The Trans-Caspian gas pipeline in the focus of Merkel's visit to Baku

-Interesting processes are taking place inside and outside Azerbaijan. First, the status of the Caspian, then the statement of the chairman of the parliamentary committee on Azerbaijan's membership in the CSTO, the meeting of German Chancellor Angela Merkel with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and subsequently her visit to the region and Azerbaijan, followed by the planned and expected visit of the Azerbaijani President to Russia. How do you see the invisible side of these events? What's happening?

-The processes in the world are mainly taking place against the backdrop of changes in US foreign policy. Trump"s administration turns the United States into an increasingly closed and decision-making country without the participation of partner countries. The result of this is the tension in US-EU relations with Germany, the creation of the Germany-Russia tandem with the aim of implementing the Nord Stream-2 project, the discussion of Azerbaijan's membership in the CSTO, the resolution of the issue of the status of the Caspian, and Russia's interests are gaining the upper hand. As for the status of the Caspian Sea, it can not be said that some side has won, but some have lost. This document is an agreement of compromises that can ignite both green and red light for the implementation of future projects. Russia refused to veto the construction of the Trans-Caspian pipeline. From now on, Russia can theoretically interfere with the implementation of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline passing through the Azerbaijani and Turkmen maritime sectors, citing the Protocol on Environmental Impact Assessment.

In a word, even after the signing of this agreement, uncertainty remains, and any decision will depend on political (geopolitical) conjuncture. On the other hand, after the latest US sanctuions security issues play an important role both for Russian and for Iran. Both countries are trying to prevent the deployment of foreign military bases in the Caspian. This, of course, is mainly about the United States. This situation is reflected in the Convention. In short, in the status of the Caspian, the main points of mutual reciprocity relate to the two issues listed above.

During the meeting between Putin and Merkel, the main topic discussed was the Nord Stream-2 project. The annual throughput of this gas pipeline is 55 billion cubic meters. "The Nord Stream-2 project will create conditions for doubling the capacity of the gas pipeline. The problems in NATO, the increase in duties on steel and aluminum in the transatlantic trade relations of the EU, the aggressiveness of Russia and China - at such a time, German Chancellor Angela Merkel openly declares that the global order is under pressure.

The Germans say that even in the most intense period of the Cold War they bought gas from the USSR. However, since the reign of Reagan and until now America did not like the fact that Europeans buy gas from Russians.

This question is both political and economic. The United States does not like the dependence of Western Europe on Russia. On the other hand, the US willingness to resort to sanctions is more closely related to Trump's desire to sell liquid gas to Europe. However, the German government supported the project, and Finland and Sweden allowed transit. Now, to stop the project, one can expect from Trump sanctions against the companies participating in Gazprom's projects (Uniper and Wintershall - Germany, Shell - Netherlands, OMV Austria, Engie France). Thus, the US relations with the European partners will deteriorate even more. Even if the Nord Stream-2 project does not have a direct link to the status of the Caspian, the Trans-Caspian pipeline, both projects are indirectly on the table of the current geopolitical agenda. Both questions can become the object of mutual compromises. If the Russian-German tandem in connection with the Nord Stream-2 project takes place, then the implementation of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project becomes more realistic. And this will be a concession to Russia for the "Nord Stream -2". The status of the Caspian Sea also provides an opportunity. At the Merkel-Aliyev meeting, the main theme will be the Trans-Caspian pipeline.

-"On the one hand, the side note the melting of ice in the relations between Azerbaijan and the West. That is, it is a document signed on July 12 with the EU, the release of Ilgar Mammadov, the visit of the Italian President to Azerbaijan, the visit of Ilham Aliyev to France, and then the visit of the German Chancellor. On the other hand, the warming of relations with Russia: open statements by Russia in connection with Karabakh, the statement of our deputy on the need to join the CSTO. Some experts say that membership in the CSTO will solve the Karabakh issue. Is Azerbaijan facing a serious choice?

-In 1993, Azerbaijan joined the Collective Security Agreement (the agreement came into force in 1994), and in 1999 it left the agreement. Nothing has changed for better in the life of our country over the five years. Not a single village of Karabakh was returned to us. After that, Azerbaijan was forced to change its political vector, preferring participation in the pro-Western GUAM - Organization for Democracy and Economic Development (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova), became a member of the Council of Europe. Then the National Security Concept and the Military Doctrine were adopted. Both documents reflect the integration of Azerbaijan into European institutions and deep cooperation with NATO. Both documents remain on paper, and are still valid from a theoretical point of view. In a word, membership in the CSTO contradicts the main documents of our country and is inefficient due to our ineffective experience. The likelihood of resolving the Karabakh conflict within the framework of the CSTO is in our favor, since these "solutions" actually make us dependent.

Let's consider the main issue - independence. The independence of the country does not simply mean the sovereignty of the state. It is also freedom for the ruling elite. The main concept of Aliyev's power is to maintain a balance between world forces. For example, Azerbaijan cooperates with Russia, but does not participate in its main political, economic and military projects. Alternatively, Azerbaijan cooperates with the West, but does not sign an associative agreement with the EU, does not seek deep cooperation with NATO and membership in this organization. The essence of what is happening today is that both sides (the West and Russia) came to a consensus on the existing status of Azerbaijan. That is why the West is so patient with the anti-democratic situation in our country. As for Russia, then, to a large extent, it is indifferent to the situation with human rights.

In short, to date, for Aliyev's government, the current status has brought only dividends and it is not worth changing the balance policy at this stage. Membership in the CSTO will mean that Azerbaijan has taken sides. In this situation, Aliyev's power managed to turn the topic of human rights into a bargaining chip. It takes such decisions in connection with the situation, so as not to cross the red line. The liberation of Ilgar Mammadov can be considered in this context. On the other hand, it should be noted that Azerbaijan, albeit not at this stage, but in the future can become a member of the CSTO. The ruling elite will be ready for membership only in one case, when the economic (financial) resources will end! Since, when this happens, the social and political demands will increase, there will be a probability of losing power. In order to retain power, there will be a need to take tough measures, change the concept in foreign policy. As it was said above, for Russia there is not a themes of democracy and human rights, and it will always be ready to see Azerbaijan in its military-political projects. Naturally, under the condition if there are no changes in Russia. Let the provocative speeches and interviews by the authorities do not confuse you. At the current stage, the ruling elite is disadvantaged by membership in the CSTO.

-If Azerbaijan has to refuse a balanced policy, that is, if it is necessary to make a choice, which side will it choose? Or what side should be chosen?

- As I have noted above, if there is a need to take someone's side, there is no doubt that Aliyev"s administration will choose, Russia, the CSTO. Because otherwise, Azerbaijan will have to integrate into the democratic Western bloc, which sooner or later means the loss of power. And it is possible only with the depletion of resources and geopolitical changes. I believe that if Aliyev"s power has to make a choice between political power and real estate abroad, will choose the first.

-The German Chancellor's visit has been of great interest for a long time. Even the release of Ilgar Mammadov is associated with Merkel's visit. Before the Chancellor's visit to Azerbaijan the Azerbaijanis living in Germany organized the actions, made some statements, and put forward certain requirements. Do you think there will be any positive changes in the field of human rights and democracy in Azerbaijan, or other issues will be discussed more?

The main topic of discussion at the meeting will be the Trans-Caspian pipeline, as well as the agreement, which was discussed between the EU and Azerbaijan, but not signed. In this context, the themes of human rights and democracy will be addressed. Naturally, the topic of Karabakh will also be touched upon within the framework of the topic of regional security. However, as already noted, Karabakh, democracy and other topics will remain in the shadow of the Trans-Caspian pipeline project.

The main topic of discussion at the meeting will be the Trans-Caspian pipeline, as well as the agreement, which was discussed between the EU and Azerbaijan, but not signed. In this context, the themes of human rights and democracy will be touched. Of course, the topic of Karabakh will also be touched upon within the framework of the topic of regional security. However, as I have already noted, Karabakh, democracy and other topics will remain in the shadow of the Trans-Caspian pipeline project.

-What do you expect from the visit of the Azerbaijani President to Russia? What issues will and should be discussed at this meeting? What will the result of this meeting give Azerbaijan?

Presumably, within the framework of the visit, the issue of Azerbaijan's cooperation with the CSTO will be discussed. As is known, certain changes have been made in the position of the CSTO. Countries that are not members of this organization have created conditions for participation in the status of observers. Azerbaijan can be invited to the organization to be able to take advantage of these opportunities. However, Aliyev's power would not like to change the policy of balancing.