"The Statement by the Russian Official is Full of Threats for Azerbaijan"

On September 30, a temporary commission on foreign interference and hybrid threats was established at a session of the parliament. MP Ramid Namazov has been appointed as the head of the commission.

The commission will prepare reports on cases related to foreign interference and hybrid threats and propose measures to prevent these intrusions.

It is worth noting that the director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Sergey Naryshkin, visited Baku on October 2-3. During his meetings, he discussed the international situation and the directions of mutual cooperation between the special services of the two countries.

According to Russian sources, Naryshkin stated in a conversation with journalists that the special services of Azerbaijan and Russia recently prevented a "provocative threat" by the United States against a Russian diplomat. He did not provide detailed information about the incident.

The Russian official listed international terrorism, illegal migration, the illicit trafficking of arms and drugs, and the provocative activities of certain state structures and NGOs among the numerous threats faced by Moscow and Baku. He emphasized that these actors attempt to influence the domestic policies of Russia and Azerbaijan.

During his meetings with Azerbaijani officials, it was noted that, under the current circumstances, one of the main tasks of intelligence and counterintelligence agencies is to promptly identify and prevent anti-Russian and anti-Azerbaijani provocations abroad. "The importance of strengthening joint efforts against the use of unstructured opposition groups and international terrorist organizations by foreign intelligence services to create socio-political instability in the territories of Russia and Azerbaijan has been highlighted."

Security expert Arestun Orujlu spoke to ASTNA about the real threats facing Azerbaijan.

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Question:  Arestun bey, why was it necessary to establish a temporary parliamentary commission against foreign interference and hybrid threats?

Answer: The decision to establish such a commission seems to stem from President Ilham Aliyev's speech at the first session of the new composition of the parliament. In that speech, the head of state mentioned foreign influences on the country and even hinted that Azerbaijan’s land borders have been closed for years for this reason. Previously, the official explanation for the continued closure of the country's land borders was attributed to the long-overdue COVID-19 pandemic. Interestingly, the very next day after that speech, the Cabinet of Ministers extended the quarantine period until January 1 of the following year. Such contradictory statements may exist for two reasons: either there are indeed certain threats to the country that have caused some contradictions within the government, or such statements are made to create confusion in society. Recent developments suggest that the first reason is more plausible, and the creation of this commission likely stems from that.

Question: What is the purpose of this commission?

Answer: The fact that the commission was created under the supreme legislative body indicates that it serves only one purpose: to legitimize measures to be taken under the pretext of combating potential influences and threats. In other words, to create a legal basis for such measures. Otherwise, such a body would have been established under the Cabinet of Ministers or the Presidential Administration. But first of all, a fundamental question needs to be clarified: are there really foreign interferences in the country, and if so, what do they consist of? I’m not even mentioning what is meant by hybrid threats. For example, in international political lexicon, hybrid threats are generally understood as complex military and non-military activities aimed at undermining the state or its institutions.

Question: The parliament has a Defense, Security, and Anti-Corruption Committee. Moreover, the State Security Service and the Foreign Intelligence Service are operational. Was there a need to create such a commission?

Answer: In reality, there is no need to create such a commission, but apparently, the main reason behind it is still unclear because there may be motives unrelated to threats or influences. For instance, it could be a matter of balancing the interests and positions of various groups within the government represented in the parliament. The results of the elections held on September 1 also point in this direction. For now, I would like to conclude by saying that there has never been a parliament in the history of the Republic of Azerbaijan with such a contradictory composition.

Question: What kind of foreign and hybrid threats could Azerbaijan face?

Answer: Foreign influences and hybrid threats can be directed against any state, not only small, weak ones but even superpowers like Russia, the United States, and China. These threats usually increase during periods when interests collide at inter-state, regional, and global levels. Looking at it from Azerbaijan's perspective, we cannot deny that interests are clashing at all three levels. This is natural, as interests are currently being clarified on all three levels in the South Caucasus region, and the main state in this region cannot remain unaffected. Moreover, considering that such relations are being clarified on the battlefield in the North-West and South of the South Caucasus, I am referring to the Russia-Ukraine and Iran-Israel confrontations. If we add the struggle over two conflicting global transport-communication corridors planned through the region (North-South and East-West), we can say that the situation is not promising.

Question: After Sergey Naryshkin's visit to Baku, he mentioned international terrorism, illegal migration, the illicit trafficking of arms and drugs, and the provocative activities of certain state structures and NGOs as threats faced by Moscow and Baku, saying they aim to influence the domestic policies of Russia and Azerbaijan. He emphasized that one of the primary tasks of intelligence and counterintelligence agencies is to promptly identify and prevent anti-Russian and anti-Azerbaijani provocations abroad. He noted the importance of strengthening joint efforts against the use of unstructured opposition groups and international terrorist organizations by foreign intelligence services to create socio-political instability in the territories of Russia and Azerbaijan. What conclusions can be drawn from this?

Answer: Let’s not forget that before Sergey Naryshkin, the heads of the US and UK intelligence services also visited Azerbaijan. However, unlike the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, they made no statements. Naryshkin’s statement is full of threats from start to finish. Simultaneously, a group of US legislators’ appeal to the State Department demanding sanctions against Azerbaijan should be considered a counter-threat. This is the general picture, but a detailed analysis would require a more comprehensive response. To put it briefly, in the struggle for the South Caucasus, both sides want Azerbaijan to take a position that suits their interests. One side tries to achieve this through pressure, while the other shows "care and attention." President Aliyev’s criticism of the United States suggests that Russia’s "care" seems more appealing to official Baku. There’s nothing surprising here, as Russia not only shows "care and attention" but also offers specific prescriptions, similar to what it offered to Georgia. This way, Moscow tries to show the world that Azerbaijan is on its side. Such a situation limits Azerbaijan’s maneuverability and increases risks for the country. That’s the apparent situation.

Question: Can the creation of the new commission and Naryshkin’s statements lead to new arrests? Who might be targeted?

Answer: From a theoretical and political-pragmatic perspective, the opposite could also happen. During a period when risks are rapidly increasing, the country’s leadership might choose to reject the "services" of both sides and turn to society to achieve internal consolidation by addressing concerns domestically. Because, without the involvement of internal factors, any external influence—except for military intervention—cannot be effective. Of course, this may sound like presenting the desired as reality, and it’s hard to disagree with that. Moreover, there are many factors related to external influences that stand in the way of such a path. Therefore, the second path—repressive measures—unfortunately seems more convincing. As for who might be targeted, it largely depends on which path is chosen.