet informed the public in this regard. But as I said, negotiations are underway with Russia. It is possible that a positive result will be achieved in the near future.

- Does the presence of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh stabilize the situation during the disputes? What do your initial observations say? Are the peacekeepers able to perform their duties properly, or is the balance already upset?

- Russian peacekeepers are currently playing a decisive role in the disputes between the two countries in the context of the restoration of the state border. At the same time, for example, the role of Russian peacekeepers in the problem-free evacuation of Kalbajar, Lachin, and Aghdam districts became important. But sometimes it seems a bit strange. Wouldn't Armenia and Azerbaijan have solved this problem without any outsiders? Wouldn't Armenia, for example, have decided to liberate Azerbaijani lands five months ago and start demarcating its borders? It didn't happen. Obviously, this was not possible against the background of the "victorious" Armenian society; therefore, it was important to create a "defeated" Armenia.

At present, the parties do not have any serious objections or concerns about the activities of peacekeepers. I think that in the near future, there will be no serious problems in general. However, there may be occasional skirmishes and casualties. The problem with the peacekeepers will probably arise at the end of their stay in the region. If Russia does not want to leave the region, then there will be some kind of military tension between the parties, and thus the presence of Russian troops in the region for the next period will continue.

- Do you think there will be more changes in the map on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue? And what should Azerbaijan be more worried about? What should it focus on more, what should it demand that the other side's plans not be realized? And by the way, what change plans can the other side have?

- I think there will be no serious changes in the map from now on. However, in my opinion, there are a number of issues that Azerbaijan must pay special attention to and demand. The following issues are very important for the next 6 months:

• All road infrastructure in Karabakh must be accessible to Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan must have the right to use the Aghdara-Kalbajar, Aghdara-Khankendi-Shusha, Gubadli-Lachin-Shusha, Aghdam-Khankendi-Shusha, and Shusha-Girmizibazar-Fuzuli roads;
• All separatist elements in Karabakh (flag, coat of arms, "president", "government", etc.) must be abolished;
• All polygraphic names, names of settlements must be within the laws of Azerbaijan;
• Armenian militants must be expelled or disarmed;
• Azerbaijani police and other law enforcement agencies should be deployed in all settlements in Karabakh;
• Relevant state bodies of Azerbaijan (customs, police, SSS, etc.) must also be present at the checkpoint in Lachin. The entry of foreign citizens and cargo into the territory of Azerbaijan must be regulated in accordance with the law.

In my opinion, official Baku must show a firm principle in all these matters. At the same time, I think that civil society, especially the media and NGOs, have a big job to do. It is possible to hold joint projects and round tables on various topics to improve relations between nations. At the moment, it is more effective to do this on online platforms. In the post-coronavirus period, such events can be held in Khankendi, Shusha, Yerevan, and Baku.